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000
FXPQ50 PGUM 222059
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
659 AM ChST Tue Apr 23 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Altimetry shows seas holding in the 5 to 6 foot range with visible
satellite imagery showing a few clouds passing by.

&&

.Discussion...
Not much change was made to the forecast as things remain in good
shape. We`ll need to keep an eye on winds this morning due to fire
conditions, more on that below. The "Hedgehog" of moisture may miss
us just to the south with time heights also showing less rainfall
potential.

&&

.Marine...
Seas of 5 to 6 feet will decrease a foot or two over the next 48
hours, before increasing for the weekend. Moderate trades will
prevail. A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the north
facing and east facing reefs.

&&

.Fire weather...
Given the diminishing potential of a more appreciable rainfall, we
extended the Fire Weather Watch through 7 PM Wednesday. We dropped to
56 percent RH values yesterday with frequent gusts above 20 mph, with
a Red Flag Warning (RFW) issued. This was a great call and a repeat
performance (issuance of the RFW) possible today and tomorrow during
the late morning through sunset hours.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
An active pattern is expected to continue over the region through at
least the early part of the upcoming week. Satellite analysis
overnight shows deep convection southeast of Majuro near the
International Date, otherwise, trade-wind convergence has weaken
overnight with isolated deep convection seen between Kosrae and
Pohnpei. A trade-wind trough east of the Marshall is expected to
push westward across the latter part of the week. Models continue to
be in agreement that trade-wind convergence will strengthening over
Kosrae and Pohnpei with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
expected around Wednesday at both locations. Another weak trade-wind
trough will move over the Marshalls during the latter part of the
week with periods of showers and thunderstorms expect as it moves
east to west across the region. An analysis of ASCAT data this
morning shows mainly winds of 10 to 15 knot over all of the region.

Just east of the International Date Line at 6N175W, a band of strong
to fresh trades likely associated with a trade-wind surge was seen
on ASCAT data with a wide band seen at around 160W. The last few runs
of NOAA Wave III Model data continue to indicate surge of higher
combined seas later this week. A Small Craft Advisory may be need as
early as Wednesday at Majuro. If the higher swell is realized, a High
Surf Advisory along north and east facing reefs at Kosrae and north
facing reef at Pohnpei may been needed later this week at both
locations. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades are expected to
persist through at least Thursday, then strengthening to fresh to
strong around this weekend. For Majuro and Pohnpei, moderate to
fresh gusts are expected through the forecast period. Combined seas
of 5 to 7 feet are expected at Pohnpei and Kosrae and gradually
building with a trade-wind surge this weekend. Sea could build as
high as 9 feet this week with the surge.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A band of trade-wind convergence east of Yap and Palau this morning
is producing showers and thunderstorms east of Yap and east and south
of Palau. Another trough east of Chuuk is expected to push west ward
over the next couple of days. Models show this trough will likely
provide the best chance for wetting rains at all three locations
through at least Wednesday before a drier weather pattern sets up
over the region and persisting through the weekend.


Gentle to moderate trades and benign seas are expected to persist
through early this week at Yap and Palau. For Chuuk, moderate with
some fresh gusts and benign seas are expected at Chuuk through early
this weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM ChST Wednesday for GUZ001.

MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Marianas: Doll
Micronesia: Kelly