Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 251158 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 758 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022 .AVIATION...
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VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Light ESE winds around 5-8 knots expected this morning, then increasing WSW around 10-15 knots with higher gusts during the afternoon. Rain chances will remain on the low side today, so will leave out any mention of weather for now.
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/issued 329 AM EDT Wed May 25 2022/ DISCUSSION... Wed: Weather pattern similar to past couple days. Subsidence caused by the upper level ridging and a surface high pressure system located near the Bahamas has aided in keeping rain chances low. A strong Southeast flow continues to dominate throughout the day and may become gusty in after 15Z for most areas. Coastal areas will have the seabreeze influence late in the afternoon allowing for a more southwesterly flow before turning back to east southeast early Thursday morning. Thurs-Sun: The current pattern begins to shift later this week as the low pressure system that is developing over the central U.S begins to trek east. A frontal system associated with the low will bring an increase in rain chances. The models now seem to be in more agreement with timing and best rain chances seem to be Friday. The frontal should be out of the area by Sunday and high pressure will once again settle in. Resuming our east southeast breeze pattern with afternoon convection possible along the seabreeze convergence. Temperatures will remain above average but should drop closer to average behind the frontal passage. AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period. Expect an ESE flow around 10 kts however, gusts of around 20kts could pick up as early as 15Z for most sites. Rain chances remain low for today, but a pop up shower along the coast can not be ruled out, however they have been kept out of the TAFs for now. MARINE... Periods of exercise caution could be possible as the strong ESE flow begins gusting over 20kts. Winds will begin to shift more S then SW around 17Z and diminish overnight. FIRE WEATHER... Rain chances remain low today into tomorrow, but RH values remain above critical levels. Locally high dispersions expected today and Thursday afternoon.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 93 77 92 77 / 10 20 20 30 FMY 94 74 94 74 / 20 10 30 20 GIF 93 74 93 74 / 10 10 30 20 SRQ 91 73 90 74 / 10 20 20 30 BKV 93 70 93 70 / 10 10 20 30 SPG 89 77 89 77 / 10 20 20 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Today: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tomorrow: 7 For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...74/Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...25/Davis

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