Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 201825 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 225 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 .DISCUSSION...
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A mid-level ridge is over the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon with weak troughing east of Florida, and this pattern is keeping a northwest flow aloft over the local area. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the western Gulf of Mexico. As we head through tonight and Sunday, flow aloft becomes more west to southwest as some shortwave energy moves across the northern Gulf coast and a surface boundary moves into north Florida. Most of the forecast area will remain warm and dry through the day, but we do start to see some increasing rain chances later in the afternoon for our far northern zones. The boundary makes slow progress southward Sunday night into Monday, with increasing rain chances north to south. A few storms will also be possible, and a strong one or two cannot be completely ruled out, and the Storm Prediction Center does keep much of the area within a marginal risk for severe weather. High pressure moves over the southeast behind the boundary for Tuesday, with the most noticeable difference for us being some lower dew points (50s area-wide). We quickly moderate for Wednesday and Thursday and really toward the weekend, with humidity and temperatures increasing by a few degrees each day.
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. The only exception would be some patchy fog tonight, though confidence is not high enough in impact for the TAF sites at this time.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic for the next couple of days, with light winds becoming west to southwest in the afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Sunday night through Monday, with a chance for showers and a few storms. Winds quickly turn northerly on Monday and then northeast through the middle part of the week. Overall, no headlines are expected, though winds could briefly near exercise caution levels behind the boundary.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. A cold front will move through the area Sunday night into Monday, with drier air moving into the region for mid-week.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA 70 84 71 79 / 0 10 30 40 FMY 70 87 71 85 / 0 0 0 30 GIF 67 89 68 82 / 0 10 30 60 SRQ 67 85 70 82 / 0 0 20 40 BKV 61 85 63 79 / 0 10 40 40 SPG 72 82 72 79 / 0 0 30 40
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&& .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle

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