Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Tuscaloosa, AL

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511
AGUS74 KWCO 151510
HMDNWC

National Hydrologic Discussion - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa AL
1015 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

.Synopsis...
River flooding ongoing flash flooding possible in portions of the Upper
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley... Monsoon activity increases this week in the
Four Corners Region... Ongoing river flooding with flash and small stream
flooding possible in the Middle Mississippi Valley... Flooding possible in
Puerto Rico and in the Eastern Carolinas and Southeast Virginia... Isolated
flooding in portions of the Alaskan Panhandle...

.Discussion...

.Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding continues to be possible
throughout portions of southern WI, IL, OH, southern MI, northern KY, and
WV through day 3 (Wed). Rainfall totals of 1 to 4" (with locally higher
possible) are forecast as rainfall shifts south and east each day. Soils
are rather dry throughout much of the region (<50% 0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA
SPoRT), although soils are wet across southern WI and northern IL (>50% 0 -
10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT). Rainfall each day will help to moisten soils and
increase the flood threat, especially if training or repeated rounds of
rainfall occur over any specific area.

Isolated moderate river flooding is ongoing and forecast, primarily in
portions of northern IN on the Tippecanoe River, northern IL on the Rock
River, southern WI on the Kickapoo River, and southern MI on the Huron
River. The majority of these rivers are expected to fall below flood stage
by midweek, except on the Tippecanoe River (IN), which is forecast to
remain in moderate flood stage through the week. Elsewhere, scattered minor
river flooding is ongoing or forecast throughout the region.

.Four Corners Region...
Increasing moisture across the region will bring the threat of isolated
flash flooding in arroyos, slot canyons, urban, and recently burned areas.
Heavy rainfall will continue for portions of AZ, NM, UT, and CO through day
1 (Mon). More widespread coverage and heavier rainfall amounts are forecast
beginning on day 2 (Tue) and persisting through day 7 (Sun), especially
across much of AZ, NM, and CO. This will likely increase the threat for
locally significant impacts in these areas, especially as soils are likely
to become wetter as time progresses and soil infiltration capacity
decreases.

.Middle Mississippi Valley...
Isolated flash and small stream flooding is possible across portions of
central and southern MO and southern IL on day 2 (Tue) as moderate to
locally heavy rainfall affects the region. While soils have dried somewhat
in the wake of recent rainfall, they remain somewhat wet (50-70% 0-10 and
0-100 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT). This should help to mitigate widespread flooding
impacts, but isolated flooding, and locally significant impacts, are
possible.

The broad flood wave on the Mississippi River, where moderate to major
flooding is ongoing, appears to be located somewhere between Davenport, IA
to Burlington, IA. Generally light to moderate precipitation through day 1
(Mon) should allow for unimpeded recessions on the river to continue.

.Eastern Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
Isolated flash and urban flooding will be possible in response to several
rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall that will impact the region
starting on day 3 (Wed) and continuing through day 5 (Fri). Soils are
generally dry (<50% 0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT) farther inland, but are much
wetter near the coast (~70% 0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT). Rainfall each day
will help to moisten soils and increase the flood threat, especially if
convection and training or repeated rounds of rainfall occur over any
particular area.

.Puerto Rico...
Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible through day 2
(Tue) across western and central portions of the island.

.Alaskan Panhandle...
Isolated urban and small stream flooding will be possible through day 1
(Mon), especially in areas of steep terrain. Minor river flooding is
forecast on the Chilkat and Taiya rivers as well as on rivers and creeks in
the Juneau area.

//JAW

$$