Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 231854 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 254 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight-Monday)...
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High pressure will extend from the Atlantic across southern Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico through the period. This will keep mainly SW flow in place across the area, becoming light and variable overnight. Some drier air will move into the area Monday and lower rain chances slightly across the southern zones. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters and along the coast overnight through the morning hours Monday will shift inland through the afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast, and in the mid 70s inland. Highs Monday in the mid 80s to lower 90s. .LONG TERM (Monday night-Sunday)... A strong subtropical U/L ridge over the western Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico Tuesday. A weak U/L trough will sink over the southeast U.S. and Florida on Wednesday, but will lift north of the region Thursday as the U/L ridge builds back over the forecast area. A strong U/L disturbance will dig through the Ohio River Valley Friday night with an U/L trough digging over the eastern U.S. through the weekend, extending over portions of the Florida peninsula. Uncertainty in long range as differences between GFS/ECMWF. Leaning toward ECMWF solution as GFS appears to be a bit too amplified. At the surface, high pressure ridge axis will extend across south central Florida Wednesday and Thursday with weak onshore west to southwest flow each day. The ridge axis will sink south across the Florida straits Friday through the weekend with continued onshore boundary layer flow. This pattern favors scattered late night/early morning showers/thunderstorms to develop over the coastal waters advecting locally onshore during the morning, spreading inland during the afternoon. Drier air aloft is expected to advect over the region Wednesday through Friday and will likely decrease areal coverage of thunderstorms, but the drier air aloft will also enhance the risk for downburst winds with a few stronger storms. Deep layer moisture will gradually increase over the weekend with slightly higher POPs each day. The persistent onshore flow will create very warm muggy overnight conditions...especially near the coast, with highest daytime temperatures over the interior. Overall, temperatures are expected to run a few degrees above normal each day.
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&& .AVIATION...
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Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push inland and subside by 01z, with winds becoming light and variable and skies scattering out. Thunderstorms return early morning for the coastal terminals, with winds increasing from the SW after 15z.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure will ridge across south Florida through Monday, then it will meander a bit north across central FL through mid-week. Winds will remain mainly SW for much of the area, except some SE flow across the southern waters as the ridge axis lifts north. This will keep scattered thunderstorms in the forecast each day mainly in the overnight through morning hours. Wind speeds and seas will remain light through the period except in the vicinity of the scattered storms.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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No concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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TPA 77 89 79 92 / 30 30 10 20 FMY 76 93 77 93 / 10 20 20 30 GIF 74 92 76 95 / 10 30 20 30 SRQ 75 89 78 91 / 30 30 10 20 BKV 73 90 75 92 / 30 40 10 30 SPG 79 89 80 91 / 40 30 10 20
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&& .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/Oglesby

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