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000
FXUS62 KTBW 110827
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
327 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of
moisture north of the Florida Peninsula associated with an
approaching cold front. Ample low level moisture to the south of
this boundary is leading to some patchy fog and low status this
morning, which will gradually lift out through the morning. A
dense fog advisory has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando
counties through 9 AM, but may need to be expanded if the area of
dense fog expands. As the front slowly sags south into the
forecast area today, isolated to scattered showers will be
possible, with winds increasing and turning to northeasterly along
and behind the front. The front will stall out across central
Florida through Thursday and slowly lift north Friday, with
periods of showers continuing. Because the front will not cleanly
push through the entire area, generally only the Nature Coast will
see a minor cool down, with temperatures near to slightly above
normal, and temperatures remaining well above normal from the
Tampa Bay area south.

A weak area of low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf of
Mexico Thursday night and lift northeast through northern Florida
on Friday. Since this system is forecast to remain weak, it is
not expected to bring gusty winds but it will result in more
numerous showers Friday and Friday night, mainly over the Nature
Coast and adjacent Gulf waters. The low will drag a weak cold
front behind it through the area by late Saturday, clearing out
the rain chances by Saturday evening and bringing in cooler
weather across the area through Sunday evening, although
temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal. High
pressure will then fill in behind the front, with temperatures
quickly warming back up Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy fog and low stratus will continue to develop through just
after sunrise this morning, with extended periods of MVFR-LIFR
conditions expected through at least 14z. The MVFR ceilings will
then likely linger through the rest of the morning. Even as
ceilings lift out, isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out
at any time after sunrise, and could cause brief periods of
reduced flight categories. Another round of MVFR or lower ceilings
will develop after around 00-02z this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will push south into the eastern Gulf of Mexico
today and linger through Thursday, bringing chances for showers.
Some patchy sea fog is possible through this morning on the south
side of the frontal boundary, although widespread dense fog is not
expected. Wind speeds will increase behind the front, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions expected for the offshore waters north of
Englewood this afternoon through Thursday morning, and cautionary
conditions expected for the other Gulf zones. Winds will subside
late Thursday through the upcoming weekend as a weak area of low
pressure develops over the northern Gulf and lifts northeast through
Florida, bringing increased chances for showers through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Patchy fog will lift out by mid morning. Relative humidity is not
expected to drop to critical levels through the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  62  78  65 /  30  10  10  20
FMY  83  67  81  66 /  40  30  20   0
GIF  80  63  78  65 /  40  20  30  10
SRQ  81  63  81  65 /  30  10  10  10
BKV  78  58  77  62 /  30  10  10  20
SPG  79  62  78  66 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland
     Hernando-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10
     AM EST Thursday for Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Fleming