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000
FXUS61 KALY 281038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
638 AM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds along with cooler
and less humid conditions. A few isolated showers will develop
during the afternoon hours, mainly across the higher terrain.
The next system will arrive Thursday into Friday with another
round of showers and thunderstorms. Dry and seasonably cool
weather will start the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 630 AM EDT, forecast remains on track as the
region remains under a mostly cloudy sky but is void of showers.
Patchy fog formed in a few isolated areas early this morning,
but this should erode within the next hour or so. Temperatures
early this morning are starting out in the mid-50s to mid-60s.
Expect a mix of sun and clouds today with a few isolated showers
possible, mainly across higher elevations.

Previous Discussion:
A cold front continues to progress south of the region today
while high pressure builds to the north. A cold pocket of air
aloft and an upper-level trough pushing across the region will
lead to a mix of sun and clouds with a few isolated showers.
Little instability will be present (500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and a
capping inversion in the mid- levels should keep convection
rather shallow and mostly thunder- less. Guidance supports
higher elevation areas (outside of the Hudson Valley) with the
best chance at these showers, so slight chance pops (or isolated
coverage) was placed to these areas. Cooler and less humid than
yesterday with highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Dewpoints
will drop into the 50s in most areas.

The upper-level trough departs to the east tonight with surface
winds shifting to the south as the front begins to lift back
northward. Increased low-level moisture is expected so a brief
shower or two will be possible in some areas, especially toward
daybreak. It will remain partly cloudy with low temperatures in the
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Another upper-level disturbance and low pressure system will push
across the region Thursday and Thursday night. Latest guidance
suggests the surface warm front will struggle to lift northward
during the day and may only reach as far north as the Capital
District. The day will feature more clouds than sun and, as a
result, temperatures will only climb into the upper 60s to mid-
70s. Dewpoints will only reach the upper 50s to mid-60s.
Instability will not be particularly high and be mostly
elevated. The upper- level shortwave will push across the region
Thursday afternoon, but the main surface low and cold front
will lag behind, not moving through until later Thursday
night/early Friday morning. Anywhere south of the warm front
later Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, some thunderstorms
could become surface-based and become strong to possibly
severe. The SPC Day 2 Outlook places areas from Albany and
points south in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Otherwise,
expect a general scattered nature of showers and thunderstorms
with the greatest coverage Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening.

As the cold front pushes across the region on Friday, showers will
end and a seasonably cool and less humid air mass will build across
the region. It will become gusty Friday afternoon as well, adding a
little `chill` in the air in some areas, especially during the
afternoon and early evening. High temperatures will only reach the
upper 50s across parts of the Adirondacks to the upper 70s in the
mid-Hudson Valley.

Wind will ease Friday night as high pressure builds in from the
west. A mainly clear sky should allow for temperatures to drop to
their lowest values in over a month, reaching the 40s to lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The entire long term period will feature a dominant upper level
trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast, resulting in below normal
temperatures (850 mb temperature anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV
Saturday through Tuesday) and periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms.

On Saturday, a neutral northwest flow aloft and a weak surface
anticyclone in place should result in a dry day with cool
temperatures. Dry conditions expected to persist through Saturday
night, with the flow aloft becoming southwesterly ahead of a
positively tilted upper level trough approaching from the Great
Lakes.

This upper trough will be the main feature of concern for Sunday as
it tracks into the lower Great Lakes. Ahead of the trough, a surface
cyclone will develop downstream over western/northern NY. Model
guidance still differs on the intensity of this system, although
have come into better agreement regarding the track/position. The
GFS continues to maintain a more vigorous system, while the ECMWF is
weaker. This will have implications for potential strong
thunderstorms developing ahead of the system`s cold front Sunday
afternoon. Anomalously strong SW flow will result in deep layer
shear of 40-50 kt with decent large scale forcing downstream of the
trough axis. Main question will be magnitude of instability, with a
low-CAPE/high-shear environment possible. A weaker system would
result in less potential for stronger convection. Stay tuned.

The cold front and upper level trough axis will move eastward across
the region Sunday night with additional showers. Monday should be
mainly dry with a developing northwest flow and below normal
temperatures persisting. A few showers cannot be ruled out as a
broad upper level trough remains in place. A weak anticyclone is
expected to build in on Tuesday, providing dry conditions with
slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread stratus clouds with VFR or MVFR cigs to start the day.
Ceiling heights will gradually rise this morning, with improvement
to VFR by mid to late morning at all TAF sites. Mainly BKN clouds
will generally linger into the afternoon under the influence of an
upper level trough. Cigs should be around 4-5 kft, then scour out by
late this afternoon as drier air moves in.

VFR conditions expected to prevail tonight, with increasing high and
mid level clouds. Some fog development will be possible at KGFL
tonight. This will depend on timing of clouds moving in. Will not
mention in TAF at this time due to low confidence.

Winds will be northerly around 5 kt or less through today.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Isolated SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly dry and cooler weather is expected today with only
isolated showers, mainly across the higher terrain. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase during the day Thursday and
linger into early Friday before ending. Dry weather then
continues into Saturday.

RH values will lower to 50 to 60 percent this afternoon, then
rebound to 90 to 100 percent tonight. RH values remain elevated
tomorrow at 60 to 75 percent. Wind will generally remain at 10
mph or less through tomorrow, out of the north today and south
tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Mainly dry weather is expected today with increasing shower and
thunderstorm coverage during the day Thursday before ending
Friday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night and could lead to isolated
flash flooding. Many area rivers are forecasting a rise in water
levels Thursday night into Friday morning as a result of the
rain, but should all remain below action stage.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun