Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 110827 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 327 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 .DISCUSSION... Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a band of moisture north of the Florida Peninsula associated with an approaching cold front. Ample low level moisture to the south of this boundary is leading to some patchy fog and low status this morning, which will gradually lift out through the morning. A dense fog advisory has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties through 9 AM, but may need to be expanded if the area of dense fog expands. As the front slowly sags south into the forecast area today, isolated to scattered showers will be possible, with winds increasing and turning to northeasterly along and behind the front. The front will stall out across central Florida through Thursday and slowly lift north Friday, with periods of showers continuing. Because the front will not cleanly push through the entire area, generally only the Nature Coast will see a minor cool down, with temperatures near to slightly above normal, and temperatures remaining well above normal from the Tampa Bay area south. A weak area of low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and lift northeast through northern Florida on Friday. Since this system is forecast to remain weak, it is not expected to bring gusty winds but it will result in more numerous showers Friday and Friday night, mainly over the Nature Coast and adjacent Gulf waters. The low will drag a weak cold front behind it through the area by late Saturday, clearing out the rain chances by Saturday evening and bringing in cooler weather across the area through Sunday evening, although temperatures will remain near to a few degrees above normal. High pressure will then fill in behind the front, with temperatures quickly warming back up Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... Patchy fog and low stratus will continue to develop through just after sunrise this morning, with extended periods of MVFR-LIFR conditions expected through at least 14z. The MVFR ceilings will then likely linger through the rest of the morning. Even as ceilings lift out, isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out at any time after sunrise, and could cause brief periods of reduced flight categories. Another round of MVFR or lower ceilings will develop after around 00-02z this evening. && .MARINE... A weak cold front will push south into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and linger through Thursday, bringing chances for showers. Some patchy sea fog is possible through this morning on the south side of the frontal boundary, although widespread dense fog is not expected. Wind speeds will increase behind the front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for the offshore waters north of Englewood this afternoon through Thursday morning, and cautionary conditions expected for the other Gulf zones. Winds will subside late Thursday through the upcoming weekend as a weak area of low pressure develops over the northern Gulf and lifts northeast through Florida, bringing increased chances for showers through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Patchy fog will lift out by mid morning. Relative humidity is not expected to drop to critical levels through the next several days. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 78 62 78 65 / 30 10 10 20 FMY 83 67 81 66 / 40 30 20 0 GIF 80 63 78 65 / 40 20 30 10 SRQ 81 63 81 65 / 30 10 10 10 BKV 78 58 77 62 / 30 10 10 20 SPG 79 62 78 66 / 30 10 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Thursday for Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Fleming

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