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000
FXUS61 KBUF 260801
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
401 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western
New England will slide east to the New England coastline today...and
will provide us with a fine spring day to close out the work week.
After a chilly start...temperatures will quickly rebound into the
upper 50s and 60s as a return flow of milder air develops around the
departing high. The warming trend will then continue over the
weekend and into early next week...resulting in late spring to
summerlike warmth engulfing our region both Sunday and Monday. While
there will also be a few showers and thunderstorms around,
particularly during Saturday, a fair amount of dry time can also be
expected. A cold front will then bring our next chance for more
widespread showers and a few thunderstorms as it crosses our region
Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sprawling Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and
western New England will drift further east to the New England
coastline today...while keeping fair dry weather intact across our
region. While there could be some very thin/spotty high clouds...as
well as very some limited afternoon diurnal cumulus across far
western New York...these will not mar what will again be abundant
amounts of sunshine. With a return flow of milder air setting up on
the backside of the departing high...temps will rebound rather
nicely after a chilly start...with highs climbing back to the upper
50s across the North Country and to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
This said...an ENE flow off Lake Ontario will help to keep temps
along the south shore of that lake confined to the 50s.

Tonight the surface high will remain anchored just offshore of the
New England coast...while sharp upper-level ridging builds across
New York State. Meanwhile further west...an initial cutter-type low
will weaken as it tracks from the central Plains states to the Upper
Mississippi Valley. As it does so...this system will push its
attendant warm front east toward our region...where it will run
smack up against the strong ridging that we`ll have in place aloft.
With this in mind...it comes as no surprise that the guidance suite
continues to trend slower and weaker with the approaching front...
with this feature now appearing to advance east slowly enough to
merely bring a general west-east in mid and high cloud cover to most
areas tonight...with perhaps the chance of a shower reaching
Chautauqua county late. Otherwise the night should remain dry...and
will feature considerably milder temperatures than the previous
couple nights as a southeasterly return flow of milder air
strengthens across our region. Expect lows to range from the upper
30s across the North Country to near 50 along the Lake Erie
shoreline...where downsloping will provide an added boost to
temps...and may also allow winds to gust to 30-35 mph during the
second half of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will dig across the Northern Plains, with a
series of diffuse surface lows forecast to track to our north and
west during the weekend. A warm front extending from the the first
wave of low pressure will move across our region from southwest to
northeast on Saturday. The front will weaken late Saturday as it
gets further from the surface low. This front will likely bring some
showers to the region on Saturday, but the day should be far from a
washout. The day will be mostly cloudy with a few hours of showers
in some spots, but otherwise warmer with highs in the upper 50s to
upper 60s with the warmest locations downwind of the Chautauqua
Ridge near the Lake Erie shoreline. Southerly flow will maintain
above normal temperatures throughout the weekend. 850mb warm up to
+12/13 C which will support high temperatures well above normal in
the 70s to lower 80s on Sunday.

The combination of the warmer temperatures and the lingering
synoptic lift from the lingering/stalled cold front to the north of
the area, will support diurnally driven instability and afternoon
showers/thunderstorms. A mid-level ridge axis will cross the area
Sunday night supporting dry weather Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Departing upper level ridge will maintain mainly rain-free weather
for Monday, with only a slight chance of an instability shower or
thunderstorm. Monday will almost feel summer-like with highs
reaching 80F at many locations.

Low pressure tracking across the central Great Lakes and into
Ontario province will push a cold front across the region on
Tuesday. Warm and moist air mass in place will result in ample
instability to support thunderstorms with the frontal passage,
especially Tuesday afternoon and early evening.

After this, forecast confidence decreases with a wider range in the
way model guidance handles a series of weak frontal boundaries. In
general there`s a small chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday,
focused during afternoon/evening hours corresponding to diurnal
heating. It will be a bit cooler, but temperatures will still remain
above normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Canadian high pressure centered over eastern New York and western
New England will slide to the New England coastline today...while
providing us with continued fair dry weather. While there could be
some very thin/spotty high clouds...as well as very some limited
afternoon diurnal cumulus across far western New York...these will
not prevent a continuation of unlimited VFR conditions right through
00z Saturday.

Tonight weakening low pressure will make its way from Nebraska to
Minnesota...while pushing its attendant warm front toward our
region. While this will bring a general west-to-east increase in mid
and high cloud cover along with a chance of showers to extreme far
southwestern New York late...flight conditions will remain VFR.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with some showers likely and an isolated
thunderstorm possible.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/VFR with showers becoming likely
along with a chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Canadian high pressure centered across eastern New York and western
New England will slide further east to the New England coastline
today...with a general easterly to northeasterly flow continuing
across the lower Great Lakes. On Lake Ontario winds will be more
easterly...and will become strong enough to bring advisory-level
conditions to the portions of the lake west of Rochester this
afternoon and evening. Meanwhile on Lake Erie...winds will back to
northeasterly and increase to 10-15 knots once again...resulting in
the redevelopment of a moderate chop.

Tonight and Saturday the high will remain anchored off the New
England coast...while low pressure tracks from the central Plains to
central Ontario. This will result in winds across the Lower Lakes
veering to southeast and then south while strengthening later
tonight into Saturday...though the increasingly offshore nature of
the flow will help to direct the greatest wave action across
Canadian waters. As a result...conditions are expected to remain
below advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening
         for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR