664
FXUS62 KTBW 290023
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
823 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.FOR THE EVENING UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through
Monday with continued dry warm conditions. A progressive U/L
trough will move across the southeast U.S. and Florida Tuesday and
Wednesday with a slight chance of an afternoon shower, with the
best chance over the interior. High pressure will build back over
the forecast area late in the week. Temperatures are expected to
run several degrees above normal each day during the upcoming week
and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Ridging aloft remains over the region but is finally weakening and
shifting Eward as several shortwaves impact the ridge from the W.
Another easterly surge this evening to keep the occasionally gusty
conditions in place with warm and dry temps. Strong high pressure
is expected to slowly weaken in the W Atlantic Monday through mid
week allowing the gradient to relax with a return of the bay and sea
breezes during the afternoons.

The stronger shortwave is expected to bring upper energy through
the region Tuesday afternoon with a chance of diurnal seabreeze
initiated showers mainly over interior areas in Tue evening.
There may be enough residual energy and moisture lingering over
the area for a slight chance of showers Wed afternoon into
evening as well.

By Thu and into next weekend, stacked ridging builds back over
the region with the warm and mainly dry conditions returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 813 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Monday. Skies generally
becoming FEW-SCT250 tonight. Daytime heating will generate SCT
LCL BKN 050-060 at all terminals Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure with a tight pressure gradient remains over the
waters with choppy elevated westward propagating seas with
cautionary level conditions ongoing and to continue through the
easterly surge this evening. The sea state begins to improve
Monday through mid week as winds lighten and the sea breeze
returns by mid week with winds turning onshore during the
afternoons along the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry high pressure continues over the region with
occasionally gusty easterly flow and a few hours of low RH values
along with occasionally gusty winds and high dispersions in some
areas through Monday. Fire weather risk remains somewhat elevated
with these conditions, however, fuels expected to remain moist
enough to preclude additional concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  86  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  66  88  67  88 /   0  10   0  20
GIF  62  86  66  87 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  65  88  67  87 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  58  88  61  88 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  70  85  72  85 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis