Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211130 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
630 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Light and
variable wind this morning will gradually swing to the south with
speeds increasing to between 10 to 15 knots by the afternoon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018/

Minimal adjustments made to the forecast through the weekend. Dry
northwesterly flow aloft today into tomorrow will yield to a
progressive upper ridge late Thursday into early Friday. At the
surface southerly winds will become breezy this afternoon as West
Texas is sandwiched between surface troughing in the lee of the
Rockies and a broad surface ridge centered across the Mississippi
River Valley. These southerly winds will persist through late week
with moisture gradually advecting northward through much of the
state. This pattern will support a steady warming trend the next few
days, though we did favor the lower end of guidance today given the
considerable amount of mid-upper level clouds that will traverse
the region during the middle part of the day. Even so, highs will
be in the 70s today, with middle 80s expected tomorrow.

As the upper ridge shifts east a quick moving disturbance is still
progged to be carried through the evolving southwesterly flow from
the Desert Southwest into the central High Plains Friday. As this
happens, surface cyclogenesis will take place over the eastern
plains of Colorado with the low translating into Kansas during the
afternoon. This will act to veer the flow locally as the attendant
trough axis shifts eastward, with warm/hot, dry and breezy to low-
end windy conditions overspreading the South Plains. In addition to
threatening/breaking record highs (highs will be in the upper 80s
and lower 90s), elevated to critical fire weather will also be
likely. Minor cooling (5 to 10 degrees) will follow the shortwave
to kick off the weekend as a weak front sags into the region.
This front may temper winds somewhat, at least for parts of the
area on Saturday, before breezy southwesterly flow wins out again
late weekend.

The weather may then turn more interesting moving into next week as,
for the moment, medium range NWP is in better agreement that a
closed upper low will develop over the Desert Southwest and then
slowly propagate eastward toward West Texas. Initially, low-level
moisture/instability may reside just close enough to bring a risk
of dryline storms across our eastern zones as soon as Monday. As
the flow gradually backs ahead of the upper low moisture and
shower/storm chances would then expand westward. Widespread rain
chances could potentially unfold for the region by the middle to
end of next week if the 00Z GFS and ECMWF are close to correct
with a cold front settling into the region in advance of the
approaching upper low. It`s too early to get excited about this
just yet when mired in a drought, but it certainly bears watch.




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