Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270901
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SHORT TERM [through Wednesday Night]...

Hot weather, increased cloud cover and thunderstorm chances are the
main weather stories today. The region is positioned between an
upper level ridge centered over the Rockies and an upper-level low
over the Deep South Texas/northeastern Mexico. The influence of the
ridge aloft becomes weaker, resulting in a more dominant easterly
flow over the region. This flow pattern aloft will result in
different energy impulses riding over the region today and
Wednesday.

As of 3AM this morning, an area of showers and thunderstorms
associated with a weak sfc trough over the Louisiana area will
continue to move westward into the Upper Texas coast this morning.
Expect these showers/storms to weaken as they reach our coastal
zones this morning. Best chances for isolated to scattered showers
and storms are expected later today. While we remain slightly capped
through most of the day, the atmosphere will become less stable as
moisture increases (PWs around 2.0 inches) with moderate instability
at low to mid-levels and convective temperatures in the low 90s.
This activity is expected to develop along and east of I-45, with
better chances in the afternoon and evening. Another hot day is
expected, though cloud cover should result in some cooling. Highs
are expected to reach the low to mid 90s.

Rain and storm chances continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as
another vort max/disturbance moves over the region. These
showers/storms could be enhanced by the interaction of
seabreezes/outflow boundaries. Have continued with 20-40 percent
chance over most of the CWA. 05

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

With a persistent central U.S. mid/upper level ridge, will continue
to carry mainly diurnal rain chances each day as enough weakness along
the ridge`s southern fringes traverse the area and precipitable water
values remain elevated. A slight strengthening of the ridge over the
weekend could end up bringing a decrease in area rain chances. The ridge
looks to reposition itself to the west toward the end of the weekend
and into the start of next week, and this pattern change could eventually
allow for a southward sagging cold front to get close enough to bring
rising rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures to parts of the
area.

The main weather feature will continue to be elevated heat index values
that outside of rain areas could occasionally approach a 105-110 range.
All heat safety precautions should continue to be taken.  42

&&

.MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate winds the first half along with
smooth to slightly choppy bay waters and 1 to 3 foot seas can be
expected for the remainder of the week and on into the weekend.
Mainly low rain chances will be in the forecast.  42

&&

.CLIMATE...

Houston Hobby Airport tied their record high minimum temperature
yesterday when the low only dropped to 79 degrees. The old record
of 79 was last set in 2020. So far this month, the average low
temperature of 77.7 degrees ranks as Hobby`s 5th warmest July 1-26
on record (dating back to 1931). In first place is 79.1 degrees
set in 2020, and in fact all of the ten warmest July 1-26 records
have occurred since 2010.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      97  76  95  75  96 /  20  20  40  10  20
Houston (IAH)              95  76  96  77  96 /  30  30  40  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            91  81  91  82  91 /  20  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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