Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 221426
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Turkey Pen RX...BIA-MESCALERO
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
826 AM MDT Thu Jul 22 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on July 22.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil weather is expected for much of the day beneath partly
cloudy skies. Highs will be close to average with min RH values
dropping to around 45 percent. An isolated shower or storm cannot
be ruled out this afternoon, so there is a slight chance for a
storm to impact the burn site. Overnight tonight, an upper-level
system will approach the area, which will keep and later increase storm
chances in the through tomorrow afternoon. Winds, outside of
thunderstorms, will be mainly light. Vent rates will be poor.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Haze in the
                    morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon. Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1600, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100-1600 ft AGL increasing to 7300-8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 4 to 5 mph shifting to the northwest 3 to
                    4 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then shifting to the south 5 to 6 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (24700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM
Sky (%).........49     60     60     60
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....HAZE   HAZE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      20     20
LAL.............1      1      3      4
Temp............65     67     68     67
RH..............46     42     44     45
20 ft wind......W 7    W 7    W 8    W 7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   7300   8600   7700
Transport wind..W 7    NW 3   NW 2   S 5
Haines index....2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11     25     25     25
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
                    then isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2000, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL decreasing to 200-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 7 mph shifting to the west 1 to
                    2 mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........67     67     67     56     56     56
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).30     30     20     20     20     20
LAL.............4      4      3      3      3      3
Temp............70     67     59     55     54     54
RH..............45     51     67     77     81     77
20 ft wind......W 6    W 5    SW 5   W 6    W 6    SW 6
20 ft wind gust.8      7      6      7      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....5000   2300   500    200    400    500
Transport wind..SW 7   W 6    NW 1   SW 0   S 2    SW 6
Haines index....2      2      3      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14     14     14     1      1      1
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    morning. Rain showers and thunderstorms likely
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................3 until 0600, then 4 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-1700 ft AGL increasing to 3900 ft AGL late
                    in the morning, then increasing to 5200-6000 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon decreasing to 4000
                    ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (37200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........56        56        55        55
Weather cov.....ISOLTD    CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD    CHANCE    CHANCE    LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).20        30        30        70
LAL.............3         4         4         5
Temp............51        58        66        66
RH..............86        82        60        63
20 FT wind......W 7G8     W 6G8     W 6G10    W 7G11
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1700      6000      5200
Transport wind..W 5       SW 8      SW 10     SW 7
Haines index....3         3         2         3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17        17        37        37
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 7 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows
around 50. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around 7 mph.
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 60s. South winds around 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Wilmer LaPaz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2116216.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/22/21
.EMAIL wilmer.lapaz@bia.gov


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