Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 270655

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

A strong U/L ridge over the central plains extends to the
southeast U.S. bridging with another area of high pressure over
the western Atlantic. An U/L disturbance will push across the
Great Lakes and New England today and tonight. The southern extent
of the associated U/L trough will cause a break/weakness in the
ridge along the southeast coast and north Florida. This slight
lowering heights will decrease large scale subsidence over the
peninsula allowing convection to be enhanced over the region for
the next couple of days.

The U/L ridge over the central plains will build southeast over
the Florida peninsula late in the week through Saturday which will
build heights over the forecast area increasing large scale
subsidence. Late in the weekend and early next week, a strong U/L
disturbance will dig over the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. which
will again breakdown the ridge over Florida with the southern
extent of the associated U/L trough digging over the southeast
U.S. and Florida.

PCPW values have increased to AOA 2 inches across the forecast
area. South to southwest flow will promote scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal counties
early in the day spreading inland and increasing in areal coverage
during the afternoon hours. Relatively weak boundary layer flow
will create favorable conditions for locally heavy rain and
ponding of water on roadways and in low lying areas.

Surface ridge axis will become established across south Florida
and the Florida straits which will lock in west to southwest
boundary layer flow for the remainder of the week and over the
weekend. This pattern will promote scattered late night/early
morning showers and thunderstorms developing over the coastal
waters, advecting onshore typically around sunrise. Thunderstorm
activity will increase over the coastal counties during the
morning and early afternoon hours, spreading inland and increasing
in areal coverage through the remainder of each day. The onshore
flow will create very warm muggy uncomfortable conditions each day
with overnight temperatures struggling to drop to around 80 near
the coast. Daytime highs will run 90 to 95...with upper 80s along
the immediate coast.


VFR conditions will prevail today. Numerous mainly afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will develop with LCL MVFR CIGS 020-030
and IFR VSBYS which may impact terminals across west central and
southwest Florida for a few hours.


Weak gradient will keep winds below advisory levels through the
period with seas 3 feet or less. Main hazard will be scattered
mainly overnight and early morning showers and thunderstorms
which could produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.


No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  82  90  81 /  70  40  50  20
FMY  91  78  91  77 /  70  30  50  20
GIF  91  77  92  76 /  70  40  60  30
SRQ  90  79  91  79 /  70  40  50  20
BKV  91  75  90  74 /  70  30  60  30
SPG  89  81  90  82 /  60  40  50  20


FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Lee.

Gulf waters...None.


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