


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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517 FXUS63 KUNR 150455 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1055 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms tonight, some storms may be strong to severe and capable of large hail and damaging winds. - Chances for storms continue Tuesday into Wednesday with significant cooldown for Wednesday. - Unsettled and warmer after Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 109 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Current visible satellite imagery depicts mostly clear skies with building CU over the northern Black Hills. Temperatures across the region are in the upper 80s to upper 90s with a few stations across southwestern SD and the western SD plains reaching the triple digit mark. Dewpoints across the western SD plains have climbed into the 50s to low 60s with moderately unstable but capped airmass developing over the region. The cap should keep widespread convection from developing through this afternoon with the exception of the Black Hills where terrain influenced convergence may be enough to overcome the capping. Marginal deep layer shear (20-30kt) will be enough to support organized and high-based convection with deep, well-mixed boundary layers supporting a damaging wind threat. Increasing height falls ahead of an approaching shortwave will provide large scale ascent later this afternoon and evening with widerspread convection as a result. While shear still looks marginal, the stronger updrafts could support an isolated hail/wind threat. Set of impulses ahead of a positively tilted shortwave will move across the region Tuesday. This will support another round of storms as a sfc cool front drifts southward through the day. There`s a chance for severe storms towards south central SD as the front passes through in the afternoon. Hi-res models still indicate bowing squall line developing there in the afternoon/evening. Strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday as upper level trof crosses the Northern Plains. This will bring much cooler temps (highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s, which sits at around 20-30 degrees below average for this time of year). Upper level jet streak moves over the region Wednesday with the CWA sitting under the diffluent entrance region. This will provide decent lift and a chance for showers and isolated storms through Wednesday. Weak upper level ridging and height rises will help things dry out on Thursday with warming temperatures. Temperatures will moderate through this weekend with unsettled westerly flow supporting at least low chances for showers/storms. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night) Issued At 1055 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight across northeast WY and western SD, then moving into central SD in the late morning. A cold front will cross the forecast area through the day on Tuesday, bringing widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS. More storms will develop late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong AVIATION...13