Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 261050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
350 AM PDT Sat May 26 2018

A low pressure system will continue moving across the area today
and will move into Nevada by this evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the foothills and higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada through Monday. Weak high
pressure will return by Monday with a warming and drying trend.


Unsettled conditions continue over the Central California Interior
this morning as an upper level low spins over the region. Will
expect a continuation of light showers through out the morning
hours as PVA energy and orographic lift support possible
precipitation. Current regional Doppler radar imagery show heavier
precipitation falling over Northern California with very light
(drizzle) observed near the Grapevine in the up-slope flow area.
While mesonet observation were not reporting precipitation between
Mettler and Lebec, Caltrans webcams were showing a wet camera
this morning. As vort lobe energy rotates around the upper low
today, will expect a continuation of unsettled conditions through
the Memorial Day weekend.

Sunday will see a continuation of the unsettled conditions under a
cyclonic flow pattern. Yet, with the axis of the upper low
shifting further eastward on Sunday, will expect the showers (and
possible convection) confined to the Sierra Nevada under a more
stable environment for the lower elevation locations. Furthermore,
most of the district will be under a northerly flow pattern which
will start the drying process but maintain the cool conditions.
Monday will see a change in the weather (temperature-wise) as the
upper low lifts toward the Northern Rockies and a ridge of high
pressure moves ashore over the west coast. At that point, possible
convection will become more isolated as a warming trend begins.

After a month of below to near seasonal normal temperatures,
Monday will see temperature return back into the 90s. Yet, now
that June quickly approaches, normal conditions are nearing the 90
degree mark, which places Monday temperature at only a few degrees
above the seasonal norm. These conditions will continue for a few
more days as longer range models prog another disturbance over the
West Coast later next week. Therefore, the warming trend will be
short-lived as cooler temperature return toward the Thursday time
frame. Model are showing higher confidence levels with next weeks
disturbance in the form of cooling temperatures. However, in the
realm of precipitation, models are less confidence of
precipitation making down into Central California. Therefore, will
keep the district dry for now and re-evaluate the potential for
precipitation as model consensus grows toward the strength of the
trof passage.


Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms with mountain obscurations
over the higher elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada from 19z
Saturday through 03Z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
elsewhere across the Central CA Interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


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