316
FXUS62 KFFC 141834
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Highlights:

- Cool, cloudy and breezy conditions continue through Sunday.

- Rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected for most of the area
(lowest rain chances and lack of thunder in the far northeast)
through Sunday.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday morning.

The remnant low of Francine meandering across the southern portions
of the Mid-South and a wedge in place across much of North GA has
made for a dreary Saturday. Temperatures remain on the cooler side
again today with current readings in the low 70s. Waves of rain,
oriented NW to SE, continue to move through much of the forecast
area with more notable showers across west-central and southwest GA
this afternoon. Cloud cover has limited instability and current GOES
imagery shows any thunder well to the south and east of the forecast
area. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out for areas east of I-75
and south of I-20 but chances remain quite low.

The primary concern through the remainder of the day will the
potential for flooding. Though the soils in south-central GA can
generally take on a little more rainfall than areas north of the
fall line, rainfall over the last 24 hours has moistened the soils
in those areas quite a bit. Thus any additional rains may result in
rises to creek, streams, and potentially lead to localized flooding.
The latest forecast has additional totals up to 1.5" through Sunday
for areas south of I-20 and west of I-75. Areas north of I-20 and
east of I-75 will generally see lower rainfall totals. The Flood
Watch remains in place through Sunday morning.

Rain chances start to lessen as we head into Sunday morning. Though
chances do pick back up briefly primarily for southwest and extreme
south-central GA. The remnants of Francine will still be hanging
around portions of the Mid-South and a surface low will be present
off the Carolina Coast. Thinking the wedge may initially keep low
clouds and misty conditions around on Sunday but we`ll need to
continue monitoring the developing low off the Carolina coast as
we head towards the next work week.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Key Messages:

 - A gradual warming trend is expected during this period, with high
temperatures returning to 2 to 6 degree above seasonal averages by
Thursday.

 - Apart from a few showers or isolated thunderstorms on Monday and
Tuesday, dry weather is favored during this period.

Monday through Saturday Trends:

Guidance from the EPS and GEFS favor weak upper level troughing over
the Eastern U.S. during this time period. The primary feature we
will be watching is an area of low pressure that is forecast to
develop along the Carolina Coast by Monday. Per National Hurricane
Center guidance, there is a 50% chance that this low becomes
subtropical or tropical in nature. As this low develops it will be
trapped under upper level ridging over eastern Canada and largely
cut off from any steering flow. This situation should make the
system a slow mover and the ensemble guidance generally suggests
that it will amble around Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley between
Tuesday and Thursday. As we look towards Friday and next weekend,
intensification of the upper level ridge over Canada could drive the
aforementioned low pressure system southward.

The average track of the low in the ensemble guidance favors some
dry air entrainment on its western periphery as the week progresses.
The EPS and GEFS members seem to be latching on to this potential
and they have continue to trend towards a drier forecast for
northern and central Georgia. Twenty four hours ago about 70% of the
80 GEFS/EPS members brought at least some rainfall to our region
before Friday. Today that number has fallen to around 40%. This
gives us greater confidence in a mostly dry forecast between Tuesday
and Friday (especially for northern Georgia). Lingering moisture
could result in a few scattered showers or thunderstorms in central
Georgia, mainly on Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in a mostly dry
forecast decreases by next weekend. When the low could slide back
south and push some precipitation in form the north. The return of
partly cloudy skies and a northward drift of the low should help
high temperatures gradually rise through Thursday. This should get
temperatures back to the mid or upper 80s by mid week. Lower surface
dewpoints and more radiational cooling may allow overnight low
temperatures to trend the other way, and they may reach the lower
60s by midweek.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Cigs/vsbys are a mixed bag of mostly MVFR and patchy IFR this
afternoon. With the wedge still in place across much of north GA
elected to remain on the more pessimistic side. Rain overspreads
much of western GA with patchy dizzle/light showers elsewhere.
This is expected to continue through at least 00z. Cigs may
briefly rise closer to 025-040 btwn 21-00z but largely expected
cigs to remain MVFR. Cigs lower again tonight as early as 06z.
East winds remain elevated through the period 8-14kts with gusts
18-23kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  78  64  79 /  20  20  20  20
Atlanta         68  78  66  80 /  30  30  20  20
Blairsville     62  75  59  77 /  20  10  20  20
Cartersville    67  80  65  82 /  30  20  20  20
Columbus        69  78  67  80 /  70  60  40  30
Gainesville     66  77  65  79 /  20  20  20  20
Macon           68  79  66  80 /  40  40  30  20
Rome            67  82  65  84 /  40  20  20  10
Peachtree City  67  76  64  79 /  50  40  30  20
Vidalia         70  80  68  80 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for GAZ042-052-053-066>069-
078>080-089>093-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...07