Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
000
FXUS66 KEKA 260128
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
241 PM PDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

An approaching closed low from the west will bring precipitation
and possible some thunderstorms to the region and outer waters
Thursday evening into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

As for tonight, coastal stratus will persist with fog developing
along the coastline and over the outer waters. This marine layer
will penetrate inland again bringing fog to the inland valleys.
Models keep this low level stratus in the forecast through
Thursday afternoon and evening. A negatively tilted closed low
will approach the California coast during Thursday afternoon and
evening.For Thursday, above normal temperatures are expected to
continue with anomalously warm air across the Pacific Northwest
and northern portions of California.

The next talking point will be the potential for some
thunderstorms during Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected as the low moves right into California coast. We`ll
see showers at first, but thunderstorms are expected Friday
afternoon as potential instability increases. None of these
thunderstorms are expected to be severe since potential
instability is really lacking Friday.

The low will continue it`s eastward track Saturday into Sunday
with moist cool onshore flow continuing in it`s wake. Some upper
level energy moving in behind this low will bring some more rain
to the region Sunday evening. Storm total rain for this system
should be around 0.20 inches possibly up to 0.40 inches over some
of the mountains and ridges.

Finally, a broad area of high pressure and weak offshore flow is
expected to build Monday through Wednesday next week. Therefore,
look for dry conditions and some warming after the weekend.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...Marine stratus will remain entrenched along the coast
for the next 24 hours. Overall, expect IFR, though conditions likely
lower to LIFR again tonight at KCEC/KACV, and then last through at
least 18z Friday. Inland, VFR prevails tonight into Friday morning.
Expect some lower stratus/fog to develop over the inland river
valleys again overnight into Friday morning.

Models show MVFR/IFR ceilings developing near KUKI late this evening
and overnight, but conditions may be similar to what occurred last
night with VFR prevailing all night at the airport. For now, have
prevailed VFR, and will re-evaluate based on satellite trends at
later TAF issuances.

-Spilde


&&

.MARINE...A weak low offshore will gradually slide east, moving
inland roughly around Saturday. Until then, expect light to moderate
south to southwest winds and relatively light swell dominated seas
of 7 feet or less.

Once the upper level trough moves inland Sunday, north winds will
return as the thermal trough reestablishes itself, then increase
through Monday. By Monday afternoon, winds are expected to
strengthen considerably, with sustained winds in excess of 30 kts
possible, especially south of Cape Mendocino. These stronger winds,
as well as the resulting very steep wind driven seas of over 10
feet, are likely to then continue into Tuesday.

-Nieuwenhuis


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.