Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 161300 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 900 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019 .UPDATE... Quiet morning across the region with just a few high clouds here and there. Morning TBW sounding indicating deep easterly flow just off the surface with precipitable water near 1.8 inches. There is a pocket of drier air across southwest Florida which could delay the development of clouds here this morning, but during the afternoon and evening the deeper moisture will return to the entire region. This moisture combined with daytime heating and the sea breezes will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms moving westward this afternoon and evening. The majority of the convection will develop late in the afternoon and early evening as the east coast sea breeze moves westward, but we will see isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up along the west coast sea breeze as in pushes inland during the early and mid afternoon hours. Overall the current forecast looks on track with no major changes needed. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions are expected into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could cause some MVFR/local IFR conditions at the terminals along with brief gusty winds. For now left VCTS as confidence in extent and timing not high enough to include Tempo groups yet. East to southeast winds at 5 to 9 knots are expected today with a shift to onshore as the bay/sea breeze develops at all terminals except LAL this afternoon, then light easterly winds for tonight. && .MARINE... A ridge of high pressure will provide light winds and slight seas through the week with a shift to onshore each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible, especially during the nighttime and early morning hours. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 249 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019/ DISCUSSION (Today - Monday)... Upper-level ridging over Florida will remain in place through Wednesday, then begin to build northward through the weekend. In fact, global models are in very good agreement showing a strong upper-level ridge dominating the eastern U.S. this weekend. This will bring hot and humid conditions to just about the entire eastern seaboard. An upper-level trough may dig far enough south to at least weaken the upper ridge on Monday. For our region, the position of the subtropical ridge will be the primary driving force in our day-to-day thunderstorm coverage and location. Other than minor fluctuations north to south, the ridge axis should generally set up over central Florida, which will allow afternoon sea breezes to push steadily inland from the Tampa Bay area north. Sea breezes south of Tampa Bay will have a tougher time pushing inland against the predominant easterly flow south of the ridge axis. Any lingering storms each evening will be steered by cold pools left over from earlier storms. In the end, just about anyone could see rain on any given day. FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns next several days. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 92 79 91 78 / 40 20 50 20 FMY 94 77 93 77 / 60 20 50 20 GIF 95 77 95 76 / 40 20 50 10 SRQ 92 77 91 77 / 40 20 40 20 BKV 95 74 94 74 / 40 20 50 20 SPG 93 80 92 79 / 30 20 40 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Close PREV DISCUSSION...Jillson UPPER AIR...Hurt DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard

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