Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 221900 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight-Saturday)...
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High pressure will continue to ridge southward from the northeast U.S. while Maria moves north well east of the Florida peninsula. This pattern will keep an east to northeast flow across the region with Atlantic moisture spreading westward. For tonight the east coast sea breeze will move westward bringing an increase in the flow during the evening and helping to push any convection out into the eastern gulf. Skies will then be partly cloudy overnight with temperatures falling into lower to middle 70s. On Saturday we`ll have plenty of moisture, precipitable water 1.9 to 2.1 inches, in place and with daytime heating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop and move westward across the region during mainly the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will continue to be near to a couple of degrees above normal with daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. .MID TERM/LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Friday)... A mid/upper-level low will linger over the southeastern U.S. through the end of the weekend and into early next week. A trough/low out west will amplify into midweek as ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. At the surface, high pressure will remain centered to our north while Maria moves northward across the western Atlantic. Low-level flow will be easterly through Sunday and Monday, with isolated to scattered rain chances each afternoon, mainly moving from east to west. Some slightly drier air will move in over the region as Maria passes slowly to our northeast, so rain chances will be lower for the remainder of the week. There are differences in the global models as we head into the end of the week and into next weekend, with the GFS showing a deeper trough over the southeast and a stronger cold front starting to move into the region compared with the ECMWF. In general, it is a bit early for that deep of a trough to be this far south, but this is well out into the extended period of the forecast and model trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days.
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&& .AVIATION...
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VFR conditions will prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon and evening which could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Northeast to east winds will generally remain at 10 knots or less, but could see some gusts to around 25 knots in convection. VCTS mentioned at all TAF sites this afternoon and early evening as scattered thunderstorms will develop and move westward across the area. Saturday looks like similar to today except for a little early start to the convection.
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&& .MARINE...
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The east to northeast flow will continue with an evening surge expected tonight and again Saturday evening, but winds should remain around 15 knots or less. Then during Sunday through Tuesday the flow will diminish some as Maria moves by well to the east of Florida with the west coast sea breeze developing near the coast each afternoon.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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No fire weather concerns for the next few days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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TPA 75 89 75 90 / 20 60 20 30 FMY 75 90 74 90 / 20 60 20 40 GIF 73 89 73 90 / 10 60 10 30 SRQ 74 90 74 88 / 20 60 20 30 BKV 72 89 72 90 / 10 60 10 20 SPG 77 88 76 89 / 20 60 20 30
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&& .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle

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