981
FXUS64 KLUB 150518
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1218 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Dry today with seasonably hot temperatures.

 - Storm chances return every afternoon and evening Wednesday
   through Friday.

 - The best storm chances will be Thursday evening across the
   Caprock.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

At the beginning of the period a subtle upper-level shortwave trough
will shift eastward leaving behind weak 250mb northwest flow
resulting in a mid-level ridge over the region. Continual southerly
low-level flow will usher in another sub-tropical airmass into the
region.

Due to the departure of the upper-level trough, warmer temperatures
aloft will keep the atmosphere mostly capped as compared to Monday,
and as such, lower POPs are expected across the region Tuesday.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected across the region.

KL/GF

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

In the mid/upp0er-levels, the subtropical ridge will continue to
flatten, as a potent shortwave trough ejects into the northern Great
Plains. The center of the 500 mb ridge will be centered over the
Four Corners region, with a barotropic (cut-off) low still rotating
offshore Baja California. Mid-level flow will remain significantly
dampened, with basal 250 mb troughing persisting over the southern
Great Plains. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front should be
located across western KS and into the Raton Mesa, and is forecast
to continue moving southward, with its movement aided by convective
reinforcement. Winds will remain breezy, as lee cyclogenesis
continues in the western High Plains from the intensifying component
to the cross-barrier flow accompanying the base of the shortwave
trough, but the isallobaric response will remain weak. Seasonably
hot temperatures are expected Wednesday, with highs peaking in the
middle 90s area-wide, as geopotential height tendencies remain
nearly neutral. The low-level jet will intensify Wednesday night
beneath a belt of northwesterly 250 mb flow, with the potential for
WAA-induced showers and storms forecast late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning across portions of the CWA.

The barotropic low offshore Baja California will open up Thursday,
with a 250 mb jet streak forecast to intensify on its eastern flank
which will impart some baroclinity into the region as it translates
northeastward. The northern-stream jet streak will continue to
amplify over the northern U.S. as well, and the net result will be a
modest increase in high-level difluence while the CWA remains close
to the right-entrance region to the northern-stream jet streak. PoPs
remain highest Thursday night across portions of the Caprock, as the
slow-moving cold front, which will be convectively-reinforced, sags
southward. Mesoscale details remain unclear, but the best potential
for strong to perhaps low-end, severe-caliber wind gusts. NAEFS/ENS
guidance continues to indicate less than impressive PWAT anomalies,
with values <2 standard deviations above seasonal norms, so the risk
for widespread, excessive rainfall is low. Flash flooding potential
will, therefore, remain localized, especially as the MCS begins to
decay as it moves into portions of the Caprock after sunset. Storm
chances are then forecast to dwindle heading into the weekend, but
remain confined to the western zones as the monsoon returns to the
Desert Southwest and into the southern Rocky Mountains.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR with light S winds tonight increasing to 10-15 knots by
the afternoon. Just a slim chance of TS this afternoon anywhere in
the area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...93