616
FXZS60 NSTU 030019
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
119 PM SST Thu May 2 2024

.Short term...

Overall, rainfall will be above average through the weekend. A
Flood Watch is in effect for all islands of American Samoa through
Friday.

A strong trough remains in the vicinity of American Samoa.
Satellite imagery this morning and early this afternoon shows an
impressive amount of rain and thunderstorms just to the
east/northeast of the territory. This convection is expected to
move closer to the region later this afternoon and through the
overnight hours. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds may occur in areas
of thunderstorms. Due to the possibility of heavy rainfall and the
large area of rain moving towards the territory, a flood watch is
in effect for all islands of American Samoa through Friday. Winds
during this time will shift from east to northeast and will
decrease in strength in areas away from localized thunderstorms.

For Friday, there are signs that thunderstorms may move away from
the islands. The rainfall forecast of widespread showers decrease
to numerous showers (70% chance), but rain is still likely. Winds
decrease to around 10 mph.

This weekend, however, a ridge to the southeast will help steer
another trough to bring more moisture over the territory.
Precipitable water exceeds 2.5 inches with high instability values
as the trough moves in. This could lead to the potential for more
flooding for all islands, pending on the exact location of the
trough. We will continue to monitor this timeframe as the current
Flood Watch may be extended through the weekend if the outlook
continues to show this advise weather pattern. Winds will decrease
to a light northerly breeze, but gusts may occur in areas of
thunderstorms.

.Long term...

Finally by the beginning of next week, the aforemetioned troughs
will move to the south. Scattered to numerous showers are forecast
as the air is still moist and could trigger some passing showers
through the middle of the week. A light northerly wind is expected
to become a light easterly wind by the middle of the week.

&&

.Marine...

Active showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain along the
coastal waters region overnight. An easterly fresh breeze will
become more of a moderate northeasterly breeze throughout the
evening and overnight, but strong wind gusts may occur near
localized thunderstorms. Seas are expected to remain elevated,
between 8 to 10 feet through Friday morning. Winds will decrease
to a gentle to moderate northerly breeze by Friday afternoon and
the weekend, but seas are only expected to ease to around 6 to 8
feet through Saturday night. By Sunday, the trough will begin to
move southeast of the territorial waters. However, a strong swell
from the south is expected to move over the region for early next
week to keep sea heights at Small Craft Advisory levels and the
potential for a surf to reach High Surf Advisory status.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

A Flood Watch is in effect.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

&&

$$

LaPlante