Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 270728
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
328 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A front located to our south may bring a chance for a few showers
and thunderstorms today across North Carolina and southern
Virginia. Areas to the north will be dry and warm. High pressure
will reinforce the drier conditions Wednesday and Thursday, with
temperatures reaching the mid to upper 90s east of the Blue
Ridge by Thursday. Another cold front should approach from the
northwest by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday...

The main concern this morning is patchy dense fog which has
formed under mostly clear skies and in areas that received rain
today, as well as river valleys. Have issued a dense fog
advisory form portions of WV and west central VA until 9 AM.
Visibilities will begin improving once the sun comes up.

Skies should be mostly to partly sunny this morning for WV and
much of west central VA. Northern NC as well as the higher
terrain will see more cloud cover, with showers and
thunderstorms developing later today, although there will be
much less coverage today. The cold front which moved through
last night stretched across TN, NC and then north into eastern
VA. With the boundary to the south, convection should be weak
and of the pulse variety, and am not expecting anything too
impressive, although we could see brief heavy rain across
northern NC. Storms will weaken after sunset with the loss of
heating.

Highs today will be in the 80s along and west of the Blue Ridge,
and generally in the lower 90s to the east. Tonight we will see
another night of clear skies with good radiational cooling
potential. High pressure will be centered to our west, but still
we should have light enough winds that fog will develop once
again. Lows will range from the low 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

...Drier and hotter Wednesday and Thursday with showers and storms
returning Thursday night into Friday...

High pressure at the surface and increasing heights aloft will
result in Wednesday being precip-free and hotter than Tuesday. On
Thursday, a cold front will be heading south through the Ohio
Valley. It`s proximity to the area may be enough to help trigger
some late afternoon showers and storms across the far northern parts
of our region. However, for the most part, hot and dry conditions
will be common for most of the region Thursday. Heat index values
may approach the century mark across the far southeast part of the
forecast area.

Thursday night through Friday night, the cold front will approach,
cross, and then head south of the region. This will prompt
increasing coverage of showers and storms, especially during the
late Thursday night through Friday time frame.

Temperatures across the area are expected to average about five
degrees above normal through this portion of the forecast.

Confidence in the this portion of the forecast is moderate to
high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Tuesday...

..Cooler and unsettled heading into next week...

During this portion of the forecast, flow across CONUS will be
marked by upper level ridging across the Rockies/Plains states and a
broad trough across the Great Lakes/East Coast region. However,
notable differences are evident within the various deterministic
models regarding any related closed lows or more progressive
shortwave troughs which may translate through the broader eastern
U.S. trough. These differences will add an increased level of lower
confidence in timing of any periods of increased precipitation
chances across the region.

Keeping this challenge in mind, the following scenario is likely to
undergo changes as we get closer to the time in question. However,
the latest guidance trends offer Saturday as a day with the
potential for isolated to scattered storms across the region,
especially across the southwest, closest to a departing cold front.

Sunday looks to be a day of increased, at least scattered, coverage
with a cold front either approaching the region, or situated just
northwest of the region.

Monday will also be a day with potentially scattered coverage in the
afternoon with one of two features being the focus of convection.
Either, Sunday`s cold front will not pass too far south of the
region. Or, it does progress far enough south not to be an
influence, but yet another upstream cold front approaches the area
from the Ohio Valley.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to
trend from around normal on Saturday to around five degrees below
normal by Monday.

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate to high in regards to
the expected temperature forecast trend through the period thank to
a persistent broad upper trough across the region. However,
confidence in time periods with the greatest potential for
precipitation is low to moderate for the reasons described above.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

Fog has developed across the area with some spots reporting
visibilities less than a quarter mile. BCB/LWB/BLF/LYH all have
a chances at seeing VLIFR conditions due to fog through about
12Z. After that, expect VFR to prevail for all terminals.
Spotty showers and thunderstorms will pop up this afternoon,
especially towards DAN and also along the spine of the Blue
Ridge which would include BCB and ROA. However there is not a
high enough chance to include SHRA/TSRA in any TAFs.

The front looks like it will push far enough away Wednesday for
VFR conditions everywhere. Winds will be light and from the NW.

Moderate confidence in ceilings,visibilities and winds during
this TAF cycle.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Wednesday and Thursday look dry with prevailing VFR everywhere.
Light NW winds Wednesday will increase to 8-10 kts Thursday and
become westerly.

Another cold front should arrive by Friday with an increased
chance for showers and thunderstorms once again. Given northwest
flow aloft across the region thanks to a building ridge in the
central/south central U.S., disturbances may bring convection to
the area at times throughout the week. Will need to keep an eye
on the upper midwest/Ohio Valley area. Unsettled weather will
return over the weekend with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH


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