Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 250005 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 705 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021 .UPDATE... Despite a relatively warm day, we saw dewpoints cooperate across the northern half of the CWA as surface high pressure over the NE Gulf has kept us slightly drier air courtesy of a light northwest/north wind. Overnight PWAT values are expected to flirt with 0.30 inches which suggests a very dry atmosphere will be in place. Due to the dry airmass, clear skies, and calm winds (especially across the Nature Coast), have opted to nudge low temps several degrees cooler to align closer to MOS guidance as all these things indicate a strong radiational cooling night. Thinking low/mid 40s across much of the Nature Coast and low/mid 50s across the I-4 corridor. RAP forecast soundings at KCTY and KINF shows a saturated and decoupled boundary layer due to the aforementioned cooling. With the added support from hi-res visibility models, went ahead and included Areas of overnight fog for parts of the Nature Coast. Much farther south, favorable conditions over Miami`s area may bleed into some of our neighboring counties - so some patchy wording was also introduced into these areas. However, certainty here is much lower than the Nature Coast due to less low level moisture. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions through the period with perhaps some FEW/SCT clouds near 030 during late morning into early afternoon across northern sites. Otherwise, the forecast consists mainly of subtle wind shifts between NNE and NW. These winds will generally remain AOB 8 knots. && .MARINE... High pressure over the area will keep warm, dry, and otherwise very pleasant boating conditions for the next several days. Strengthening surface high over the Atlantic will lead to an increase in southeasterly winds by the weekend. However, these winds are still expected to remain just below cautionary headline thresholds, so no hazards are anticipated into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico is helping to filter in some drier air into the area through tomorrow. Strong daytime mixing will result in relative humidity levels dipping below critical values during the afternoon, especially south of I-4 and east of I-75. While ERCs will also be elevated across the area, a lack of strong wind speeds will preclude the issuance of Red Flag Warnings. Moisture increases beginning on Friday and continuing into the weekend with no major fire weather concerns expected. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 55 79 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 59 83 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 54 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 54 79 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 42 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 61 76 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...42/Norman UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard

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