Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 180810 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 410 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 .SHORT TERM (Today-Friday)... Mid/upper level ridging will remain over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida while a weakening cool front settles into the region and stalls out across central Florida Friday. This boundary will bring some more clouds and the chance of a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm to mainly areas from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward today and Friday. Otherwise, it will remain rather warm and humid with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s each day, but the additional clouds over northern portions of the Nature Coast could hold highs in the mid 80s on Friday. Lows tonight will remain mostly in the 70s. .MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday Night-Wednesday)... Through Sun: Mid level ridging initially across the Gulf region is shunted southward as a mid level trough in the Upper Midwest swings across the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern states then offshore. On the surface: High pressure across the area gives way to a cold front moving south as high pressure tracks from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the eastern seaboard. The GFS solution stalls the front in central FL Sun night while the ECMWF pushes the front into south FL before stalling it. Slightly drier and cooler air works in behind the front. Mon-Wed: Mid-level ridging lifts back north as a weak shortwave trough tracks along the Gulf coast and through northern FL Tue and Wed. The front meanders nearly in place and becomes diffuse, more so with the ECMWF, Mon then eases northward through Wed short. This will spread moisture and warmer temperatures back across the area. && .AVIATION... Some areas of MVFR ceilings could develop during the mid to late morning hours today as daytime heating gets underway, otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period. East winds will increase to 7 to 11 knots with a few higher gusts this morning into early afternoon and shift to northeast to north near the coast late in the afternoon. A couple of showers will also be possible late this afternoon over southwest Florida. && .MARINE... East to northeast flow will persist through Friday with the sea breeze trying to develop near the coast shifting winds to a more northerly direction each afternoon. Wind speeds will generally remain less than 15 knots, except increasing to near cautionary levels tonight. Over the weekend the flow will shift from south to southwest Saturday to northeasterly Sunday as a cool front moves across the waters. Wind speeds will remain less than 15 knots Saturday then increase to cautionary levels Sunday, and possibly advisory criteria for a few hours Sunday night. A lighter easterly flow will then return early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... No concerns, as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels through the period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 92 75 91 74 / 10 10 20 10 FMY 92 73 92 72 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 92 72 91 72 / 10 10 20 20 SRQ 93 73 91 74 / 10 10 10 10 BKV 92 71 90 69 / 30 20 20 20 SPG 91 77 91 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude

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