Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 210210

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1010 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Complex low pressure and an associated frontal system will
move offshore tonight, with the low intensifying as it moves to
the northeast late tonight into Wednesday. High pressure will
then build in from the northwest into the weekend. Another storm
system may approach the area early next week.


As of 1000 PM Tuesday...There are 2 areas of precipitation to
track this evening. The first is over the area mainly east of
Highway 17 was associated with strong to severe convection to
the south along the cold front moving into the more stable
airmass behind the front over Eastern NC. Some brief local
downpours accompany this activity. The second area is over
Central NC and is associated with the developing upper low. This
activity should move over our northern coastal plain after
midnight. The models remain in strong agreement that both of
these precipitation areas will be diminishing rapidly after 6Z
(2 AM) as dry slotting occurs with a developing surface low off
of the NC coast. Thus plan no changes to current PoP/Wx forecast
with categorical PoPs decreasing to chance. Decent northerly
surge behind the front is forecast to diminish after midnight as
the flow backs to the NW. Went with a blend of the colder
MET/ECMWF MOS with lows in the mid to upper 30s inland to the
low to mid 40s immediate coast.


As of 325 PM Tuesday...Wednesday will be a raw cool day more
reminiscent of January with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 40s over most of the CWA as rain gradually diminishes in
coverage during the afternoon. Despite the widespread nature of
the rain, QPF will be very light, only a few hundreths of an
inch most likely.


AS of 400 AM Tuesday...

Wednesday Night...The low pressure system will be to the NE of
the area lifting towards the New England region. Significant
amount of wrap around moisture on the back end of the low
coinciding with cold air aloft. Similar to the previous system
last week, thermodynamics profiles show support for snow, but
with the warm boundary layer at the surface this will result
with most of the snow to melt. As the boundary layer cools and
forcing still exist... think some snow can mix in with the
rain...mostly over the northern counties and coastal plains
Wednesday night. Still not forecasting snow accumulations due to
a warm boundary layer, but will continue to monitor.

Expect cooler temperature on Wednesday with highs the 40s. Overnight
lows low to mid 30s inland and mid 30s along the OBX.

Thursday through Saturday...Conditions will improve Thursday as
drier air starts to filter into the region as high pressure builds
in from the NW and lasting through Saturday. Expect highs in the low
50s inland and mid/upper 40s OBX Thursday, then temps will slightly
increase each day, but remain in the 50s inland and upper 40s/low
50s OBX. Overnight lows will range in the low/mid 30s inland and
upper 30s/low 40s Thursday and Friday night. Saturday overnight lows
are expected to be in the 40s.

Sunday through early next week...Models continue to show another low
pressure system developing over the central plains, and progged to
move along the boundary towards the region on Sunday. There remains
some model differences as the 20/00z GFS continue to have high
pressure still dominating the area while the low weakens along the
boundary. The 20/00z Euro shows the high lifting north as the low
moves along the boundary towards the border of NC/VA bringing more
rain across the area. Then both models agree with high pressure
building back in from the north. Have lean towards the Euro/WPC
guidance for this forecast period. Expect highs to range in the 50s
and overnight lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s closer to the


Short Term /through 18Z Wednesday/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...High confidence in sub VFR conditions
through most of the TAF period. Widespread light rain will
produce MVFR visibilities at times along with IFR ceilings
through about midnight then precipitation should taper off with
the IFR ceilings continuing through Wednesday morning. While
light rain is expected to redevelop Wednesday it is not expected
to have much effect on visibility. IFR ceilings should improve
to MVFR in the afternoon with even VFR ceilings possible by
around 8 PM. Gusty N-NE winds to 25 kt this evening will
diminish after midnight as the flow backs to the NW.

As of 4 AM Tue...Expect sub-VFR conditions with possible IFR
associated with a low pressure system moving NE away from NC
Wednesday Night. As the low lifts, there is a chance for a mix
of rain/snow to effect the inland TAFs (PGV/ISO) Wednesday
night. VFR conditions will return Thursday through the weekend
as high pressure dominates the area.


Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/...
As of 1000 PM Tuesday...Small Craft Advisories are now in
effect for all of the Sounds and coastal waters. The "Wedge"
cold front has moved south of the waters with a strong Northerly
surge 20 to 30 kt with a few gusts to 35 kt which will continue
through the evening hours as low pressure develops off the
coast this evening. As the low begins to track NE away from the
area late tonight and Wed, the flow will back to the NW late
tonight and briefly diminish to to 10 to 20 kt, then increase
back to 20 to 25 kt Wed as cold advection strengthens behind the
departing low. Seas will build to 6 to 9 ft tonight and
continue on Wed.

As of 4 AM Tue... Small Craft conditions will last through most
of the week as the low pressure system moves up the east coast.
NW winds 20-25 knots with seas peaking around 8-9 ft over the
central and northern waters, while 4-6 ft south Wednesday night
into Thursday. Both winds and seas will start to gradually
subside Thursday with winds becoming 10-20 knots and seas at or
slightly above 6 ft over the central and northern waters, while
3-5 ft south. Saturday marine conditions look much better with
north winds around 10 knots and seas 2-4 ft.


NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Wednesday to noon EDT Thursday
     for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.


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