Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 180802 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 402 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 .DISCUSSION... Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will lift NE across the Gulf of Mexico towards the Florida Panhandle through early Saturday, with rain and winds from the system impacting the area through the weekend. Tropical Storm Warning will continue for coastal Levy county and the northern coastal waters, with a Storm Surge Warning in place from Clearwater Beach north. Have also added a Small Craft Advisory, effective at 20z/4PM, for the rest of the coastal waters as winds and seas will be increasing through the day. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf will likely be needed for the coast for Saturday. Categorical rain chances are in place across much of the area as this passes through and lifts off to the NE Saturday, with cooler and drier air moving in behind it as high pressure builds into the area Sunday and Monday. A cold front will then push into the area Tuesday and stall out bringing some scattered rain chances. The boundary washes out as high pressure shifts east to the north of the area and easterly flow returns for Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front will then be approaching the area for Friday and turn winds to the south. Highs will generally be in the 80s except this afternoon, mid to upper 70s possible across the Nature Coast. Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s through Tuesday, then falling into the upper 50s to lower 70s possible mid week before moderating back into the mid 60s to 70s by the end of the period. && .AVIATION... VFR will prevail at all terminals through mid morning. By late morning and into the afternoon showers and isolated storms will move onshore from the Gulf and increase in coverage across the region with MVFR/IFR conditions possible especially from KSRQ north to KTPA, KPIE, and KLAL terminals after 18Z with these conditions then spreading south to the southern terminals after 22Z. Light/variable winds early this morning will become southeast and gusty by mid afternoon and continuing into tonight. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will be on the increase today, with the Tropical Storm warning continuing for the northern waters, and then an SCA going into effect for the rest of the waters starting this afternoon and continuing through Saturday night. Once the tropical system lifts out to the NE and merges with the upper trough, high pressure will build over the waters Sunday with winds and seas gradually subsiding below advisory levels. High pressure will then be in place through the end of the period with a cold front approaching the waters Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Some strong winds with the tropical system through Saturday, but no other concerns through the period with plenty of moisture and rain in place. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 80 74 84 74 / 80 80 80 30 FMY 87 76 85 76 / 60 50 70 30 GIF 81 73 84 73 / 60 80 80 30 SRQ 83 75 86 75 / 80 80 80 40 BKV 79 70 85 71 / 70 80 80 30 SPG 80 76 85 77 / 80 80 80 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Levy. Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard AVIATION/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael

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