


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --763 FXUS62 KTBW 130034 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 834 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 832 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Other than some light echoes remaining on radar in interior areas, the majority of west central and southwest Florida is mainly rain-free at this time and any of the lingering precipitation will taper off over the next hour or so. Overall the ongoing forecast covers these radar trends well so no forecast changes are needed at this time and a warm and humid night is ahead with some coastal areas possibly not dropping below 80, though most areas will be in the upper 70s near the coast and mid 70s inland.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Weak high pressure in place across the region with weak flow throughout much of the atmosphere. The main area of showers/storms earlier this morning into early this afternoon has been across Manatee and Sarasota counties and moved further inland. Expect these showers and storms will continue to drift inland with best chances for showers/storms throughout the remainder of the day across the interior. PW values vary from > 2 inches from generally I-4 southward with lower values to the north. Due to this, continue with best chances for precipitation this afternoon and evening to the south of I-4. Any ongoing convection should come to an end near sunset. PW values over 2 inches become more common going into Sunday and by Monday PW values will be closer to 2.25 inches. These PW values are above the 95th percentile for mid July. Due to this PoPs continue to be on the high side on Sunday and into Monday with best PoPs across the interior. Highest PoPs on Sunday will be around 70% increasing to near 90% on Monday. The ridge will breakdown during this timeframe with an upper low approaching from the east. With elevated PW values and weak synoptic lift, WPC has placed the area in a slight risk (2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday. Localized flooding could become an issue on Monday, especially in low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage. This upper level low drifts to the west throughout the week and models depict a potential weak surface low. PW values will also remain elevated throughout much of the week. Due to these factors, PoPs will remain elevated throughout much of the upcoming work week. With the higher PoPs, temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. The threat for localized flooding may also persist throughout much of the upcoming week. The pattern looks to shift back to more of a typical summer time pattern late in the week with more typical seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 750 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours with light/VRB winds overnight. Surface winds will be mainly W-NW on Sunday at 5-10 kts with mostly VFR conditions throughout the day, though scattered TSRA will develop by Sunday afternoon and evening so occasional flight restrictions may occur, especially during periods of heavier precipitation. && .MARINE... Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through tomorrow. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected over the waters next week. Winds and seas will remain below cautionary levels through the period. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 No fire weather concerns are expected at this time. Moisture will increase with best chances for widespread showers and storms on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 80 92 80 92 / 10 50 30 70 FMY 77 93 77 90 / 30 70 40 80 GIF 77 94 77 93 / 20 70 40 80 SRQ 78 92 78 92 / 20 40 30 60 BKV 74 93 75 92 / 10 70 30 70 SPG 80 90 79 89 / 10 50 30 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis