Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 281737
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
133 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and rain will accompany a cold front moving off the coast
this morning. High pressure will bring dry and cool weather
tonight through Friday. A warming trend is expected this weekend
as the high moves offshore. The next chance of rain will
accompany a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface cold front continues to slide southeastward and
should be crossing the beaches no later than 6 AM. Cooler air
undercutting the moist and slightly unstable airmass aloft will
help sustain showers and elevated coastal thunderstorms through
the morning hours. Heavy rainfall could create an isolated
flooding threat, but this potential appears to be limited to
southeastern North Carolina between now and about 8 AM.
Isentropic upglide will end in the lower levels by mid morning
within the deepening cold advection behind the front, but may
linger way up on the 310K theta surface (near 600 mb or 12kft)
which will maintain clouds and areas of light rain going through
early to mid afternoon. Eventually the lift runs out even here
with dry weather expected.

The biggest forecast dilemma today concerns temperatures.
There`s at least a moderate potential the sun will come out
during the mid afternoon across the Pee Dee region with
temperatures possibly rising 6-8 degrees off their mid morning
lows. Along the coast the potential for sunshine and any
substantial rise in temperature is less. My forecast highs range
from the lower 60s across the Pee Dee region to 58-60 along the
coast, however confidence in low.

There is high confidence skies will become clear tonight after
the upper trough moves offshore and deep offshore flow is
established. High pressure will move eastward across the Deep
South, making it as far east as Alabama by sunrise Friday.
Enough of a pressure gradient should remain to keep winds from
going calm across the eastern Carolinas and forecast lows are
within a few degrees of 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Broad surface high pressure over the Deep South moves to the ESE and
offshore through this period. Chamber of commerce weather on the
way, with airmass modification kicking off. Skies should be mostly
cloudless, sans a few cirrus clouds here and there. Highs Friday in
the upper 60 near 70. Lows Friday night in the mid-to-upper 40s
inland, near 50 at the coast.

Surface winds out of the southwest bring in much warmer air
Saturday, with highs in the mid 70s inland, lower 70s at the coast.
Lows Saturday night in the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Airmass modification continues with the high pressure offshore. Dry
forecast continues, with widespread highs in the low-to-mid 80s
expected Sunday through Tuesday. Lows each night in the low-to-mid
60s.

Clouds increase Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system, which is
due to move through sometime Wednesday. Rain chances look to return
Tuesday night through Wednesday, but we`re keeping the chances
rather modest for now. This front looks to knock back temperatures
down a bit, but still above normal for early April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain done at FLO and LBT and should wrap up soon at coastal locales.
IFR cigs still widespread along the coast with some improvement
noted inland. VFR will sweep east across the area this evening and
remain for the rest of the period. NW winds relax with the loss of
heating tonight followed by a turn to westerly late in the period as
high pressure builds in from the west.


The surface cold front is offshore and cool northerly winds are now
blowing across the eastern Carolinas. Moisture overrunning the front
aloft will maintain multilayered clouds and light to moderate rain,
lasting through at least early afternoon along the coast. The
precipitating cloud base will gradually rise to 5000 feet over the
next several hours but broken low clouds in the shallow cool air
below will form IFR ceilings in the 500-800 foot AGL range. These
cloud ceilings should prevail through 16-18 UTC inland, and 19-21
UTC along the coast before breaking up and/or rising to MVFR. Skies
should clear out totally tonight after the upper level trough zips
by a few hours after sunset.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...A cold front is slipping southeastward across
the coastal plain and should cross the beaches around 6 AM,
making it 20 miles offshore no later than 8-10 AM this morning.
Light southeasterly winds will shift to the north behind the
front and then increase to 15-25 kt. A Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect through tonight for these winds plus seas
which may reach 6 feet near Frying Pan Shoals this afternoon.

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms should persist
through the remainder of the morning hours. Heavy rain could
reduce visibility below 2 miles at times. Precipitation rates
should diminish by noon, with the last of the showers ending
during the mid afternoon.

Friday through Monday...Small Craft Advisory is due to expire at 4
AM EDT Friday morning. From there, northwesterly winds at 10-15kts
back to the west by Friday afternoon, and then to the southwest by
Friday night. Winds from that point will remain locked in through
Monday. Seas mostly stick to 2-4ft.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...IGB
LONG TERM...IGB
AVIATION...MBB


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