478
FXUS64 KMEG 071126
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
626 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

An increasingly active weather pattern is expected for the Mid-
South. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
will continue to increase in coverage and intensity on Wednesday.
While strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today and
Wednesday, there is a greater risk for severe weather development
on Wednesday night. Lingering showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Thursday with a dry and cooler weekend expected for
the Mid-South.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this
morning with temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Currently, a large area of thunderstorms extend from northeast
Missouri southward into northwest Arkansas.

This area of thunderstorms will continue to move east this morning
and eventually move into mainly the northern half of the region.
While this activity is expected to weaken some as it reaches the
Mid-South, there could be some strong thunderstorms over extreme
northern sections of the region. Temperatures will remain a few
degrees above normal today with highs in the mid 80s. As a weak
cold front moves into the region tonight, another round of
thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front. A few
strong thunderstorms are possible with the chance of severe
weather remaining low. Temperatures will remain quite warm tonight
with lows Wednesday morning in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm
front. Some scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the
day. A stronger cold front will move into western Arkansas in the
afternoon with thunderstorms increasing in coverage over the
northern half of the region. Another warm day is expected on
Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. As this cold front
moves into the region by late Wednesday evening, thunderstorms
will increase in coverage and intensity across the entire Mid-
South. Wednesday night appears to be the most likely time for
severe weather with damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail
possible. As this cold front moves through the region on
Thursday, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead
of the front. The cold front should be southeast of the region by
Thursday night with the threat of thunderstorms gradually ending.

High pressure builds into the region on Friday bringing dry
weather and below normal temperatures. A secondary cold front will
move through the region over the weekend with a few thunderstorms
possible over portions of northwest Tennessee for Saturday
afternoon. Dry and cooler weather returns for Saturday night
through Monday as high pressure moves back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Most of the SHRA/TSRA activity should mainly impact JBR this
morning. Went with VCSH elsewhere for now though would not be
surprised to have a few lightning strikes around this morning.
Gusty south winds will prevail today. Low clouds will gradually
lift to VFR early this afternoon. Additional SHRAs/TSRAs are
possible tonight with low clouds redeveloping and winds
diminishing.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...SJM