106
FXUS62 KTBW 171754
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
154 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.DISCUSSION...
A weakened MCS responsible for some early storms continues to
shift eastward away from the region this afternoon as a frontal
boundary remains draped across the central peninsula. With low-
level southwest winds in place, expect any remaining rainfall to
generally shift inland through the rest of the day, though overall
chances are low. The boundary continues to lift northward tonight
into Saturday, with southwest winds continuing ahead of another
front moving into the southeast. With this setup in place, we can
expect more showers and storms for Saturday afternoon, with the
best chances north and then inland. By Saturday night into Sunday,
the front will move over the peninsula, with higher rain chances
through the day. The boundary lingers over south Florida for
Monday, keeping a chance for some showers and storms in the
forecast, but then high pressure builds in and keeps rain chances
lower through the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. There is
some question of patchy fog or low clouds early tomorrow morning,
but confidence remains too low for inclusion in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest to west winds will continue through the weekend ahead of
an approaching frontal boundary, which will bring increasing rain
chances to the waters starting Saturday and continuing through
Sunday and even into early next week. Rain chances then diminish for
the rest of the week as high pressure builds in. Overall, no
headlines are expected, just higher winds and seas within storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No Red Flag concerns over the next few days as relative humidity
values will remain above critical levels. Some patchy fog will be
possible tonight, mainly for the northern half of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  92  78  87 /   0  20  50  80
FMY  78  94  78  91 /   0  10  30  70
GIF  75  96  75  88 /  10  30  40  80
SRQ  77  93  76  89 /   0  10  40  70
BKV  72  93  72  86 /   0  30  50  80
SPG  81  89  79  86 /   0  20  50  70

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

05/Carlisle