Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FNUS73 KBIS 251257
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Arrowwood WF...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
757 AM CDT Sun Jul 25 2021

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 CDT on July 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Hot temperatures are expected at the burn site the next few days,
with highs pushing well into the 90s. Today will be quite dry, with
relative humidity values dropping into the lower 20s. Low chances for
overnight thunderstorms are expected to remain south of the burn site.
On Monday, humidity is expected to be higher, with minimum values
in the 30s. The main concern for Monday is a wind shift from southerly
to north-northwesterly which is expected to occur during the mid
to late afternoon hours.


.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds becoming
                    south to southwest 6 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Light and variable in the early morning, becoming
                    south to southwest around 10 mph in the late
                    morning and the afternoon afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (62200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   3   3   3   5   7   8   6   5   4
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  70  76  81  85  88  89  92  93  94
RH..............75  59  46  36  27  24  25  25  24  22
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S
20 FT wind spd..4   6   6   7   9   7   8   8   10  9
20 FT wind gust.7   9   9   11  13  14  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.9 2.6 4.2 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.8 8.9 9.6
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.2   5   5   6   9   10  10  12  12  10
Haines index....6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Becoming variable around 5 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Becoming variable around 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 96.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable in the early morning, becoming
                    southerly at 8 to 12 mph in the late morning into
                    the early afternoon. Around mid to late afternoon,
                    winds are expected to shift to the northwest, then
                    north
Mixing height.......8900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southerly around 10 mph in the morning, then
                    shifting to the northwest 10 to 17 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...SCHILD
Requested by...ENGB-T
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2116389.0/BIS
.DELDT 07/25/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL Kalee_dennert@fws.gov


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