Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 270924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
224 AM MST Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday with near average
temperatures. Monsoonal moisture increases once again by
Wednesday resulting in widespread storm coverage across northern
Arizona into the weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue this
afternoon across higher terrain. Due to the saturated nature of
the soils, flash flooding will continue to be a concern for areas
where these storms set up. Monsoon moisture looks to increase
Wednesday with scattered storms initiating over higher terrain
before moving into lower elevations. Thursday through the weekend
storms look to become more widespread as moisture continues to
increase. Hazards associated with this include flash flooding,
similar to what was seen last week, and the potential for some
severe storms. To start the work week, current thinking is a
return to the more typical monsoonal pattern, with storms once
again firing over the higher elevations before moving into lowland


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Mainly VFR conditions expected
through the TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms possible after 18Z
Tue, mainly in the high terrain. Brief periods of MVFR conditions
will be possible along with gusty and erratic winds in and around
thunderstorms. Winds will otherwise be light. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday. Moisture increases
Wednesday with the return of widespread thunderstorms. Light winds
are expected outside of any gusty and erratic outflows from storms.

Thursday through Saturday...Expect continued widespread afternoon
thunderstorm chances.






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