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000
FXUS62 KTBW 161809
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
209 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains in control across the FL peninsula with the
center of the ridge axis situated to the north, and the upper-level
ridge back to the west over the Central CONUS. With the
anticyclonic (clockwise) flow around the high, breezy ENE winds
are continuing across the peninsula today. There`s a tad bit more
moisture present, leading to some additional cumulus clouds this
afternoon, but the atmosphere is still rather dry and stable,
suppressing any storm development. This is despite growing rather
warm this afternoon. The warm air is also attempting to, rather
unsuccessfully, develop a seabreeze. However, this extra
resistance is working to hold the easterly flow back, favoring
gustier winds through the first half of the night as this
resistance goes away.

The same pattern will repeat for the next several days, with subtle
variations. Winds will decrease some as the pressure gradient
relaxes, but faster winds should still be expected each evening.
Rain chances remain low with strong subsidence and limited
moisture. However, some additional moisture advection will take
place as winds shift more easterly, but this will only lead to
slim chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms later this
week. Otherwise, conditions look to slowly warm and remain mostly
dry for the next seven days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds are beginning to become briefly more light and variable at
northern coastal sites as a seabreeze attempts to develop.
However, generally ENE flow is likely to prevail through the day
with VFR conditions. An increase in winds is likely during the
first part of the night as the resistance created by this
developing seabreeze begins to wane. Once the initial surge
passes, winds lighten before a similar pattern, albeit a bit
weaker, repeats tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Despite generally lighter and more pleasant boating conditions this
afternoon, an easterly surge of wind is expected to bring boating
conditions up to advisory levels once again tonight for a few hours.
Once this passes, winds should subside again and will trend lighter
towards morning. The same pattern, likely a bit weaker, is expected
to repeat each day through the next several days. Winds will
approach cautionary/advisory levels each evening before weakening
during the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Observations and forecast from across the area show RH values
reaching critical thresholds in many spots this afternoon. ERC
values are also exceeding the criteria needed for a red flag
warning. However, 20ft winds do not support red flag conditions at
this time, and are expected to remain below critical levels during
the period of critical RH values. No red flag warning is
anticipated for the afternoon, but conditions will be monitored.
Additionally, high dispersions are expected today and likely over
the next few days. Fire weather concerns decrease as RH values
begin to recover later this week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  67  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  89  67  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  86  64  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  88  65  89  67 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  87  58  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  86  71  88  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Monday
     for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Flannery