Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 301435
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1035 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures with an upper ridge over the area,
and a Heat Advisory is in effect today for the area. A front
will drop into the region late today and tonight, then stall
along the coast through next week. Unsettled weather is expected
for the weekend, and a wet weather pattern early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No real changes to the forecast. Debris cloudiness may be
keeping temperatures a bit low this morning but a long way to go
regarding heating and the heat advisory is looking good. The
latest near term/high resolution guidance has backed off
convective coverage this afternoon however it wasn`t very high
to start.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
`Hot With Isolated Strong to Severe TSTMs` could headline today,
although TSTMs may remain confined to SE NC, and I-95 NE SC, as
a surface trough sags SSE into the area late today and tonight
before essentially going quasi-stationary. Areas without
convergence or lift source, are apt to get shut out on rain
today, as remnant column inhibition lurks with upper ridge in
vicinity. With diurnal cooling tonight and dryness aloft
lingering, convection should wane fairly rapidly tonight. Hot
when factoring in seasonal dewpoints and a `Heat Advisory` is in
effect for all of the forecast area.

The main threat this afternoon and evening will be micro-bursts
since downdraft CAPE will likely be elevated, steering winds are
on the light side. Intense surface heating in afternoon to
induce high low-level lapse rates and we`ll approach 3000 joules
MUCAPE in afternoon. Saturday will see convection, but focused
near the coast, with less intense heating, so the storm threat
appears a little lower, but it will be closer to the busy
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Active weather expected through Sun night with broad 5h trough over
the East Coast and weak front stalled in the area. Surface wave
moving east along the front will enhance rain chances Sat night into
Sun. Abundant moisture and weak love level convergence, along with
instability from diurnal heating, will keep shower and thunderstorm
coverage elevated Sun and Sun night. Precipitable water will be at
or above 2" into Sun night before a small amount of mid-level dry
air moves in. Dry air combined with loss of heating may result in a
downturn in coverage, but still think storm coverage will be higher
than the climatological 30%. Highs on Sun will be near climo despite
cloud cover. Lows end up running several degrees above climo each
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mid-level trough axis will linger west of the region through Thu.
This will keep a surface boundary stalled in the area while
maintaining a strong Gulf moisture tap. A pattern conducive to
increased coverage of storms. Expect coverage to increase during the
afternoon and evening, but even overnight and early morning storms
should be expected. Precipitable water at or above 2" at times each
day and deep warm cloud layer will promote storms capable of
producing excessive rainfall rates. Front will waiver back and forth
with slightly cooler air moving in from time to time.

- Higher than seasonal rainfall chances, at least 50-60% each day.

- Clouds and rain will keep highs below climo with lows near to
  slightly above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly VFR through the 12Z TAF period, increasingly breezy as
a front to the north drops south in vicinity of SE NC by 20Z,
with SW gusts up to 22kts. Cumulus at 3000-5000ft start building
late this morning, and some will continue to tower upward.
Thunderstorms may become strong with gusts in excess of 45kts,
although isolated in coverage. In and near storms, brief MVFR
to IFR conditions are possible in addition to erratic gusty
wind. KFLO and KLBT have the best chance for more active weather
generally late this afternoon, becoming a problem for KILM this
evening. Winds to remain SW through TAF cycle.

Extended Outlook...Stalled front in the vicinity of the Eastern
Carolinas will result in periodic MVFR/IFR from tstorms
especially early next week, remaining unsettled. Outside of
TSTMs winds will be light to moderate.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday:
 Advisory marine flags raised for SW wind gusts to 25 knots, as
a surface trough drops south near the waters and tightens the
pressure gradient. In response, wind-waves will increase to 4-5
feet every 5 seconds, making for steep waves in white cap
conditions. Also it is likely a few strong TSTMs will blossom
over land and move over the inshore waters near or north of Surf
City later today. Winds will ease tonight and Saturday as the
trough moves closer to the coast. stalling. This will maintain
TSTMs in the forecast through Saturday, but outside of TSTMs,
winds and seas will become more manageable. A very weak Bermuda
swell will remain present but less than 2 feet offshore and 1
foot or less inshore. Radar updates are encouraged this period
because some storms may become severe.

Saturday night through Tuesday:
Southwest flow will be the dominant regime Sat night through
Tue with very little directional shift. Speeds will be more
variable, 10 to 15 kt except for a period of 15 to 20 kt Sun and
Sun night. Weak surface low moving along boundary stalled just
inland from the coast will tighten the gradient, leading to the
increase in winds. Seas 3 to 4 ft Sat night build to 4 ft Sun
and 4 to 5 ft Sun night before falling back to 3 to 4 ft Mon and
Tue. The south to southwest wind wave will be dominant over a
south to southeast swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...IGB
MARINE...08/III


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