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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KTBW 231854
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
254 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Monday)...
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High pressure will extend from the Atlantic across southern
Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico through the period.
This will keep mainly SW flow in place across the area,
becoming light and variable overnight. Some drier air will
move into the area Monday and lower rain chances slightly
across the southern zones. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters and along the coast
overnight through the morning hours Monday will shift inland
through the afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the upper
70s to near 80 along the coast, and in the mid 70s inland.
Highs Monday in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM (Monday night-Sunday)...
A strong subtropical U/L ridge over the western Atlantic
will extend across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday. A weak U/L trough will sink over the southeast U.S.
and Florida on Wednesday, but will lift north of the region
Thursday as the U/L ridge builds back over the forecast
area. A strong U/L disturbance will dig through the Ohio
River Valley Friday night with an U/L trough digging over
the eastern U.S. through the weekend, extending over
portions of the Florida peninsula. Uncertainty in long range
as differences between GFS/ECMWF. Leaning toward ECMWF
solution as GFS appears to be a bit too amplified.

At the surface, high pressure ridge axis will extend across
south central Florida Wednesday and Thursday with weak
onshore west to southwest flow each day. The ridge axis will
sink south across the Florida straits Friday through the
weekend with continued onshore boundary layer flow. This
pattern favors scattered late night/early morning
showers/thunderstorms to develop over the coastal waters
advecting locally onshore during the morning, spreading
inland during the afternoon. Drier air aloft is expected to
advect over the region Wednesday through Friday and will
likely decrease areal coverage of thunderstorms, but the
drier air aloft will also enhance the risk for downburst
winds with a few stronger storms. Deep layer moisture will
gradually increase over the weekend with slightly higher
POPs each day. The persistent onshore flow will create very
warm muggy overnight conditions...especially near the coast,
with highest daytime temperatures over the interior.
Overall, temperatures are expected to run a few degrees
above normal each day.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push inland and
subside by 01z, with winds becoming light and variable and
skies scattering out. Thunderstorms return early morning for
the coastal terminals, with winds increasing from the SW
after 15z.
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&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure will ridge across south Florida through
Monday, then it will meander a bit north across central FL
through mid-week. Winds will remain mainly SW for much of
the area, except some SE flow across the southern waters as
the ridge axis lifts north. This will keep scattered
thunderstorms in the forecast each day mainly in the
overnight through morning hours. Wind speeds and seas will
remain light through the period except in the vicinity of
the scattered storms.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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No concerns.
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&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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TPA  77  89  79  92 /  30  30  10  20
FMY  76  93  77  93 /  10  20  20  30
GIF  74  92  76  95 /  10  30  20  30
SRQ  75  89  78  91 /  30  30  10  20
BKV  73  90  75  92 /  30  40  10  30
SPG  79  89  80  91 /  40  30  10  20
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&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby