Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 270815
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
315 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

High pressure will remain anchored to the north of the area through
the short term forecast period, keeping us mostly dry with warm
temperatures and weak onshore flow. Heat index values will once
again reach 105 to 109 today and Wednesday with a few locations
briefly reaching Heat Advisory criteria. Moisture will increase
through the day today as a mid level trough shifts west from the
Gulf of Mexico into Deep South/South Texas. This could produce a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the
coast and the Victoria Crossroads but with low confidence in other
supporting factors, have maintained silent PoPs through tonight.
Moisture will continue to increase tonight and Wednesday as the
trough continues to drift west along the southern periphery of the
ridge, with PWATs increasing to around 2.0 inches. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday for the Coastal
Plains, Coastal Bend, and the Victoria Crossroads, with most
showers being initiated along the the sea breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

There`s little change to the overall pattern with an upper low over
mainland Mexico and a high over the high plains with ridging over
the Western/Central CONUS and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard.

Generally dry conditions will prevail with the mid to upper levels
starved of moisture. The slight chance for precipitation and a few
isolated storms will come from lower level moisture combined with
forcing from a couple of mid level disturbances in the form of a
shortwave trough and an inverted trough.

The first feature will approach the S. TX Coast Thursday moving west
and should exit our CWA by Friday night. Have slight PoP`s each day
peaking on Friday as the axis moves across S. TX and extended into
Saturday to account for some energy on the backside of the feature.

This will be immediately followed by an inverted trough but forcing
is minimal so have kept minimal PoP`s each day heading into next
week. Uncertainty increases towards the end of the period so will
continue to monitor and adjust forecast as needed but for now have
gone with the NBM.

The main concern will be the heat. Mostly sunny conditions will
allow for ample surface heating combined with low level moisture
will lead to heat indices each day of 105-110. Please use caution,
remember to hydrate and limit outdoor activities wherever possible.

&&

.MARINE...

Generally dry conditions will continue through the week, with
isolated showers and thunderstorms becoming possible each afternoon
beginning Wednesday. Weak onshore flow will increase to weak to
moderate by the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  77  93  76  92  /  10  10  20   0  10
Victoria          95  76  94  74  94  /  10  10  30   0  20
Laredo           102  77 101  76 100  /   0   0  10  10  10
Alice             97  75  96  73  96  /  10  10  20   0  10
Rockport          93  80  93  79  92  /  10  10  20   0  10
Cotulla          101  75  99  76 100  /   0   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        96  75  95  74  94  /  10  10  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       92  80  92  80  90  /  10  10  20   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

LS/77...SHORT TERM
BF/80...LONG TERM


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