358
FXUS65 KFGZ 181548
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
848 AM MST Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will continue over the weekend
and through much of the coming week. Look for gusty afternoon
winds each day, strongest on Monday with the passing of a dry
weather disturbance.

&&

.UPDATE...The ridge that has been over Arizona the past couple
days is sliding eastward this morning as a weak trough approaches
from the west. The trough will bring an increase in southwesterly
winds today with gusts 25-35 mph, as well as push a batch of
mostly mid and high clouds across the region. Otherwise it will be
a warm and dry afternoon, no forecast updates are needed this
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /306 AM MST/...For today and Sunday, Warm
daytime temperatures will continue. As the high moves eastward a
long-wave trough will begin to build over the western states. The
result will be strengthening pressure gradients for stronger winds
and a distinct shift to a more southwesterly direction. Afternoon
sustained winds in the 10 to 20 mph range with gusts near 35 mph
are likely each day. It will remain dry.

On Monday and Tuesday...A stronger short-wave trough will rotate
through the western states long-wave pattern producing even
stronger winds. Look for southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph gusting
into the 40 to 50 mph range, especially from the Mogollon Rim
northward Monday afternoon. The main concern on Monday will be a
heightened fire weather threat as dry air and gusty winds combine
for an environment conducive to rapid fire spread. By Tuesday
there will be enough moisture and dynamic lift combined with
cooling aloft associated with the short-wave trough for an outside
chance of high based showers near the Arizona/Utah border.
Elsewhere, dry. Lighter winds are forecast for Tuesday as the
short-wave moves eastward. High temperatures will cool some by
around 5 to 10 degrees compared to Sunday.

From Wednesday onward...A series of short-wave troughs continue
to brush northern Arizona delivering afternoon west to southwest
breezes each day and periodic slight chances for high-based
showers along the Arizona/Utah border.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 18/12Z through Sunday 19/12Z...VFR conditions
continue. Light winds early, becoming west to southwest at 10-20
kts gusting to 30 kts during the afternoon. Light winds return
tonight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/12Z through Tuesday 21/12Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Southwest winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts on
Sunday. Southwest winds increase Monday to 20-25 kts with gusts
30-40 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry conditions will continue
through the weekend. Look for southwest winds at 10-20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph each afternoon. Minimum RH values between 10-20%.

Monday through Wednesday...Near critical to critical fire weather
conditions are expected across much of northern Arizona on Monday.
Warm and dry conditions will continue with southwest winds 25-35 mph
gusting to 40-50 mph on Monday. Winds will decrease to 10-20 mph for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH values will range between 5-15%
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff