093
FXUS64 KHGX 152305
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 PM Tue Jul 15 2025

- Lower rain chances through Thursday. Isolated showers and
  thunderstorms may still occur, in particular during the
  afternoon hours.

- Rain chances are expected to increase again late Thursday into
  early Saturday.

- Still monitoring the tropics (northeast & north central Gulf).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

We might still have a chance for additional development of
isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms through
early this evening, although the GOES TPW imagery is already
showing some drier air creeping into the Matagorda Bay region
early this afternoon. For tonight, mostly tranquil conditions
expected with low temperatures in the lower 70s over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 70s over areas
near and south of I-10, and the lower 80s along the coasts.

The drier air will make its way further inland on Wednesday and
stick around through Thursday, resulting in even lower chances of
rain. The high temperatures could creep up a bit on Wednesday and
may range in the mid 90s for several locations. Heat Indices are
expected to range between 101 and 106 deg F, and hopefully, the
drier air will help keep us out of a Heat Advisory for Wednesday.
Regardless, it is summertime and conditions are typically hot
enough to cause heat stress if not taking the appropriate
precautions.

Rain chances will be on the rise from late Thursday into Friday,
as a disturbance or area of low pressure with higher levels of
moisture moves in from the east or southeast (Refer to the
Tropical discussion for more details on this disturbance). Our
local PWs are expected to rise to 2.0-2.4 inches as this feature
moves across our area and could result in periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall at times. Rain chances will decrease Saturday into
Sunday as the disturbance either weakens or moves out of SE TX and
drier air moves in.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Isolated afternoon showers/storms will taper off this evening as
light and variable winds settle in across the region. Patchy fog
and CIGS may develop over portions of the region during the early
morning hours of Wednesday. MVFR conditions may develop with IFR
FLs possible in some spots, mostly north of Houston. Conditions
improve after daybreak with VFR largely dominating across the
area. Southwest winds strengthen during the daytime, shifting
south/southeast during the afternoon, then becoming light again
in the evening.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3
feet will continue for the next few days. We are expecting lower
rain chances through Thursday as drier air filters across the
region. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected
to increase as a tropical disturbance moves into SE TX from the
northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding
the development and track of this disturbance and more information
will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. The 2PM
EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, continued a 40% chance of formation
through the next 48 hours. Please continue to monitor the
upcoming forecasts.

Cotto

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Based on the 2PM Tropical Weather Outlook, an area of low
pressure is currently moving east over north central portions of
FL and is expected to move into the northeastern Gulf waters on
Wednesday. Environmental conditions may be favorable for further
development as the system continues moves into the north central
portions of the Gulf and a tropical depression could form as it
approaches the coast of LA. There`s still uncertainty regarding
the strength and track of this system and more information will be
known once the system moves into the Gulf waters. Regardless of
formation, the system could bring periods of moderate to heavy
rainfall over portions of Southeast TX from late Thursday into
late Friday.

Please continue to monitor the progress of this system as well as
the latest forecasts.

Cotto

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  93  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  95  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  82  92  80  91 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cotto