915
FXUS62 KFFC 101754
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
154 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Forecast remains on track. High cloud debris continues to thin and
push E. Lingering stratocumulus and cumulus clouds continue to
produce partly to mostly cloudy skies across much of the area
(thickest clouds from N of CSG to N of MCN). Drier air at cloud level
will eventually allow these clouds to thin from the N, but
occasionally mostly cloudy skies will remain possible S of a cold
front which is sinking S thru the area. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms remain possible along and S of the front this
afternoon, with the best chances near and S of MCN. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 - Thunderstorms will bring widespread rainfall to central
   Georgia this morning.

 - A frontal passage today will result in cooler and less humid
   weather on Saturday.

Today and Saturday:

The initial weather concern today will be an MCS moving out of
Alabama. General thinking is that the MCS will track eastward this
morning along an outflow boundary and instability gradient left by
prior convection (from yesterday and overnight). This boundary
currently stretches from south central Alabama into southern Georgia
and is nearly stationary. Assuming storms follow this boundary, the
greatest potential for severe weather though noon today should be
over southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Any storms in
central Georgia should be elevated and working with an atmosphere
that has been chewed up and spit out by several rounds of
thunderstorms over the last 24 hours. Thus the severe weather
potential for places like Columbus and Macon should be towards the
lower end of the scale. The primary hazards with any stronger storms
would be damaging wind gusts or hail. Thunder could occur as far
north as Atlanta this morning, but severe weather is not anticipated
due to a lack of appreciable instability.

An airmass shift will occur this afternoon as a cold front sweeps
through Georgia. The front will announce it presence via the arrival
of gusty northwest winds this afternoon. Sustained winds between 10
and 20 mph are expected along with peak wind gusts in the 25 to 35
mph range. Drier air will move in behind the front and this will
bring any lingering precipitation in central Georgia to an end this
evening.

By Saturday morning a cooler and drier airmass should be firmly in
place across the Southeast. This will set the region up for a very
pleasant start to the weekend, with high temperatures in the mid to
upper 70s and low humidity (35-45%). Northwest winds should continue
in the region on Saturday. While the winds will decline some compared
to today, peak gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range are still anticipated
in the afternoon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

 - Quiet weather will continue in the region Sunday and Monday.

 - Two additional rounds of widespread rainfall are probable in
   Georgia between Tuesday and next weekend.

The Outlook for Next Week:

Next week should begin with a surface high and upper level ridging
over the Southeast. Due to this pattern Sunday and Monday should
feature dry weather and average to slightly below average high
temperatures. Atlanta can expect a high in the upper 70s on Sunday
and a high near 80 on Monday.

Looking further into the upcoming week it looks like the Southeast
will be in for at least two more rounds of widespread rainfall. Both
the GEFS and EPS show consistent signals for a round of rainfall
Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a second round of precipitation
next weekend. The time of year and strength of the troughs driving
both rounds of precipitation suggest at least some potential for
stronger thunderstorms with both events. Some localized flooding
concerns could also develop by next weekend, and it is worth noting
that multiple GEFS and EPS members are indicating rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches with second potential rain event.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Cold front currently bisects the area, with the thickest CU field
along and S of the front still affecting MCN and CSG. CU N of the
frontal surface has occasionally gone BKN as well, both from the
delayed drying at cloud level and the flattening of cloud elements
beneath a subsidence inversion. Expect continued thinning and lifting
of the low cloud deck through the remainder of the afternoon.
Thicker clouds across TN may make it S of the state line as they
continue to slowly erode, but don`t think another cig will make it to
the N terminals. However, did include a prolonged period of SCT at
RYY. A few showers remain possible near MCN for the next several
hours (included VCSH). Any tstm activity that can get going across S
central GA should be SE of the terminal. Gusty NW winds should
decouple in the early evening.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          52  77  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         55  77  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  70  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    50  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        57  80  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     53  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           56  79  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            50  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  53  77  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         59  79  60  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...SEC