Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 240758 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 258 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 Cold front extended from near Punta Gorda to Cape Canaveral with low clouds, patchy fog, and patchy drizzle behind it. IR satellite loop showed sharp upper level trough in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. .SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
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Models forecast upper level trough west of area to slowly fill through the period. Deep layer dry air will over spread the area with clouds breaking this afternoon. Expect cool temperatures today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight low temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tonight, ranging from 48 in Williston to 60 in Fort Myers. Saturday will be mostly sunny with light winds and highs a few degrees warmer in the 70s. .MID-LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)... Longwave trough down the eastern seaboard to move into the W Atlantic Sunday leaving short wave troughiness over the Deep South and Gulf region through early next week then next upper low/trough moves out of the Desert SW east-northeastward mid week. Stronger reinforcing surface Canadian high pressure builds into the region Sunday bringing dry and cooler airmass to the area into Monday with temps near seasonal averages through Monday which should feel fairly pleasant. The high pressure center moves along the Mid Atlantic states Tues then into the W Atlantic Wed/Thu. Low level flow to veer easterly with surface humidities moderating and temps increasing back to above normal.
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&& .AVIATION...
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Weak cold from from KPGD to the Space Coast with IFR CIGS behind it. Front will slowly move south today. Radar showed showers moving into southwest Florida and patchy drizzle in KTPA area. Visibility forecast to be tricky through 15Z, then conditions improve to VFR around 17-19Z. Clear skies and patchy fog expected later Friday night.
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&& .MARINE...
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A cold front will moving slowly south through Punta Gorda this morning. Will issue a Small Craft Exercise Caution for coastal waters offshore of Tampa Bay and northward for this morning. Buoy 42036 110 miles WNW Tampa reported north winds 16g19kts with seas at 5 ft. Winds will slack off as the center of high pressure moves closer to the area. A second cold front will move through Saturday night but it will be weak and dry. Winds and seas below advisory criteria through Tuesday.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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High humidity levels will preclude any fire weather concerns through the period.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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TPA 72 59 74 59 / 10 0 0 10 FMY 76 60 77 59 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 70 55 75 55 / 30 0 0 0 SRQ 71 58 73 58 / 10 0 0 10 BKV 70 51 74 52 / 10 0 0 0 SPG 71 59 73 60 / 10 0 0 10
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&& .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...72/Noah MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis

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