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000
FXUS62 KTBW 180810
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
410 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today-Friday)...
Mid/upper level ridging will remain over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida while a weakening cool front settles into the region and
stalls out across central Florida Friday. This boundary will bring
some more clouds and the chance of a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm to mainly areas from around the Interstate 4 corridor
northward today and Friday. Otherwise, it will remain rather warm
and humid with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower
90s each day, but the additional clouds over northern portions of
the Nature Coast could hold highs in the mid 80s on Friday. Lows
tonight will remain mostly in the 70s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday Night-Wednesday)...
Through Sun: Mid level ridging initially across the Gulf region is
shunted southward as a mid level trough in the Upper Midwest
swings across the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern states then
offshore. On the surface: High pressure across the area gives way
to a cold front moving south as high pressure tracks from the
mid-Mississippi Valley to the eastern seaboard. The GFS solution
stalls the front in central FL Sun night while the ECMWF pushes
the front into south FL before stalling it. Slightly drier and
cooler air works in behind the front.

Mon-Wed: Mid-level ridging lifts back north as a weak shortwave
trough tracks along the Gulf coast and through northern FL Tue and
Wed. The front meanders nearly in place and becomes diffuse, more
so with the ECMWF, Mon then eases northward through Wed short.
This will spread moisture and warmer temperatures back across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop during the mid to late
morning hours today as daytime heating gets underway, otherwise
mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. East winds
will increase to 7 to 11 knots with a few higher gusts this
morning into early afternoon and shift to northeast to north near
the coast late in the afternoon. A couple of showers will also be
possible late this afternoon over southwest Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
East to northeast flow will persist through Friday with the sea
breeze trying to develop near the coast shifting winds to a more
northerly direction each afternoon. Wind speeds will generally
remain less than 15 knots, except increasing to near cautionary
levels tonight. Over the weekend the flow will shift from south to
southwest Saturday to northeasterly Sunday as a cool front moves
across the waters. Wind speeds will remain less than 15 knots
Saturday then increase to cautionary levels Sunday, and possibly
advisory criteria for a few hours Sunday night. A lighter easterly
flow will then return early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns, as relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels through the period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  75  91  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  92  73  92  72 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  92  72  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
SRQ  93  73  91  74 /  10  10  10  10
BKV  92  71  90  69 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  91  77  91  77 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude