653
FXUS63 KJKL 150825
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through this
  evening. After a lull on Thursday, the shower and thunderstorm
  chances return to close out the week.

- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
  through the work week following a bit of a cool down today
  owing to the showers around.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows a broad area of stacked low pressure
spinning over Kentucky and slowly working east. This has kept damp
conditions around through the night with times of showers and fog
beneath mostly cloudy skies and amid light southerly winds.
Temperatures and dewpoints are similar throughout the forecast
area - in this mild and moist environment - with readings in the
upper 50s to lower 60s, most places.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in better
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast
compared to 24 hours ago. They all depict an open 5h low easing
east through Kentucky today along with a healthy amount of mid
level energy. The cyclonic flow associated with this low also
tracks off to the east later tonight with a weak area of ridging
moving to over eastern Kentucky on Thursday - as 5h heights peak
that afternoon. Thereafter, the pattern starts to flatten and more
energy starts to work into the state well in advance of the next
area of troughing inbound from the southern Plains. The model
spread has shrunk with the latest runs on account of the ECMWF
and NAM/GFS timing of the exiting trough being more similar.
Accordingly, the NBM was used as the starting point for the short
term grids along with the incorporation of the CAMs` details for
PoPs and timing through tonight.

Sensible weather features a damp and somewhat cool day with
scattered to numerous showers and potential thunderstorms around
into the evening. Some drying will take place tonight, but most
likely this will only prompt the development of a thicker, and
possibly widespread, blanket of fog for much of the late night
hours. In addition, the higher moisture than normal will make for
another mild night and near uniform temperatures. Thursday looks
to be one of the drier days of the week but still a stray shower
or storm will be possible late in the afternoon and during the
evening - mainly in the east. Less showers around will make for a
warmer day with near normal temperatures, as well.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for the shower and
thunder chances through this evening. The temperatures and
dewpoints from the NBM were not adjusted much considering the high
levels of RH through the night time periods.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024

The large scale upper level pattern in the extended will feature a
trough exiting the mid-Atlantic region into the west central
Atlantic Ocean, weak ridging in place over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys extending southward into the central and northern Gulf of
Mexico, and weak troughs moving through the central Great Plains
and Four Corners regions to begin the period. We should start off
mostly dry on Thursday, but may see a few showers and storms
lingering across our eastern counties, on the backside of a
departing trough. The ridge is expected to be weak, and will only
influence our weather during the day on Thursday, before the
troughs to our west move in and displace it. We should see another
solid round of showers and storms affecting eastern Kentucky
Thursday evening through Monday, as series of troughs move across
the eastern half of the CONUS. The first trough will be the
weakest of the bunch and will isolated to scattered showers and
storms to the area Thursday night into Friday. A second much
stronger system will move through the area Friday night through
Saturday, and will bring widespread showers and storms to the
area. A couple of other decent systems will work their way
eastward across the area Saturday through Monday, and will bring
more rounds of showers and storms to eastern Kentucky. All in all,
the extended looks to be quite active.

Temperatures will be generally above normal, with the warmest days
seeing highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Nightly lows will only
fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s. There are no weather
concerns in the extended to speak of. Any thunderstorms we
experience could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and
cloud to ground lighting, but there is no severe weather
anticipated at this time. A combination of the GFS, GFE Ensembles,
and ECMWF models were used to create the extended portion of the
forecast this time around.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2024

After a brief lull in the convection, another round of showers
and potential thunderstorms will impact the area into dawn. Any
breaks in, or thinning of, the cloud cover and precipitation will
continue to produce fog through 13Z. Thus, expect a changeable
mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR conditions through the morning and
possibly carrying into early afternoon, with MVFR conditions more
likely to prevail between until around 18Z when VFR conditions
should be able to hold outside of showers and storms. Winds will
largely remain light through the period, through any stronger
storm near TAF sites could produce a brief period of gusty and
erratic winds. A more persistent northwest wind of 5 to 10 kts is
expected to set in later in the afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF