Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 180748 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 348 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 .SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)... Upper level ridging will remain over the southeastern U.S. and Florida through the period. At the surface high pressure from offshore the southeast U.S. coast and extending southwest across the north-central peninsula today will sink south to lie across the central peninsula on Tuesday. The surface high will maintain a light northeast to east wind flow over the region today then becoming east southeast on Tuesday with an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast each afternoon. Ample moisture (PW`s in the 1.8 to 2 inch range) combined with daytime heating will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over inland locations by early afternoon today with a northeast to east steering flow then pushing the convection toward the coast during mid to late afternoon and where the best coverage of storms and highest rain chances are expected to reside through the early evening hours. Storms that develop today will be capable of producing locally heavy rains, frequent lightning strikes, and strong gusty winds. Tonight the showers and storms will gradually end or move west into the Gulf waters by mid evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies expected overnight. On Tuesday high pressure will remain in control with a light east southeast wind flow giving way to an onshore sea breeze component developing along the coast in the afternoon. Despite the sea breeze though lower rain chances are expected area wide as drier mid level air advects into the region from the Atlantic and subsidence increases some under the upper level ridge which will keep shower and storm coverage in the isolated range (Pops 20 percent) during the afternoon and early evening hours. It will warm and muggy through the period with temperatures running above normal with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s over inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the coast, with daytime highs today and again on Tuesday climbing to around 90 along the coast, and lower to mid 90s inland. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Sunday)... Broad mid-level ridging centered over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week will slowly shift east through the second half of the week as a broad trough swings through the northeastern CONUS. At the surface, the sub tropical ridge of high pressure will hold across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, keeping the low level flow weak. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing through the afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior. On Thursday, the surface ridge will sink south as a weak surface boundary that is associated with the mid-level trough pushes into northern Florida. Deep moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will allow for chances of rain over the Nature Coast throughout the morning, while a return of westerly flow across the rest of the area will mean early afternoon thunderstorms will mostly shift into eastern Florida by the early evening hours. Friday through Sunday, the surface boundary will gradually wash out across the Florida Peninsula, resulting in increased moisture and more numerous thunderstorm chances each afternoon. The westerly flow will continue Friday and Saturday, helping to generally clear out the west coast by mid to late afternoon. Sunday, the surface ridge will be lifting back north into the Florida Peninsula, easing up on the westerly flow and keeping the storm coverage more spread out across the area. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal through the period, with highs around 90 along the coast and in the low to mid 90s inland. Morning lows will run from the low to mid 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. && .AVIATION... Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at the Taf sites after 19Z as shra/tsra develop over the region and have handled with VCTS for now. Outside of the convection VFR will prevail during the next 24 hours. Northeast to east wind in the 4 to 6 knot range will prevail, except becoming onshore at the coastal sites after 19Z as the sea breeze component develops with higher wind gusts in the vicinity of tsra. Light east winds can be expected at all terminals after 02Z tonight. && .MARINE... High pressure across the north-central waters today will sink south through the week and will lie across the southern waters by weeks end. A light northeast to easterly wind flow is expected across the waters today, becoming east-southeast Tuesday and Wednesday as the high sinks further south with a weak pressure pattern supporting an onshore see breeze component along the coast each afternoon. During Thursday and Friday a weakening frontal trough will move into and stall out across the northern peninsula and northern Gulf waters as the surface ridge axis sets up across the southern peninsula with a light southwest to westerly wind flow expected over the waters. Wind and seas will be higher near scattered thunderstorms each day, otherwise no headlines are expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Ample moisture will keep humidity values well above critical levels through the week with no fire weather issues expected. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 93 78 92 78 / 40 20 20 20 FMY 93 76 94 75 / 40 40 20 20 GIF 93 74 94 74 / 30 10 10 10 SRQ 92 78 91 78 / 40 30 20 20 BKV 93 74 94 74 / 30 20 20 20 SPG 91 80 91 79 / 40 20 20 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming

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