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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KTBW 091145
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
745 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

.UPDATE...
Coastal showers have once again shown up offshore this morning along
the Nature Coast. However, these are quickly fading away now with
the collapse of the land breeze. The rest of the morning should
remain fairly quiet, with temperatures rapidly warming to typical
summertime levels.

The environmental setup today is very similar to yesterday. There
are very light winds throughout the atmospheric column. This will
again lead to erratic storm motion and outflow boundary
propagation as storms begin to develop later on today. The initial
source of convective activity should be confined to sea breeze
boundaries, but boundary collisions will become more important
later in the day.

Once again, the thermodynamics do not support much in the way of
severe weather. However, ample instability and a moist column will
support storms producing locally heavy rains and frequent lightning.
As is the case with any thunderstorm, they will still have to be
monitored throughout the day as they can still produce gusty winds,
and hail is not impossible if a storm grows tall enough.

A few adjustments have been made to the POP grids to capture the
showers offshore, and where they are fading away. Additionally,
winds have been adjusted slightly to better capture sea breeze
development. Otherwise, the forecast looks on track. A few more
minor adjustments may be made, but no other major changes are
anticipated before the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail with light winds under 10kts. A favorable
environment exists this afternoon for thunderstorms to develop near
airports again, much like yesterday. This could lead to periods
of MVFR/IFR conditions, but this is too uncertain for mention at
this time. Conditions will quiet again tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Benign boating conditions continue under high pressure. While the
bulk of storms are expected to remain onshore again today, mariners
should keep an eye to the east for storms they may drift back
towards coastal waters, particularly late this afternoon and into
the evening. The otherwise light winds and seas may become locally
hazardous with passing storms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  95  78  94  78 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  95  76  95  76 /  50  20  40  30
GIF  95  76  94  76 /  50  20  60  30
SRQ  94  76  93  77 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  95  74  94  75 /  40  20  50  20
SPG  95  79  94  79 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Flannery