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000
FXUS65 KVEF 210753
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1253 AM PDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring very warm temperatures through
Monday. Low pressure approaching Southern California will bring
breezy afternoon southwest winds Monday and Tuesday, followed by a
cooling trend and chances for showers late in the week into next
weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night. Midnight satellite loop showed
clear skies areawide. Surface obs showed light winds and
temperatures similar to 24 hours ago. Overall, forecast expectations
have not changed. Temperatures should peak today and Monday under
high pressure. Southwest winds will increase Monday and Tuesday, and
temperatures will start to come down Tuesday as the ridge moves off
to the east and Pacific low pressure approaches the coast. Forecast
wind gusts for Tuesday have increased since yesterday, and Wind
Advisories may be needed if this trend continues, with northwest San
Bernardino County the most likely target. Yesterday morning, there
was discussion about chances for thunderstorms over the Sierra
crest. These underachieved yesterday, and similar conditions are
expected this afternoon, so will run with the NBM rather than
blending in CAM PoPs, which were too hot yesterday.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

The extended models are coming into better agreement with the closed
eastern Pacific low that will begin to approach the west coast mid-
week. The ridge which brought some of the warmest temperatures this
weekend will begin to shift east with lowering heights and
increasing southwest flow. This will lead to a breezy to locally
windy afternoon Wednesday along with a slight temperature drop. The
probabilities of 90 degrees in Las Vegas go from over 90% on Tuesday
to less than 50% on Wednesday. More significant cooling is expected
to take place toward the end of the week as the upper low moves over
the Desert Southwest with Las Vegas potentially seeing highs back
into the 70s.

There isn`t a lot of moisture associated with the low, but there are
indications that deeper moisture over the central Pacific will get
wrapped into the low increasing the PWs to around 150-180% of
normal. This could bring increasing shower chances to portions of
the CWA over the weekend, especially across the Sierra and northern
portions of the CWA. Even looking beyond the extended period, it
looks like we will remain in a weak trough pattern with no
significant warmup into early May.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and diurnal winds through the TAF
period. Chance of 10+ knot sustained winds through 02z this evening
is 10%. Afterwards, chances increase to about 50% as the overnight
southwest winds develop. Few mid-level and high clouds this
afternoon, with bases remaining above 10kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally light and diurnal winds across the area
today, with speeds largely less than 10 knots. Only exceptions to
this are KBIH (where a period of westerly breezes are forecast this
evening) and KDAG (where west winds this evening are expected to be
in the 10-15 knot range). VFR conditions persist with just a few mid-
level and high clouds.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM...Gorelow
AVIATION...Woods

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