Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 161809 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 209 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 .DISCUSSION... High pressure remains in control across the FL peninsula with the center of the ridge axis situated to the north, and the upper-level ridge back to the west over the Central CONUS. With the anticyclonic (clockwise) flow around the high, breezy ENE winds are continuing across the peninsula today. There`s a tad bit more moisture present, leading to some additional cumulus clouds this afternoon, but the atmosphere is still rather dry and stable, suppressing any storm development. This is despite growing rather warm this afternoon. The warm air is also attempting to, rather unsuccessfully, develop a seabreeze. However, this extra resistance is working to hold the easterly flow back, favoring gustier winds through the first half of the night as this resistance goes away. The same pattern will repeat for the next several days, with subtle variations. Winds will decrease some as the pressure gradient relaxes, but faster winds should still be expected each evening. Rain chances remain low with strong subsidence and limited moisture. However, some additional moisture advection will take place as winds shift more easterly, but this will only lead to slim chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms later this week. Otherwise, conditions look to slowly warm and remain mostly dry for the next seven days. && .AVIATION... Winds are beginning to become briefly more light and variable at northern coastal sites as a seabreeze attempts to develop. However, generally ENE flow is likely to prevail through the day with VFR conditions. An increase in winds is likely during the first part of the night as the resistance created by this developing seabreeze begins to wane. Once the initial surge passes, winds lighten before a similar pattern, albeit a bit weaker, repeats tomorrow. && .MARINE... Despite generally lighter and more pleasant boating conditions this afternoon, an easterly surge of wind is expected to bring boating conditions up to advisory levels once again tonight for a few hours. Once this passes, winds should subside again and will trend lighter towards morning. The same pattern, likely a bit weaker, is expected to repeat each day through the next several days. Winds will approach cautionary/advisory levels each evening before weakening during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Observations and forecast from across the area show RH values reaching critical thresholds in many spots this afternoon. ERC values are also exceeding the criteria needed for a red flag warning. However, 20ft winds do not support red flag conditions at this time, and are expected to remain below critical levels during the period of critical RH values. No red flag warning is anticipated for the afternoon, but conditions will be monitored. Additionally, high dispersions are expected today and likely over the next few days. Fire weather concerns decrease as RH values begin to recover later this week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 88 67 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 89 67 91 68 / 10 0 0 0 GIF 86 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 88 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 87 58 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 86 71 88 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Monday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Flannery

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