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000
FXUS62 KTBW 180748
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
348 AM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)...
Upper level ridging will remain over the southeastern U.S.
and Florida through the period. At the surface high pressure
from offshore the southeast U.S. coast and extending
southwest across the north-central peninsula today will sink
south to lie across the central peninsula on Tuesday. The
surface high will maintain a light northeast to east wind
flow over the region today then becoming east southeast on
Tuesday with an onshore sea breeze component developing
along the coast each afternoon. Ample moisture (PW`s in the
1.8 to 2 inch range) combined with daytime heating will
allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over
inland locations by early afternoon today with a northeast
to east steering flow then pushing the convection toward the
coast during mid to late afternoon and where the best
coverage of storms and highest rain chances are expected to
reside through the early evening hours. Storms that develop
today will be capable of producing locally heavy rains,
frequent lightning strikes, and strong gusty winds.

Tonight the showers and storms will gradually end or move
west into the Gulf waters by mid evening with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected overnight.

On Tuesday high pressure will remain in control with a light
east southeast wind flow giving way to an onshore sea
breeze component developing along the coast in the
afternoon. Despite the sea breeze though lower rain chances
are expected area wide as drier mid level air advects into
the region from the Atlantic and subsidence increases some
under the upper level ridge which will keep shower and storm
coverage in the isolated range (Pops 20 percent) during the
afternoon and early evening hours.

It will warm and muggy through the period with temperatures
running above normal with overnight lows in the lower to mid
70s over inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the
coast, with daytime highs today and again on Tuesday
climbing to around 90 along the coast, and lower to mid 90s
inland.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night - Sunday)...
Broad mid-level ridging centered over Florida and the
eastern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of the week will
slowly shift east through the second half of the week as a
broad trough swings through the northeastern CONUS. At the
surface, the sub tropical ridge of high pressure will hold
across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, keeping the low
level flow weak. This will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorms developing through the afternoon, with the
highest chances over the interior. On Thursday, the surface
ridge will sink south as a weak surface boundary that is
associated with the mid-level trough pushes into northern
Florida. Deep moisture pooling ahead of this boundary will
allow for chances of rain over the Nature Coast throughout
the morning, while a return of westerly flow across the rest
of the area will mean early afternoon thunderstorms will
mostly shift into eastern Florida by the early evening
hours.

Friday through Sunday, the surface boundary will gradually
wash out across the Florida Peninsula, resulting in
increased moisture and more numerous thunderstorm chances
each afternoon. The westerly flow will continue Friday and
Saturday, helping to generally clear out the west coast by
mid to late afternoon. Sunday, the surface ridge will be
lifting back north into the Florida Peninsula, easing up on
the westerly flow and keeping the storm coverage more spread
out across the area.

Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal through the
period, with highs around 90 along the coast and in the
low to mid 90s inland. Morning lows will run from the low to
mid 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at the Taf sites
after 19Z as shra/tsra develop over the region and have
handled with VCTS for now. Outside of the convection VFR
will prevail during the next 24 hours. Northeast to east
wind in the 4 to 6 knot range will prevail, except becoming
onshore at the coastal sites after 19Z as the sea breeze
component develops with higher wind gusts in the vicinity
of tsra. Light east winds can be expected at all terminals
after 02Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the north-central waters today will
sink south through the week and will lie across the
southern waters by weeks end. A light northeast to easterly
wind flow is expected across the waters today, becoming
east-southeast Tuesday and Wednesday as the high sinks
further south with a weak pressure pattern supporting an
onshore see breeze component along the coast each afternoon.

During Thursday and Friday a weakening frontal trough will
move into and stall out across the northern peninsula and
northern Gulf waters as the surface ridge axis sets up across
the southern peninsula with a light southwest to westerly
wind flow expected over the waters. Wind and seas will be
higher near scattered thunderstorms each day, otherwise no
headlines are expected through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Ample moisture will keep humidity values well above critical
levels through the week with no fire weather issues expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  40  20  20  20
FMY  93  76  94  75 /  40  40  20  20
GIF  93  74  94  74 /  30  10  10  10
SRQ  92  78  91  78 /  40  30  20  20
BKV  93  74  94  74 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  91  80  91  79 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming