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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KTBW 221900
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Saturday)...
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High pressure will continue to ridge southward from the northeast
U.S. while Maria moves north well east of the Florida peninsula.
This pattern will keep an east to northeast flow across the region
with Atlantic moisture spreading westward. For tonight the east
coast sea breeze will move westward bringing an increase in the flow
during the evening and helping to push any convection out into the
eastern gulf. Skies will then be partly cloudy overnight with
temperatures falling into lower to middle 70s. On Saturday we`ll
have plenty of moisture, precipitable water 1.9 to 2.1 inches, in
place and with daytime heating scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop and move westward across the region
during mainly the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures
will continue to be near to a couple of degrees above normal with
daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Saturday Night-Friday)...
A mid/upper-level low will linger over the southeastern U.S.
through the end of the weekend and into early next week. A
trough/low out west will amplify into midweek as ridging builds
over the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. At the
surface, high pressure will remain centered to our north while
Maria moves northward across the western Atlantic. Low-level flow
will be easterly through Sunday and Monday, with isolated to
scattered rain chances each afternoon, mainly moving from east to
west. Some slightly drier air will move in over the region as
Maria passes slowly to our northeast, so rain chances will be
lower for the remainder of the week.

There are differences in the global models as we head into the end
of the week and into next weekend, with the GFS showing a deeper
trough over the southeast and a stronger cold front starting to move
into the region compared with the ECMWF. In general, it is a bit
early for that deep of a trough to be this far south, but this is
well out into the extended period of the forecast and model trends
will continue to be monitored over the coming days.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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VFR conditions will prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms
that develop this afternoon and evening which could cause some
MVFR/local IFR conditions. Northeast to east winds will generally
remain at 10 knots or less, but could see some gusts to around 25
knots in convection. VCTS mentioned at all TAF sites this afternoon
and early evening as scattered thunderstorms will develop and move
westward across the area. Saturday looks like similar to today
except for a little early start to the convection.
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&&

.MARINE...
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The east to northeast flow will continue with an evening surge
expected tonight and again Saturday evening, but winds should remain
around 15 knots or less. Then during Sunday through Tuesday the flow
will diminish some as Maria moves by well to the east of Florida
with the west coast sea breeze developing near the coast each
afternoon.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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No fire weather concerns for the next few days.
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&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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TPA  75  89  75  90 /  20  60  20  30
FMY  75  90  74  90 /  20  60  20  40
GIF  73  89  73  90 /  10  60  10  30
SRQ  74  90  74  88 /  20  60  20  30
BKV  72  89  72  90 /  10  60  10  20
SPG  77  88  76  89 /  20  60  20  30
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&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/Close
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle