Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251948
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
348 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A large storm system will spread showers across the region
tonight into tomorrow. Additional showers and storms will occur
during the late afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses
the area. High pressure will then build into the area for mid to
late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Warm temperatures and low dew points have lead to low relative
humidity across the region which will persist into the evening.
This combined with wind has led to enhanced fire danger. And at
the request of Wayne National Forest, a red flag warning has
been issued for that area.

Showers will spread into the area after midnight as a strong low
level jet pushes into the region. It is not out of the question
that there could be a bit of thunder in southern counties.

Winds will decrease a bit late this afternoon into the early
evening, but they will then increase again later in the evening
and through the overnight. Most likely strongest wind gusts will
occur just as showers move into the area and moisten the rather
dry low levels. Thereafter, it looks like mixing will be muted
by a slightly stable near surface layer. So while it will be
gusty, do not expect gusts to reach full potential.

Temperatures will fall into the mid 40s to around 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Higher resolution guidance suggests that initial band of showers
will lose some organization and focus towards daybreak but then
redevelop across eastern counties mid morning as a subtle short
wave and a slight resurgence of the low level jet occurs. These
showers will translate east out of the forecast area during the
afternoon.

On the backside of this area of showers there will be some
decrease in clouds. This will allow western counties to warm and
to mix well. This will result in stronger wind gusts in that
area. Weak instability will develop in the warm sector with
latest indications that CAPE will be less than 500 J/kg within
the forecast area. A broken line of showers and storms is
forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves into the area
during the latter part of the afternoon into the evening. With
strong wind fields, it is possible that a few storms could
become strong or even marginally severe. As the weak
instability wanes through the evening, the showers and any
remaining storms will decrease while the front passes across the
rest of the forecast area. Winds will diminish overnight as the
pressure gradient relaxes after frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Wednesday morning, broad troughing will be in place across a
large portion of the CONUS, with the ILN CWA being in a regime of
generally southwesterly upper flow. At the surface, a cold front
will have cleared through the region, as a surface low moves quickly
north into Ontario. Dry weather is expected for the ILN CWA behind
the front, with westerly flow bringing in drier air and an eventual
clearing skies.

Max temps on Wednesday will have a bit of a temperature gradient,
with lower 60s in southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, and upper
40s in west-central Ohio and east-central Indiana. Temperatures in
the 50s will occur again on Thursday, as a large surface high off to
the west begins to move into the area. The high will shift into the
southeastern states on Saturday, but warmer conditions are expected
for the Ohio Valley on Friday, with temperatures getting into the
60s.

A broad-scale pattern change will occur on Friday into Saturday,
with troughing moving off the east coast, and broader ridging
setting up across the southern states. The Ohio Valley will be on
the northern periphery of this ridging, in a more progressive and
potentially active pattern. This will mean that there will be
occasional chances for rain (and maybe convection) beginning on
Friday night, and continuing into early next week. The temperature
forecast is somewhat uncertain through the extended period, since
the presence of a warm front and precipitation could lead to big
differences across short distances. However, the overall expectation
is that temperatures will likely be a little above normal this
weekend. Some strong storms could be possible depending on
instability and timing, but confidence in when exactly this could
occur is low.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through at least the first half of
the period. South to southeast winds will gust around 20 kt
early with the gusts diminishing towards 00Z. But that will just
be a respite. Winds will increase after 03Z, both in sustained
speeds as well as becoming gusty. In addition, there will be low
level wind shear with very strong winds just off the surface.
Showers will spread across the region overnight. Conditions will
likely remain VFR at precipitation onset, but it is possible
that ceilings or visibilities may eventually drop to MVFR. But
confidence in the occurrence of lower conditions is only medium
at best. Strong sustained winds with higher gusts will continue
through the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts up to 30 kt will continue through Tuesday
afternoon. MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ074-088.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...


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