Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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805 FXUS61 KRLX 091035 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 635 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Additional showers and storms today, some becoming strong to severe. A cold front will promote cooler conditions Friday and the weekend. Warmer with diurnal storms expected next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 635 AM Thursday... Opted to drop the Flood Watch this morning for the southern coalfields as rainfall rates within encroaching stratiform pose no concern to flash flooding. Also tweaked POPs to reflect radar trends, with the aforementioned light rain stretching into our southern zones, and last night`s moisture-laden boundary now lifting northward. Rest of the forecast remains on track. As of 235 AM Thursday... A stationary boundary draped through parts of southeast Ohio into north-central West Virginia yields the only sign of lightning in our forecast area at the time of writing. This low-topped convection poses a bit of a hydro concern early this morning as it festers within light flow between 5,000-15,000ft AGL, resulting in relatively slow storm motion to the north. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr within this band amidst tarnished flash flood guidance due to previous activity may cause localized flooding concerns during the predawn hours. Otherwise, the bulk of stronger convection resides well south of the forecast area early this morning, with even stratiform rain now sailing away from our extreme southern zones. Flood Watch for southwest Virginia and McDowell County in West Virginia currently runs until later this morning, but if radar trends hold, very little additional rainfall will sweep through and may pose an election to end the Watch early. Surface low pressure approaching from the west today will promote another dose of showers and storms as it tracks along the stationary boundary. A cold front will gradually clear out the area late tonight, but until then hi-res guidance suggests isolated activity sprouting during the late afternoon/early evening followed by a segmented line of convection drifting southward for the first part of the overnight hours. A few storms could reach strong to severe thresholds, imposing the threat for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a tornado or two. Forecast rainfall amounts are anticipated to be less impactful compared to previous days, but a few isolated spots for flooding concerns could sprout throughout the period given how saturated the ground remains in response to unsettled weather this week. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thursday... Most of Friday should be unsettled with very little chances of diurnal thunderstorm potential although we cannot rule them out. An upper level trough will be the culprit for Friday. Going into Saturday there will be a break during the morning as a surface ridge builds in after the aforementioned trough moves east. But by the afternoon, chances of shower and storm potential will rise across the entire area as a surface low with upper level support moves into the region. This feature will be forecast to graze the northern periphery of our CWA. Relatively quiet weather anticipated for Sunday as surface high pressure and upper level ridging builds in and will only allow for the northeast mountains to endure chances for shower and storm activity mainly for the afternoon and evening. The rest of Sunday will be dry area-wide and going into the next period. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM Thursday... For Monday, expect dry conditions into the afternoon although the rest of the day will have shower chances with little in the way of any probability for thunderstorms. Another surface low with upper level support is forecast to approach the area late Monday keeping chances for shower activity through the rest of this period along with daily diurnal chances for thunderstorm activity. This period will also have a warming trend to get the area back up to around seasonable temperatures, maybe even slightly above, starting Monday and continuing through midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 635 AM Thursday... Some MVFR ceilings have sprouted across the area this morning and is progged to encompass more of the forecast area in the next several hours. Clouds attempt to lift back into VFR thresholds this afternoon across the south, but will quickly fill back in overnight. This will be in response to a cold front making eastward progress through the area, slated to complete its passage on Friday. Pockets of IFR may transpire across our northern terminals initially tonight, then becoming more widespread by the conclusion of the valid TAF period. Another round of showers and afternoon thunderstorms will be possible today ahead of FROPA. Some storms may be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail, heavy downpours, and brief vsby/cig restrictions. Winds will begin out of the southwest today, then gradually veering out of the northwest late tonight into Friday in response to the cold frontal passage. Breezier wind gusts may be observed along the higher terrain, and possibly BKW & EKN, overnight into Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/09/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H M M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H M M H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H M M H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... Lingering IFR conditions behind the cold front remain possible along the mountains on Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JZ/MEK NEAR TERM...MEK SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...MEK