Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 241746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Snow amounts coming in so far suggest snow totals may be trending
closer to higher end amounts of 12 plus inches along the
anticipated NW to SE heavy snow axis. We have received reports of
9 inches in Lowden (NE Cedar County) and 9 inches in Buchanan
County. With the upper level low still back over north central IA,
there will be several more hours of strong lift, setting up a
band of heavy wet snow roughly along an NW to SE axis from
Independence through Clinton to Bureau County IL. Near whiteout
conditions were still observed as of midday with significant
impacts on travel along and north of I-80 based on the DOT

A dry slot further southwest, currently SE of the upper low, may
result in a period of light precipiation in the form of drizzle
with fog over SE IA and NE MO until mid to late afternoon when
light snow should spread back south into the area. On the other
side of the system, precipitation has yet to fall in Freeport and
this area may remain dry with brisk east winds. The forecast has
been updated to reflect these trends.


Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A strong early spring storm system if producing snow, heavy at times
across the northern 1/2 of the region with some thunder-snow noted.
Snow totals of 1 to over 3 inches have occurred with the system on
track to produce warning snow criteria over much of the region along
with gusty east winds into the evening. Below normal temperatures will
continue through the weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average with main
concern is location of heavy, wet snow with the system the next 6-12
hours. many location snow totals could be 3 inches or more off with
main axis possible 20 miles or more further south a real possibility
with much less snow totals in NW Illinois a concern.

Today...a wet snow heavy at times with some thunder-snow this morning
to near the highway 34 corridor. Then rain mixing with snow or changing
to snow this afternoon in the south. Easterly winds up to 35 mph are
expected with some drifting of the snow in the north. Highs mostly
in the mid 30s north to the upper 30s south.

Tonight...the snow will diminish to flurries and end by mid evening
with an inch or less of additional accumulations expected. Clearing
expected north and northwest with mins with locations that receive
several inches of snow the mins may be at least 3 plus degrees too

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A moderate rain or mostly rain event late Monday into Tuesday with
rain totals generally below and inch the main issue.

Long Term Forecast Assessment...fair or average with main issue is
temperatures in areas with new snow possibly few to several
degrees too mild a question until complete melting occurs by
Monday evening.

Sunday and Monday...fair and seasonably cool with highs 30s and
40s with lows mostly in the 20s on Monday morning.

Monday night and Tuesday...rain, possibly mixed with sleet early or
maybe isolated, brief freezing rain toward Tuesday AM possible.
Mostly moderate rain totals with some embedded, non-severe storms
possible. Highs in 50s and possibly low 60s with lows in the 30s.

Wednesday through Saturday...mostly fair and dry with slightly
below normal temperatures. Highs mostly 45 to 55 with lows mostly
in the 25 to 35 degree range.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Strong winter storm system moving through the region this
afternoon will result in widespread IFR to LIFR conditions due to
low visibilities in heavy snow and low ceilings. CID and MLI will
be most heavily impacted by this storm. Strong and gusty east
winds will remain at 20 to 30 kts will continue through the
afternoon, then diminish significantly by evening. The snow will
end from NW to SE this evening, with conditions trending toward
VFR, but the timing of this is low confidence. VFR conditions are
then expected from late tonight through Sunday morning.


IA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Benton-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Keokuk-

IL...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for Bureau-
     Carroll-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Putnam-Rock Island-Whiteside.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for Mercer-



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