002
FXUS63 KFGF 142320
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
620 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Isolated strong storms this evening in the Devils Lake Basin
through the Sheyenne River Valley points westward. Main impacts are
small hail and gusty winds.

-There are additional precipitation chances on and off through next
week with a low probability of severe thunderstorm impacts on some
days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Cloud cover is increasing this evening to the west, with showers
and isolated thunderstorms moving slowly northeastward out of
south central North Dakota. CAMs show the potential for this
activity to reach the area late this evening, with showers
possibly persisting into the overnight period. Overall, the
forecast remains on track with minimal changes needed this
update.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...Synopsis...

A weak  boundary continues to shift east across northwestern
Minnesota. Currently its situated along the Lake of the Woods to
Wilkin county area. Instability is around 1000 J/kg allowing for a
few isolated thunderstorms to briefly develop on the southern extent
of the line. These storms continue over the next several hours and
push slowly toward the east with the boundary. Upper level ridging
continues to dominate out east, while a trough digs into the western
United States. Flow aloft is thus out of the southwest setting up an
active pattern across eastern North Dakota and northwestern
Minnesota today through the end of the long term. This increases our
chances for precipitation across the region as waves move along the
southwesterly flow. The first of these waves moves through late this
evening and into Sunday morning.

...Isolated Strong Storms...

An upper level wave over South Dakota and Nebraska will continue to
shift northeast into North Dakota this evening and into Sunday.
Thunderstorms have already developed in southwestern South Dakota
this afternoon. These will gradually track toward the northeast with
further development expected ahead of them. Some of the unstable air
in SD will advect into the Sheyenne River Valley and south central
ND this evening helping to sustain the thunderstorms. Some guidance
wants to place a weak LLJ aloft in central ND overnight which would
in turn keep the thunderstorms around and push them NE into the
Devils Lake Basin. However, instability will be on the weaker side
(1500 J/kg) and remain elevated. This would hinder any severe
weather potential overnight. Some of the storms may be on the
stronger side as they shift through the Sheyenne River Valley and
Devils Lake Basin, but that will be all dependent on how much
unstable air advects into the region and just how strong the LLJ
maybe. None the less, there is a 20% chance for a few stronger
storms to move through the Devils Lake Basin and Sheyenne River
Valley later this evening and overnight. Main impacts would be brief
heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning/thunder.
The Red River Valley may see a few isolated thunderstorms later this
evening and overnight, but areas east of the valley have a low
chance (20% chance) for precipitation. Chance for storms continue
early on Sunday, but conditions clear out briefly before another
short wave moves along the southwesterly flow.

...Precipitation Chances...

Day 2 and onward we are looking at an active pattern continuing as
the ridge out east refuses to budge. This keeps us in a blocking
pattern through the end of next week. There is some hints from
guidance that the blocking starts to break down slowly end of the
week and into next weekend but confidence is low on that occurrence.
Out of the southwesterly flow we have continued chance for
precipitation as waves move out of the flow aloft. Best chance for
precipitation Sunday night into Monday will be in the Red River
Valley points westward. Early next week we see several more chances
for precipitation, with a few stronger storms possible. Guidance
continues to paint a picture of instability being advected in along
with stronger moisture returns early to mid next week. Long range
guidance has started to hint at a low possibility of severe weather
early to mid next week. Confidence is low on exact timing, location,
and intensity but with the active pattern and stronger
moisture/instability the chance is there. We will continue to
monitor the thunderstorm chances through the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail at all sites through the TAF period. Look
for isolated showers and thunderstorms moving into the area late
this evening, with the best chances for showers occurring at
KGFK. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out in the
vicinity of KFAR and KDVL through early Sunday morning. Winds
are expected to remain in the range of 7 to 12 knots through
much of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...Lynch