655
FXUS63 KBIS 101135
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions expected today. Breezy northwest winds
  could gust to around 35 MPH today, mainly in the south,
  central, and east.

- Warm temperatures continue through the weekend. Dry conditions
  expected for Saturday, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm
  possible on Sunday. Breezy west winds could continue for
  Saturday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures expected next week,
  as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Clear skies with some high clouds are currently being found
across the CWA. Other than a few minor adjustments to sky cover
to account for some of these high clouds, limited updates
needed at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Clipper system looks to push across eastern portions of the
state today, and bring a weak and mainly dry frontal passage.
The main result of this will be some breezy northwest winds to
much of southern, central, and eastern portions. The strongest
winds aloft look to pass through during the morning hours, while
pressure falls are generally found this afternoon. Thus stronger
winds are not expected today, although gusts of 35 to perhaps 40
MPH are possible. Influence from the ridge to our east and poor
jet dynamics aloft should maintain a mainly dry forecast today
as well as generally clear to partly cloudy skies. This ridge
may also be enough to maintain mild temperatures today, with
little cooling expected from the mentioned frontal passage. With
warm temperatures in the 70s, RH dropping into the 20s, and
breezy conditions some increased fire weather concerns are
possible today. Fuels still look green, and rate of spread looks
on the modest side. Thus the overall fire weather threat should
remain limited for today. An interesting note for tonight...the
Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a rare G4
Geomagnetic Storm Watch due to an active sun ejecting multiple
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) towards earth. This goes into
effect tonight into Saturday. Timing will be key if northern
lights are viewable during this event. However the forecast for
tonight is mainly clear with diminishing winds and low
temperatures in the 40s. This combined with a favorable moon
phase will make ideal conditions for any sky gazers looking to
catch a glimpse of northern lights. Those looking to do so
should check the latest space weather conditions on the SWPC`s
website, and weather.gov for the latest weather conditions.

A surface low then looks to move across southern Canada on
Saturday. This puts ND in the warm sector with perhaps some
breezy westerly winds. Temperatures could warm to near 80
degrees for some areas. As the day and evening progresses a weak
front could enter into the north. This could bring an isolated
shower or thunderstorm, although dry air in place will make it
difficult for precipitation to reach the ground. Thus limited
PoPs on Saturday to less than 15 percent. There could be some
more fire weather concerns on Saturday, although the green fuels
will once again limit the overall fire weather threat. The weak
front fully moves through Sunday with a return to northwest
flow. Winds will diminish and become northerly, and temperatures
will slightly cool yet remain mild. The northwest flow could
open the door for a weak disturbance to move through during the
afternoon and nighttime hours. Thus slight chances for showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Sunday through Sunday
night.

Clusters for next week still showing either a zonal flow or a
northern trough flow aloft. The end result is near to perhaps
slightly above normal temperatures, yet near daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms. Deterministic models showing a
surface low followed by this northern trough moving through
earlier in the week. Depending how this setup perhaps more
increased chances for precipitation are warranted, with even an
isolated stronger storm possible as indicated by the CSU-MLP.
Perhaps mid week a break in precipitation will be found before
the next trough pattern sets up, although the different timing
scenarios of this keeps near daily PoP chances in the forecast.
Temperature spreads still remain large in this pattern, although
still favor near to perhaps slightly above normal. This keeps
highs in the 60s to perhaps lower 70s, and lows generally above
freezing and in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mainly
clear skies are expected today, with periods of high clouds and
a few afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds also possible. Some
breezy northwest winds are possible tonight into this evening.
These winds will then go light tonight before becoming west
southwesterly later tonight. Dry conditions are expected through
the forecast.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin