Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 271852
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
252 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
While a few light showers could be found across the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario regions through this evening...high pressure
nosing int our region from thew Ohio Valley will set the stage for a
stretch of fair dry weather through at least Friday night. Some
light mixed precipitation will then be possible for the first half
of the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
One last cold front will slowly push through the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario regions early this evening...and this is where
some scattered light rain showers will be possible. Otherwise drier
air in the mid levels will gradually mix down across the western
counties tonight to promote at least partial clearing. It will be
chillier than the past couple nights...as the mercury will settle
into the low to mid 30s for most areas and into the upper 20s across
the Srn Tier.

High pressure centered over the Ohio valley will then nose to the
northeast across our region Thursday and Thursday night. This will
guarantee fair dry weather...although clouds will be slow to thin
out from the Finger Lakes eastward to the foothills of the
Adirondacks. Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level longwave trough spanning across eastern New York and
western New England Friday morning will continue to rotate northeast
into New England Friday. Meanwhile, in it`s wake zonal flow will
spread across the central and eastern Great Lakes Friday night.
Overall this will support surface high pressure centered over the
southeastern United States to ridge northward across the area
Friday.

Then later Friday night, a subtle mid-level shortwave will push east
through the zonal flow across the Great Lakes. This in return will
support a surface low to dive southeast across the central Great
Lakes and then slide east across the Ohio Valley and into the
northern mid-Atlantic Saturday. As a result, expect an increase in
shower activity beginning Saturday morning and lasting through
Saturday night. At first, a rain/snow mix will be possible early
Saturday morning, however with radiational heating shortly after
sunrise, will support precipitation to be all rain. The best areas
for shower activity will lie across the Southern Tier due to the
close proximity of the low. As of right now, rainfall amounts look
minimal with up to a tenth of an inch possible.

Zonal flow will then return Sunday, supporting surface high pressure
to fill in across the area in the wake of the low. As such, expect
dry weather to return and last into much of Sunday night.

Temperatures throughout this period will remain near normal with
highs ranging in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The
coolest day of the weekend will be Friday due to the upper level
trough exiting overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long range model guidance continues to have a decent handle on the
evolution of the upper level pattern for the first half of next
week, however continue to struggle with resolution of surface
feature development, track, and timing.

Let`s start with where there is higher confidence...the upper
levels. Opening the period, we find an upper level low over the Four
Corners region, while a relatively flat upper flow is in place
across the eastern CONUS with several quick-moving, but weak
shortwaves moving through the west to east flow. Aforementioned
upper level low will weaken and shear out rather quickly as it moves
toward the southern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge looks to
amplify over the western CONUS, which will eventually force a
downstream upper level trough to take shape with several pieces of
shortwave energy diving southeastward ultimately carving out an
upper level trough across much of the eastern CONUS by midweek.

Now for the lower confidence piece of the forecast...surface feature
development. While this will in all likelihood lead to the
development of an intensifying low pressure system off to our west,
as mentioned above, there is still disagreement amongst the models
with regard to the strength, track, and timing of this system. That
said, 27/12Z model suite has come into somewhat better agreement on
a primary area of low pressure taking shape somewhere near the mid
Mississippi Valley then tracking east with our area on the northern
periphery of the main precipitation shield, with this energy
eventually reaching the East Coast by midweek. All the while, a
sharpening upper level trough will now be in place in the East. This
scenario will then lead the potential for the development of a
coastal system that could strengthen as it rides northeast along the
East Coast.

In terms of precipitation, any QPF would likely remain in the form
of rain through the first part of next week, before colder air is
drawn south on the back side of the developing coastal system, with
the possibility to introduce some wet snow into the forecast toward
mid week. Temperatures near average to start the period will trend
below average toward the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cigs of 2500-3500 feet will be found across the region through this
evening...as the second of two cold fronts will limp through the
region. Skies will SLOWLY clear from west to east during the course
of tonight.

VFR weather can then be anticipated Thursday and Thursday night...as
high pressure over the Ohio valley will nose to the northeast across
the region.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR, but with showers possible far west late.
Saturday night...MVFR to VFR with scattered mixed rain/snow showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR.
Monday...VFR to MVFR with some rain possible.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will slowly cross the Lakes today and this evening with
southerly winds, with a bit of a gust at times, becoming westerly
later today and tonight. The southerly winds will be strongest along
the eastern Lake Ontario shoreline from Sandy Pond to the Saint
Lawrence River where speeds upwards to 20 knots will remain through
the afternoon. Otherwise winds will largely remain below small craft
thresholds, with a choppy lake water of several feet.

Behind this cold front high pressure will nose towards our region
with winds and waves diminishing Thursday.

Cold air advection combined with a tightening pressure gradient
between the surface high and a strengthening east coast low will
increase northwest winds Thursday night, that may reach small craft
thresholds, along with wave heights late Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Thomas


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