Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 191206 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 806 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .AVIATION... Dense IFR or worse fog is in place at most terminals this morning. This should burn off/dissipate by 10AM, with some low ceilings lingering through noon. Expecting the rain today to remain to the north of the northern terminals...but will monitor. Otherwise VFR through the afternoon and early evening with gusty SSW winds. Then IFR fog is expected to return across the area after midnight. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 352 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018/ ..STRONG TO MAYBE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE?... SHORT TERM (Today-Tuesday)... Series of shortwaves and vort maxes to quickly move through the Deep South today into tonight with rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms mainly over the Nature Coast. Frontal boundary remains draped over central AL/GA today with deepening low level southerly flow increasing mean layer moisture and warm temps areawide. On Tuesday, deepening trough from the Lower Mississippi River Valley at 12Z swings over the FL Peninsula by 00Z with significant upper support and mid level jet ejecting ahead of trough axis. Surface storm system center to move through the deep south with trailing cold front and pre frontal band of convection moving from the Gulf through the area. Several models and SPC indicate possibility for strong to severe storms ahead of this system as well. But a few limiting factor are expected to be present as well, such as low-level lapse rates will not be very steep over much of FL, the E Gulf shelf waters remain cool especially since last weeks cold snap, current SSTs are 2-4 degrees below seasonal averages, and the fact the computer models have struggled to say the least with FL convection all winter season. So, am not extremely confidence at this point, but there remains a possible threat for a few damaging wind gusts or isolated tornadoes with this system. LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Tuesday night, the mid level trough is forecast to swing from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through northern Florida, pushing the cold front south through southwest Florida and into the Florida Straits. Any lingering showers or storms will dissipate and exit southwest Florida early in the evening, with cooler and drier air filling in behind the front under breezy west to northwest winds. With clear skies and continued cold air advection, temperatures will run below normal Wednesday through Friday morning, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, and morning lows from around 40 to the low 50s. Friday through Saturday, surface high pressure will build in from the northwest, with temperatures warming back up to near normal by Saturday. On Sunday, another trough will swing through the eastern seaboard, pushing a weak cold front into northern Florida. Although this front does not look strong enough to bring a significant temperature change to the area, a few showers will be possible over the Nature Coast on Sunday. AVIATION... Patchy dense field fog early this morning with IFR lcl LIFR vsby/cigs lifting into MVFR conditions mid to late morning...VFR AFT 17-18Z. S-SW winds increase in the afternoon. MARINE... Complex storm system to develop today and move through the region Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms expected. SW winds increase today reaching SCA levels Tuesday ahead of cold front. Strong high pressure to build into the region with strong and gusty NW winds and elevated choppy seas continuing hazardous marine conditions. Pressure gradient to slightly weaken Thursday with seas slow to subside. Improved marine conditions to end the work week. FIRE WEATHER... Abundant low level moisture and increasing rain chances today and Tuesday. Strong cool and very dry high pressure to filter into the region Wed-Fri. Will need to monitor how much rain the area receives and how ERCs respond for possible red flag conditions. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 78 69 77 59 / 20 20 70 10 FMY 82 69 81 62 / 10 10 50 30 GIF 84 68 83 56 / 30 10 70 20 SRQ 76 69 76 61 / 10 10 70 10 BKV 80 68 79 53 / 40 30 70 10 SPG 78 69 78 59 / 20 20 70 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...24/Hubbard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.