571
FXUS62 KTAE 140522
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The MCS that has been moving across the region today has push rain-
cooled air across out Alabama, Georgia, and Panhandle counties,
including the Gulf waters south of the Panhandle coast. The
southeast Big Bend and Lower Suwannee Valley still has convectively
untainted air, with Cross City observing a sultry T/Td of 84/70 at 3
pm ET.

Now that we know the exiting MCS pushed an outflow boundary so far
south, it will shade the track of the next MCS --- currently over
southeast Texas --- further south as well. It will quickly race east
this evening and overnight in the base of the shortwave trough
spinning over the Ozarks, tracking east along the northern Gulf
Coast. The bulk of the severe thunderstorm and heavy rain threat
early Friday morning will be over our Florida counties and over the
Gulf waters. The inland extent will depend on how far north the
leftover boundary can rebound northward.

For the Flood Watch, have trimmed it back from our Alabama counties
and most southwest Georgia counties, while expanding it through
Madison and Lafayette Counties to the Suwannee. In the watch area,
an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain is forecast, with spotty amounts
of up to 8 inches possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Today`s front attendant to its Parent Low is slated to gradually
make its eastward exit from the region during the short-term period.
As this boundary does so, it should continue to provide a focus for
showers/thunderstorms oriented in SW-NE fashion from Apalachee Bay
into the Suwannee Valley & parts of South-Central GA late Tuesday
through early Wednesday. Heavy rain appears to be the biggest
concern with this activity at the aforementioned locations where
training convection is possible. As such, a Marginal Risk (level
1 of 4) is in place by the WPC in their Day 3 Outlook - valid 12Z
Wednesday to 12Z Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms
cannot be ruled out, either.

Improving weather is expected from NW to SE on Wednesday, which will
pave the way for temporarily quiet conditions by Thursday. Forecast
high temperatures are mostly in the 80s (isolated 90 degrees) while
lows "cool" from upper 60s/near 70 Wednesday AM to mid/upper 60s
Thursday AM. The latter is attributed to pre to post-frontal airmass
transition.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A weak upper ridge briefly translates east across the region on
Thursday, so expect a convective lull until Friday when yet another
storm system moves in from the west. The environment looks favorable
for scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which could be strong
to severe with the capability of producing heavy rainfall. Unsettled
weather persists into next weekend as troughing overspreads the
Eastern US. However, an upstream ridge building eastward likely
ushers improving conditions near the end of the long-term period.

High temperatures in the 80s with lows in the 60s will be common.
The warmest readings are expected Thursday afternoon when modeled
upper heights peak at around 584-586 dm. Therefore, look for
widespread upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices a few degrees
warmer during that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

The forecast mostly remains on track as MVFR to IFR cigs have held
while an MCS approaches from the west. This system is expected to
enter the region shortly and then race through during the early
morning hours. Severe weather will possible with this, especially
for KECP and KTLH. Behind the MCS, gusty southwest winds and
improving cigs are forecast. There could be some residual showers
and thunderstorms that try to pop up behind it, but confidence is
too low to add anything like that this far out. Instead, hinted at
the lowering of cigs sometime after 0Z to 03Z Wed as confidence is
slightly higher in that forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) reported a south wind around 15 kts with
3-ft seas and a dominant period of 4 sec. Clusters of thunderstorms
continue to move through the waters this afternoon. Additionally,
coastal observations in the western FL Panhandle have been
frequently gusting 25 to 30 kts in response to a wake low from
earlier maritime convection.

From CWF Synopsis...Multiple rounds of thunderstorm clusters will
traverse the waters through Tuesday, bringing strong to severe wind
gusts, possible waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Advisory to
near advisory conditions are still expected early Tuesday into at
least Wednesday morning. Frontal passage occurs Wednesday afternoon
with improving weather from west to east. Cautionary winds and seas
are likely until Wednesday evening. A lull in maritime convection is
on tap for Thursday, followed by renewed chances for thunderstorms
heading into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

A couple of additional rounds of thunderstorms will affect the
districts through Tuesday, bringing widespread wetting rains, with
some flooding possible under downpours. Some thunderstorms could be
severe. Drying westerly flow will kick in on Wednesday, when deep
mixing heights and moderate transport winds will support high
afternoon dispersion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

The Flood Watch (in effect until Tuesday evening) was updated this
afternoon to remove SE AL and most of SW GA with an eastward
expansion to include our remaining FL counties, minus Dixie.
Potential for additional waves of heavy rain capable of flash
flooding still exist as a lingering frontal boundary slowly
translates eastward. Updated forecast amounts through Wednesday are
widespread 2-4 inches, isolated 6-8 inches. Highest values are
along/south of the I-10 corridor and are well aligned with the WPC
Day 2 Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).

Dry weather is expected on Thursday before more rain arrives Friday-
Saturday from the next storm system. Another 1 to 2 inches are
forecast. The longer-term concerns are riverine flooding, depending
on where the heaviest rain ultimately falls. Future rises in the
Ochlockonee & Apalachicola basins appear reasonable.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   82  70  89  67 /  70  50  10   0
Panama City   81  72  85  70 /  80  20  10   0
Dothan        82  68  85  64 /  80  10   0   0
Albany        80  68  84  64 /  80  30  10   0
Valdosta      82  70  87  66 /  60  50  20   0
Cross City    85  70  86  67 /  60  80  60   0
Apalachicola  81  74  83  72 /  70  50  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ007>019-026>029-108-112-
     114-115-118-127-128.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ155-156.

AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Wednesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3