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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KTBW 161300
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
900 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Quiet morning across the region with just a few high clouds here
and there. Morning TBW sounding indicating deep easterly flow just
off the surface with precipitable water near 1.8 inches. There is
a pocket of drier air across southwest Florida which could delay
the development of clouds here this morning, but during the
afternoon and evening the deeper moisture will return to the
entire region. This moisture combined with daytime heating and the
sea breezes will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms
moving westward this afternoon and evening. The majority of the
convection will develop late in the afternoon and early evening as
the east coast sea breeze moves westward, but we will see isolated
showers and thunderstorms pop up along the west coast sea breeze
as in pushes inland during the early and mid afternoon hours.
Overall the current forecast looks on track with no major changes
needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected into Wednesday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions at the terminals along
with brief gusty winds. For now left VCTS as confidence in extent
and timing not high enough to include Tempo groups yet. East to
southeast winds at 5 to 9 knots are expected today with a shift
to onshore as the bay/sea breeze develops at all terminals except
LAL this afternoon, then light easterly winds for tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will provide light winds and slight seas
through the week with a shift to onshore each afternoon as the
sea breeze develops. Isolated to scattered convection will be
possible, especially during the nighttime and early morning hours.


&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 249 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019/

DISCUSSION (Today - Monday)...
Upper-level ridging over Florida will remain in place through
Wednesday, then begin to build northward through the weekend. In
fact, global models are in very good agreement showing a strong
upper-level ridge dominating the eastern U.S. this weekend. This
will bring hot and humid conditions to just about the entire
eastern seaboard. An upper-level trough may dig far enough south
to at least weaken the upper ridge on Monday.

For our region, the position of the subtropical ridge will be the
primary driving force in our day-to-day thunderstorm coverage and
location. Other than minor fluctuations north to south, the ridge
axis should generally set up over central Florida, which will
allow afternoon sea breezes to push steadily inland from the Tampa
Bay area north. Sea breezes south of Tampa Bay will have a
tougher time pushing inland against the predominant easterly flow
south of the ridge axis. Any lingering storms each evening will be
steered by cold pools left over from earlier storms. In the end,
just about anyone could see rain on any given day.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  78 /  40  20  50  20
FMY  94  77  93  77 /  60  20  50  20
GIF  95  77  95  76 /  40  20  50  10
SRQ  92  77  91  77 /  40  20  40  20
BKV  95  74  94  74 /  40  20  50  20
SPG  93  80  92  79 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Close
PREV DISCUSSION...Jillson
UPPER AIR...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard