Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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755 FXUS64 KLZK 120135 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 825 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a cut off low over the four corners region with a broad upper level ridge over the southern plains. Visible satellite imagery showed some mid- level cumulus clouds over Arkansas which will probably dissipate after sunset. However off to the west in the ridge axis there are quite a few thick cirrus clouds which will move east over Arkansas at some point tonight. This is usually a fairly innocuous phenomena not really worth mentioning in a forecast discussion, however with another G4 or G5 geomagnetic storm forecast for tonight per the Space Weather Prediction Center, there is bound to be a greater than average interest in any cloud cover over Arkansas tonight for those hoping to catch a glimpse or long exposure photograph of the northern lights again. If you missed last night`s display, you will have an opportunity tonight, however checking things out earlier than later is suggested as these high clouds will eventually move over the state by Sunday morning. I`m not a space weather expert, so I can`t guarantee tonight will be as amazing as last night, but if you missed last night, it`s probably worth a look-see just in case! Back to more germane weather conditions, Sunday is expected to remain dry as broad upper level ridging remains over the state. However, low-level winds are expected to turn around out of the southeast bringing low-level moisture back up across the state in earnest. The cut off/closed low pushing the ridge axis east over Arkansas will continue east on Sunday, spreading large scale forcing for ascent over the state from west to east from Sunday afternoon through evening. Where large scale forcing for ascent from the upper low meets the best low-level moisture advection, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over southern Arkansas Sunday evening. Rain showers and thunderstorms will likely spread north throughout the overnight hours, but may initially struggle to maintain the same coverage, somewhat fighting drier air to the north until a combination of rain and moisture advection saturate things up. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday night into Monday morning, but are expected to somewhat diminish in coverage at least after sunrise Monday morning. On Monday, a warm front will move north towards Arkansas from east Texas and Louisiana. How far that warm front moves north will largely determine the severe weather chances across the state Monday afternoon and evening. In simple terms, the more coverage of showers and thunderstorms across Arkansas Monday morning, the more rain cooled air will push against the warm front moving north Monday afternoon. The NAM gives us a break in storms Monday morning allowing the warm front to move as far north as central Arkansas, setting the stage for a fair bit of severe thunderstorms across the southern half of the state late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. The GFS and ECMWF models keep the warm front farther south, keeping the severe weather threat more in place over southwest and far southern Arkansas with more widespread elevated showers and thunderstorms across the northern two thirds of the state. It`s too early right now to know which solution is more likely to verify, however prior experience alone, which granted is not a model forecast, suggests that warm fronts are not all that efficient at moving north in the absence of very strong southerly winds driving the front north. Southerly winds will be in place Monday, but H925 and H850 winds are only expected to be on the order of 25 to 30 kts, so if I had to hedge, I`d say the GFS and ECMWF solutions of keeping the severe weather threat farther south are more likely to verify. Definitely something important to keep any eye on over the next 24-36 hours. Cavanaugh && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 To begin the period, much of the state will be in a period of unsettled weather as a closed low is expected to be centered just north of the state. This will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night (continuing from the short term period) through Tuesday. A brief break in the rain is expected Wednesday before additional showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday and Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the state from the west. As of right now, severe weather chances appear low at this time but some strong storms cannot be ruled out. Changes to the forecast are possible so continue to check back for additional updates. What is known at this time is...an unsettled weather pattern is likely across the state through much of next week, bringing the chance for multiple rounds of showers and storms. Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to mid 80s through the period with overnight lows dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions will continue, with mainly high clouds overnight, and more mid clouds on Sunday. Clouds will gradually thicken with time, and there is an outside chance of spotty MVFR conditions due to low clouds in southern Arkansas Sunday afternoon. The wind will be light/variable overnight, and south/southeast at 6 to 12 knots on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 59 83 62 74 / 0 10 70 90 Camden AR 61 78 61 81 / 10 40 80 60 Harrison AR 56 79 59 74 / 0 20 70 90 Hot Springs AR 62 80 61 79 / 10 20 90 70 Little Rock AR 64 83 64 80 / 10 10 80 70 Monticello AR 64 81 64 81 / 10 30 90 70 Mount Ida AR 60 79 61 79 / 10 30 80 70 Mountain Home AR 55 81 60 73 / 0 20 60 90 Newport AR 60 83 63 75 / 0 10 60 80 Pine Bluff AR 63 81 63 80 / 10 20 90 70 Russellville AR 61 82 62 77 / 0 10 70 80 Searcy AR 60 82 62 76 / 0 10 80 80 Stuttgart AR 63 81 64 78 / 10 10 80 80 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cavanaugh LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...46