Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 192343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
643 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR. Main "issue" will be the slight shift with winds from the NE
tonight to the E tomorrow and then SE by the late afternoon/early
evening. High clouds will also be on the increase from the W/SW.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
Light to moderate winds from the northeast and mostly clear skies
will persist through the remainder of the evening. Minimum
temperatures tonight will range from the upper-40s inland to
upper-50s along the coast. Clouds will slowly build in tonight
from the northwest, leading to a partly cloudy day Friday with
high temperatures around 70. Winds veer to southeasterly
throughout the day Friday with the onshore flow increasing
moisture in Southeast Texas.

An upper-level trough will track across Texas on Saturday. While
500 mb flow strengthens throughout the day and winds aloft remain
divergent, the dynamic forcing with this system remains marginal.
At this point, it looks like Saturday morning will have a few
sparse showers across the region. As the atmosphere destabilizes
throughout the day, some of these showers will become
thunderstorms as a warm front moves northeastward over the CWA
during the afternoon. Weak instability throughout the day will be
the limiting factor for widespread convection on Saturday. MUCAPE
values peak around 500-1000 J/kg during the afternoon and
overnight ahead of the front. Some of these storms may become
strong, but the threat for severe hail and winds is marginal. A
broken line of thunderstorms will progress from north to south on
Saturday night as the cold front passes through the area. The
front will clear the coastline by mid-morning Sunday with a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering Sunday morning.
Overall precipitation totals will be 0.5"-1.00", with isolated
amounts up to 2.00". The flash flood threat is not zero, but low.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...
Skies will clear during the day Sunday with high temperatures in
the mid-70s as a series of high pressure systems build into the
area from the northwest. An upper-level ridge and NW flow aloft
will dominate our weather next week with skies remaining mostly
clear Monday through Wednesday. High temperatures will stay near
80 with lows increasing from the mid- 50s to near 60. Rain chances
stay low with offshore winds prevailing. Thursday, surface high
pressure translates westward over the Mississippi Valley, leading
to the return of onshore flow and rain chances. 22

Breezy NE winds and elevated seas will gradually diminish throughout
the rest of the afternoon and evening. Breezy E winds are expected
tomorrow with onshore flow returning Saturday. Tides could approach
3 feet Saturday morning, which may cause some wave run up along HWY
87 on Bolivar. A cold front should push off the coast overnight
Saturday night or early Sunday morning. 11


College Station (CLL)      50  70  55  72  54 /   0   0  10  70  50
Houston (IAH)              53  71  60  76  62 /   0   0  10  60  50
Galveston (GLS)            59  68  65  76  66 /   0   0  10  40  40



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