745
FXUS61 KBUF 140150
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
950 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will continue to support a few
showers and thunderstorms through this evening, some of which
could produce heavy downpours. In the wake of the front, drier
weather will return along with less humidity. More heat expected
by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very warm and humid airmass resides across the eastern Great Lakes
region this evening. An upper level trough over northern Ontario
will move east-northeast, helping to push a cold front into the
region. Deep moisture fields ahead of the front with
precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches will support the
potential for a few heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms
through the late evening.

The upper level trough axis will move through the region with the
cold front finally exiting the eastern edge of the forecast area
Monday. There remains a corridor of deep moisture from the Ohio
Valley into New England, which keeps the chance for showers and
thunderstorms across interior portions of the forecast area. A
convergence zone may develop along the lake plains south of Lake
Ontario and there is a low chance of showers developing by
afternoon. Humidity levels will lower behind the frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Primarily zonal mid-level flow across the central to eastern Great
Lakes Monday night will build into a ridge as the next trough dives
south out of the Canadian Rockies and into the northern Plains
Tuesday and into Wednesday. As such, building heights and surface
high pressure will result in drier weather Monday night through
Tuesday night.

A quick paced shortwave trough traveling northeast (across the
central and eastern Great Lakes) within the exit region of the
aforementioned longwave trough Wednesday and Wednesday night will
not only continue to support ample moisture and warmth to advect
northward but also support a weak surface low to pass across the
Great Lakes, supporting increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Additionally as alluded to previously, hot and humid
conditions will be present Wednesday and may warrant heat headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Longwave troughing will be in the midst of crossing the central and
eastern Great Lakes Thursday and Friday before zonal flow returns
for the weekend.

Passage of a shortwave trough and corresponding warm front Thursday
combined with a warm muggy airmass in place will support showers and
thunderstorms to spark. To follow the warm front, a cold front will
pass across the area late Thursday night through Friday continuing
the chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Aforementioned zonal flow will support surface high pressure to
settle in across the Great Lakes for the weekend. However, long
range guidance continues to flip-flop with the pattern and therefore
confidence continues to remain low for a completely dry weekend.
This being said, the forecast resembles a slight chance for a shower
and afternoon thunderstorm with temperatures rebounding back towards
normal with highs in the low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slow-moving cold front will approach our region through this
evening. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
decrease through this evening (but a few locally heavy downpours
remain possible). Lingering showers/storms may produce
brief/localized reductions (mainly in visibility) to MVFR or even
IFR...with VFR conditions otherwise prevailing.

Showers and storms are possible through the first half of the
overnight which may cause flight restrictions at TAF sites,
especially at KROC and KART. Low-level moisture will pool across the
region and stratus is possible across interior Southern Tier and
North Country late tonight.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered
mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will track across the area, continuing the potential
for some showers and a few thunderstorms through the late
evening.

With high pressure building into the region to start the new work
week, winds are expected to remain light, below SCA levels through
at least the middle of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/SW/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR/SW/TMA
MARINE...SW