Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 270538
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Main Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

1) Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue into
this evening, mainly across the southern mountains and far southern
plains, near the Colorado and New Mexico border. Flash flooding risk
will continue for mainly the Spring Burn Scar through early evening.
Similar thunderstorm chances for the same location expected Tuesday
afternoon, though likely less in coverage.

Latest radar imagery depicting isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms continuing to develop over the southern mountains
and far southern plains. This development is occurring within
surface trough axis, where slightly higher dewpoint air and
instability is situated. While there is some upper level support,
the forcing has been generally weak with instability and shear also
on the weaker side. This has resulted in weaker storms this
afternoon, though brief periods of heavy rainfall have been
observed. With no real change expected with this setup and
environment this afternoon and evening, expect similar trends with
coverage and intensity. While some small hail and gusty winds could
still occur with an isolated stronger storm, brief heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding mainly for the burn scars are the main
hazards through mid evening. Given where these storms are expected
to continue developing, the Spring burn scar would be most at risk.
Similar thunderstorm chances are expected Tuesday afternoon, but
with even less forcing and moisture, expect the coverage of storms
to also be less.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

...Drier and warmer during the week...
...Wetter pattern for the weekend...

.Wednesday through Friday...High pressure aloft will build to the
north of the region and gradually move to the south and east. Flow
aloft becomes light easterly with drier air aloft moving into he
region. Precipitable water progs show the monsoon plume getting
pushed to the west of the region. There will still be enough
moisture for diurnal convection, mostly over the mountains with the
highest PoPs in the eastern San Juan Mountains. With the drier
atmosphere, convection will be high based with generally light QPF.
With the generally easterly flow aloft, any storms will have trouble
moving off of the mountains with mostly isolated PoPs or lower from
the Interstate 25 corridor and eastward. Highs on the plains will be
above average with values around 100 in the lower Arkansas River
Vally.

.Saturday through Monday...Upper high weakens and moves to the
southeast. This allows for the amount of monsoon moisture to
increase. In addition, the models and ensembles indicated a cold
front will bring an increase in low level moisture to the plains and
eastern mountains. Grids show an increase in PoPs for this period
with cooler daytime highs. Too early to get specific. Models and
ensemble suggest the most abundant moisture for the plains on Sunday
and Monday with the potential for some locally heavy rain.
--PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Jul 26 2021

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with generally
light diurnally driven winds under 15 kts. KALS has the best
chance for VCSH/VCTS on Tuesday afternoon and evening which could
bring erratic gusty outflow winds into the TAF site depending on
proximity to the showers. Will reflect VCSH in the TAF for now as
confidence is low that terminal will be impacted given the more
isolated coverage of storms tomorrow. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...KT


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