Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 281137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
637 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Guidance has been quite consistent with little spread between
solutions in handling the heat through today. Expect temperatures
a tick higher than yesterday with similar dew points will yield
heat index values generally 100 to 104 degrees for all but
southwestern Nebraska so no changes to the current heat advisory
are needed. That being said, we will continue to heavily message
heat safety since even conditions below critical thresholds can
have adverse effects on health.

Bufkit indicates an opportunity to erode surface based CIN late in
the afternoon but moisture is limited and mid level lapse rates
are not conducive to supporting robust updrafts so will maintain
the dry forecast through today.

By late tonight a weak front will start to push into Nebraska from
the north as upper level short wave energy reinforces the trof
over the eastern US. Forcing along the front will increase as the
low level wind field amplifies but instability remains limited so
expect only limited precipitation with isolated/widely scattered
showers/thunder for north central Nebraska.

As the frontal boundary sinks down and lingers over the region on
Thursday shear along the boundary will become more favorable to
support a degree of organized convection though mid level lapse
rates continue to be a limiting factor to vigorous updrafts. While
the best short wave energy looks to slide by to our north across
the Dakotas, expect the combination of instability, increasing low
level winds late in the day, and convergence along the boundary
will be enough to trigger a few robust storms. Shear vectors
generally parallel to the boundary should yield clusters/linear
mode of convection parallel to the front with CAPE values
supporting some large hail and DCAPE values supporting a wind
threat into Thursday night. Believe location of SPC day 2 marginal
risk from the panhandle nudging into central Nebraska looks about
right, and precipitable water values starting to head into the
upper percentiles will support a threat for excessive rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

With the surface front lingering over the region through the end
of the week we may be in a wash, rinse, repeat cycle with
convective potential until the upper pattern buckles into a high
amplitude regime during the weekend, sending the front to our
south and firmly ending our heat wave. However, ensemble guidance
indicates our weather will remain fairly active with short waves
streaming down the face of the western ridge with a chance for some
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into the first part of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Expect partly sunny skies this afternoon with breezy winds gusting
up to 20 knots in the morning, decreasing to less than 15 knots
for the afternoon. A weak frontal boundary approaching from the
north this evening will bring about a wind shift at VTN with a
low-end chance for showers and weak convection prior to the end of
the forecast period. Confidence in this leading to direct impacts
at VTN is low, however, so will omit for now.


Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for



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