Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301431
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 AM EDT Fri Jul 30 2021

.UPDATE...
The Atlantic ridge axis continues to remain south of the local
area today, yielding generally SW/W flow before the sea breeze
develops along the coast this afternoon. Satellite observations
show mid level dry air filtering in from north to south this
morning, which is verified by a slight drying in the 10Z XMR
sounding compared to yesterday. This dry air is not sufficient
enough to have a significant affect on the available moisture
today, since PWATs are expected to remain around 1.75"+; However,
will see a minor reduction in PoPs for this afternoon at around
40-50%, with the highest PoPs from Kissimmee/Melbourne southward.

A bit of a later start to convection expected compared to the
previous few days. The HRRR suggests isolated showers and storms
forming along the west coast sea breeze as it pushes into the
area. Then, coverage becoming scattered, as it collides with the
east coast breeze later in the afternoon. Steering flow will be
generally W at around 5-10kts, though erratic storm motions will
be possible due to boundary collisions. Main threats from the
strongest storms will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
up to around 40 mph, and torrential downpours. Slow storm motion
today may allow some areas to receive 1-3" in a short period of
time. Heavy rainfall could lead to nuisance flooding, especially
across areas that have seen high totals over the past few days.
Highs this afternoon reaching the low to mid-90s, as heat indices
soar to between 101 and 107 degrees.

Convective activity will largely diminish by mid-evening, with dry
conditions expected for the overnight across land portions of the
forecast area. Lows remaining in the mid to upper 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon,
though drier air will decrease coverage slightly compared to the
previous few days. Confidence on timing/location of activity
remains too low for TEMPO groups at this time; However, VCTS is
mentioned at all TAF sites for this afternoon and will be
monitored for future amendments. Coverage will likely begin near
interior terminals initially. Then, spread eastward towards the
coast, increasing as the sea breeze boundaries collide. W/SW winds
this morning backing SE this afternoon along the coast as the sea
breeze develops and pushes slightly inland. Convection will
diminish this evening, with no precipitation expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon, with
the highest coverage affecting the Intracoastal and nearshore
Atlantic waters. The strongest storms will be capable of frequent
lightning strikes, torrential downpours, and wind gusts up to
35kts. Storms will generally move eastward, but rather slow
steering flow will leave the possibility for some erratic storm
motions. Otherwise, offshore flow around 10kts or less this
morning will back S/SE and increase to 10-15kts this afternoon as
the sea breeze develops. Winds 10-15kts, with 15kts across the
Gulf Stream waters, will persist through midnight, while veering
W/SW again. Seas 1-2ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  76  94  77 /  30  10  30  10
MCO  94  77  95  77 /  50  10  40  10
MLB  93  77  93  77 /  50  10  40  20
VRB  93  75  94  76 /  50  20  40  20
LEE  93  77  94  78 /  40  10  40  10
SFB  94  77  95  77 /  40  10  40  10
ORL  94  78  95  78 /  40  10  40  10
FPR  93  74  93  75 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Leahy/Negron


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