108
FXUS01 KWBC 061936
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Mon May 06 2024

Valid 00Z Tue May 07 2024 - 00Z Thu May 09 2024


...The active spring pattern continues across much of the Plains
into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...

...Severe weather threat Monday afternoon into Monday night from
the Central to Southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley,
spreading into the Ohio Valley Tuesday...

...Heavy rains and flooding possible across portions of the
Northern High Plains and eastern portions of the Central to
Southern Plains...

...Elevated to Critical Fire weather conditions across the
Southern High Plains...

...Late season heavy snows for the Northern Rockies...

...Much below average temperatures expected across the Great
Basin, Central to Northern Rockies, while above average
temperatures are forecast across much of the Plains to the east
coast...


There is no let up in sight for the active Spring time weather
pattern across large portions of the nation.  The next strong
frontal boundary is forecast to push into much of the Plains
tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley regions on Tuesday.  Thunderstorm activity currently
beginning to develop across portions of the Central Plains is
expected to continue strengthen and expand across portions of the
Central to Southern Plains late this afternoon into Monday night
and spread eastward into the Lower Missouri Valley by early
Tuesday.  There is a moderate to high risk of severe weather
across portions of the Central to Southern Plains with large hail,
high winds and tornadoes possible.  Along with the severe weather
threat, heavy rains are also likely across eastern portions of the
Central to Southern Plains from from the eastern Dakotas, south
through southwest Minnesota, much of Iowa, western Missouri,
eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma.  Across
these areas the expected heavy rains may lead to areas of flash
and river flooding.  Heavy rains and flooding also possible across
portions of the Northern High Plains from eastern Montana into far
northeast Wyoming.  This next batch of heavy rains will be falling
well to the north of portions of Texas that have seen very heavy
amounts over the past week.

The heavy rain, flooding and severe weather threat will be pushing
farther to the east during Tuesday with areas from the Ohio
Valley, northward into the Great Lakes having the potential for
highly impactful weather.  This impactful weather will likely
continue across the Ohio Valley region on Wednesday and expand
into the Tennessee Valley and Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley as
addition heavy rains, severe storms and flooding develop ahead of
the next strong system to push into the Mississippi Valley by mid
week.

No precipitation is expected over the next few days across the
Southern High Plains.  This along with lower relative humidities
and windy conditions will support an elevated to critical fire
weather threat over the next several days from southeast Colorado,
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region, south through much of New
Mexico and far West to Southwest Texas.  Red Flag warnings are
currently in effect across these area for the extended period of
fire weather danger.

Late season winter weather will be hanging on over the next two
days across portions of the Central to Northern Rockies and Great
Basin from central Idaho, western Montana into western Wyoming,
northeast Utah and north central Colorado.  Winter Storm warnings
and winter weather advisories are currently in effect across these
areas for the potential of late season heavy snow.

Much below average temperatures expected over the next two days
across the Great Basin, Central to Northern Rockies with high
temperatures 20 to 25 degrees colder than average.  In
contrast...above average temperatures are expected to stretch
across much of the Plains, eastward to the east coast.  Record
high overnight lows are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday
morning from the Southeast, through the Southern Appalachians,
Upper Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic.  Scattered record
high temperatures are possible by Wednesday and Thursday from far
South Texas, across the Gulf Coast and into portions of Florida.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$