Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 270703
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 28 2021 - 00Z Wed Aug 04 2021

Models and ensembles agree that high pressure cells bridging to
the north of the state will support moderate to locally brisk
island trades this week that will act to focus rainfall over
windward terrain. However, multiple areas of enhanced moisture may
contribute to increased rainfall coverage and intensity under a
mean upper trough. Expect remnant tropical moisture from Guillermo
today and with a weak disturbance slated to skirt along and to the
south of the state Thursday/Friday. Expect relatively drier air
and upper ridge development over the islands in the wake of these
systems this weekend into next week. Overall, a model and ensemble
composite blend seems reasonable.

Schichtel

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