Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 301136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

A cold front crossing the region will bring showers and a few
rumbles of thunder to the North Country this morning. As this
front moves out of the area, cool temperatures and breezy winds
will follow in its wake. High temperatures today and Saturday
will remain below normal in the 60s to low 70s. Drier weather is
expected on Saturday before precipitation chances increase once
again on Sunday.


As of 736 AM EDT Friday...No significant changes to the
forecast this hour. Widespread rain showers continue to move
across northern NY and VT as surface front crosses the area.
Expect these showers to persist through the morning hours before
drier air arrives this afternoon. A few pockets of fog remain
this morning but as winds begin to pick up out of the NW this
should all scour out. Expect lingering clouds throughout much of
the morning with decreasingly cloudy skies this afternoon as
low level moisture slowly erodes. All in all, going forecast
remains in good shape.

Previous Discussion...Water vapor imagery shows pronounced
upper level shortwave moving into the region. This feature along
with a surface front is responsible for the area of showers
with embedded thunderstorms currently moving across
north/central New York and into Vermont. This area of
precipitation will move through the next couple hours before
exiting east into NH by mid-morning. Generally light
precipitation is expected with rainfall amounts ~0.25", however
locally higher amounts up to 0.75" are possible within embedded
convective elements.

Behind this front, winds have already turned out of the NW across
the St Lawrence Valley. This will usher in a much cooler
airmass behind it. This front feels very fall-like so have held
onto clouds a little bit longer than guidance suggests given
daytime driven instability as cold pool moves in aloft. This
will help limit amount of warming today with high temperatures
only reaching the low to mid 60s. Despite sounding profiles
showing small area of daytime instability due to upper level
trough overhead, not expecting much lingering precipitation
since depth of moisture really shrinks to less than 5000ft after
18z. Winds will pick up in the afternoon hours as mixing
potential increases. Winds this morning will be generally less
than 10 mph out of the NW increasing to 10 to 15 mph with gusts
in the 20 mph range this afternoon.

Clouds should begin to dissipate by late evening with a fairly
chilly night on tap. Overnight lows will be largely in the low to
mid 40s, with low 50s for the Champlain Valley, especially within
the vicinity of Lake Champlain. Below normal temperatures will
remain on Saturday with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for
the mountains (summits will be in the low to mid 50s) and low to mid
70s for the broader valleys. Despite this cooler temperatures, sunny
skies are expected under light NW winds less than 10 mph.


As of 521 AM EDT Friday...Flow aloft begins to back to the west and
southwest Saturday night into Sunday as a shortwave trough moves
down from Canada. Dynamic support will be increasing through the
period as a result. This will lead to increasing chances for rain
showers Saturday night with precipitation becoming widespread across
the area on Sunday. All data during this period has this same idea
and WSUP NBM Viewer probabilities of rainfall amounts greater than a
tenth, quarter, and half inch all higher than this time last night.
So have upped precipitation chances on Sunday into the categorical
range for most of the area. Since system is coming down from Canada
and precipitable water values are essentially normal values not
expecting heavy rain at this time. Rainfall amounts at this time
look to be in the third to three quarters inch range. With all the
clouds and precipitation on Sunday high temperatures will continue
to be below normal with readings in the mid 60s to lower 70s.


As of 521 AM EDT Friday...Shortwave trough moves across the area
Sunday night and then exits to the east on Monday. The precipitation
will be slow to clear as a result and below normal temperatures are
expected once again with highs on Monday in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Drier weather is expected on Tuesday as weak high pressure
builds into the region. A front will try to move into the region on
Wednesday thus looking at a chance for some showers. Flow aloft
becomes more southwest on Thursday and Friday and cannot rule out
the possibility of some showers, but areal coverage looks to be
limited. Will keep precipitation chance mainly in the slight chance
category for now. There will be a gradual warming trend beginning on
Tuesday and continuing throughout the week with highs returning to
seasonal normals by Friday.


Through 12Z Saturday...Widespread IFR/MVFR across the airspace
this morning. Scattered showers have developed over northern New
York and Vermont and will continue throughout the morning hours
as a cold front crosses the region. Lingering low level moisture
will remain with IFR/MVFR ceilings through the morning hours.
Towards 18z, drier air will begin working into the airspace
which should lift any IFR/MVFR to VFR. VFR conditions should
then remain through the rest of the TAF period. Light and
variable winds across VT will begin to increase out of the NW
this morning behind departing surface front. Today, winds will
be around 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. After 00z, wind
gusts should taper off with light NW winds overnight.


Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.




SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
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