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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KTBW 251158
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
758 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Light ESE winds around 5-8 knots expected this morning, then
increasing WSW around 10-15 knots with higher gusts during the
afternoon. Rain chances will remain on the low side today, so will
leave out any mention of weather for now.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.Prev Discussion... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 329 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022/

DISCUSSION...
Wed: Weather pattern similar to past couple days. Subsidence caused
by the upper level ridging and a surface high pressure system
located near the Bahamas has aided in keeping rain chances low. A
strong Southeast flow continues to dominate throughout the day and
may become gusty in after 15Z for most areas. Coastal areas will
have the seabreeze influence late in the afternoon allowing for a
more southwesterly flow before turning back to east southeast early
Thursday morning.

Thurs-Sun: The current pattern begins to shift later this week as
the low pressure system that is developing over the central U.S
begins to trek east. A frontal system associated with the low
will bring an increase in rain chances. The models now seem to be
in more agreement with timing and best rain chances seem to be
Friday. The frontal should be out of the area by Sunday and high
pressure will once again settle in. Resuming our east southeast
breeze pattern with afternoon convection possible along the
seabreeze convergence. Temperatures will remain above average but
should drop closer to average behind the frontal passage.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Expect an ESE flow around 10 kts however, gusts of around 20kts
could pick up as early as 15Z for most sites. Rain chances remain
low for today, but a pop up shower along the coast can not be ruled
out, however they have been kept out of the TAFs for now.

MARINE...
Periods of exercise caution could be possible as the strong ESE flow
begins gusting over 20kts. Winds will begin to shift more S then SW
around 17Z and diminish overnight.

FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances remain low today into tomorrow, but RH values remain
above critical levels. Locally high dispersions expected today and
Thursday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  77  92  77 /  10  20  20  30
FMY  94  74  94  74 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  93  74  93  74 /  10  10  30  20
SRQ  91  73  90  74 /  10  20  20  30
BKV  93  70  93  70 /  10  10  20  30
SPG  89  77  89  77 /  10  20  20  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 7
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 7

For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to
https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis