Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
330 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Today-tonight...a 596dam upper level ridge axis remains over
northwest Kansas into northeast Oklahoma this morning with a frontal
boundary near Trenton and McCook southeast into Norton. Along the
front stratus and fog were observed. For today no change in the
upper level pattern is expected with lots of sunshine and high
temperatures in the 95 to 102 degree range. South winds gusting
25 to 30 mph are expected along and west of the CO/KS border late
this morning through the afternoon. A cold front remains on track
to move through the area tonight with north winds gusting to 20
mph or so. There looks to be enough moisture in the 850-500mb
layer to support a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the far western and northwestern portions of the area.
Although not in the forecast at this time the NAM and to a lesser
extent the HRRR bring stratus south through the area behind the
front and the NAM is suggesting perhaps some drizzle mainly along
and north of the interstate. Low temperatures are expected to
range from the lower 60s in far eastern Colorado to the low 70s
near Hill City.

Saturday-Saturday concern for Saturday is will the NAM
be correct in keeping stratus over much of the area through the
morning which when combined with increasing moisture/clouds in the
850-500mb layer moving into the area from the north support its
cooler temperature forecast of low 70s to low 80s. The HRRR hints at
some stratus in the morning with some cloudiness in the afternoon.
The GFS and ECMWF have varying solutions which only complicates the
forecast. At this point I`ve blended the NBM with
CONSSHORT/BCCONSSHORT to produce high temperatures in the upper 70s
to upper 80s which isnt too far off from the better performing
temperature guidance the past few days. There will be some slight
chance and low chance pops for the area in the afternoon as a batch
of moisture moves into far eastern Colorado from the northwest.
We`ll also have some breezy northeast winds for much of the day. For
the overnight hours the main question will be how much dry air aloft
moves into the area from the northwest which will in turn keep the
better moisture availability to the western and southwestern
counties of our area. The NAM appears to be the driest of the models
while the GFS and ECMWF have quite a bit more moisture. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday-Sunday night...drier air aloft moves in from the northeast
pushing the monsoonal moisture west and generally out of our area
during the afternoon and overnight hours. High temperatures are
expected to range from the upper 70s to mid 80s in far eastern
Colorado to the mid 80s to around 90 degrees across the rest of the
area. Low temperatures fall into the mid 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

The extended period features a more active pattern as the ridge that
has been bringing the hot temperatures to the central plains shifts
off to the east, allowing northwesterly flow to become dominant with
numerous shortwave disturbances moving into the area. Monday, widely
scattered to isolated storms are possible in the afternoon due to
diurnal heating. The main threat for showers and storms will form
off of the Front Range and move to the east towards the plains.
Severe weather does not look likely as this point with less than
1000 j/kg of MLCAPE and weak shear. GFS forecast soundings do
indicate a fairly moist environment with PWAT values ranging from
1.25-1.5" across east Colorado and extending towards Highway 25. Any
storm that moves over an area may see an isolated risk for flash
flooding. High temperatures for the day will be slightly below to
near climatological normal with mid 80s to low 90s across the

Tuesday, guidance indicates a stronger disturbance moving off of the
Rockies creating showers and storms during the afternoon and evening
and treks east again towards the plains. Like the previous day, the
severe threat looks low but PWAT values are again high (1.25 to
~1.75) from north to south creating another isolated flash flood
risk for areas the storms track over. High temperatures Tuesday are
forecasted to range in the 80s with overnight lows falling into the
upper 50s to mid 60s across the forecast area.

Wednesday through the end of the period, guidance shows multiple
disturbances moving into the area with northwest flow continuing.
The timing differences between multiple runs creates low confidence
which as a result keeps pops at slight chance with this forecast
package; as confidence increases with timing and magnitude of these
disturbances pops may increase in future forecasts. A slow warming
trend starts on Wednesday with low to mid 80s forecasted before
widespread 90s takes over the area. The CPC Day 8-14 Hazards map
does have the entire Tri-State area in a slight risk for excessive
heat; this warming trend may indicate the start of another pattern
shift just outside of this forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

KGLD...VFR conditions are currently expected through the period. A
south wind under 10kts at taf issuance will increase from mid
morning through the afternoon with gusts of 25kts or so expected.
Winds subside below 12kts by 01z and continue through about 08z
then shift to the north through the rest of the period as a cold
front moves through. Stratus/fog and sub VFR conditions are
possible behind the front. For now kept the forecast VFR.

KMCK...Sub VFR conditions are expected from taf issuance through
13z with light and variable winds as the terminal is near a
frontal boundary. From 14z to 05z a south to southeast wind is
expected at speeds approaching 12kts with some higher gusts. After
06z winds shift to the northeast then north at speeds up to 10kts
as a cold front moves through. Stratus/fog and sub VFR conditions
are possible behind the front. For now kept the forecast VFR.


Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Jul 30 2021

The combination of dry fuels, south winds gusting to 30 mph, and
relative humidity values in the upper teens to low 20 percent
range will produce Elevated to Near Critical fire conditions from
noon MDT (1 PM CDT) to 4 PM MDT (5 PM CDT) today generally along
and west of the Colorado/Kansas border. Outdoor burning is not
advised. Burn bans may be in effect for your county.




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