784
FXUS62 KMLB 102006
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
406 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)

Key Messages:

 Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorm through this
evening

With an unstable air mass (CAPE around 3,000 J/kg) ahead of an
approaching front, there is a low chance for thunderstorms to
develop across the northern half of the CWA. If thunderstorms are
able to develop and become severe, the primary hazards will be gusty
winds and small hail. As we lose daytime heating this evening into
tonight, the severe threat is expected to wind down. Models continue
to show the front pushing through Central Florida tonight around
midnight with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing along
the front. Drier air will quickly filter into the region late
tonight into tomorrow as PWAT drop to near 1" across the northern
half of the CWA, which ranks in the lower 10% of climatology.
Meanwhile, the southern half of the CWA will remain moist as the dry
air struggles to make its way down the peninsula (PWAT near 1.5";
75% of climatology).

Despite the passage of the front tonight, relief from the daytime
highs in the 90s is not expected, however, heat indices (feels like
temperatures) will be about 8-10 degrees lower tomorrow compared to
today across the the northern half of the CWA. Across the southern
half where above normal moisture is expected to remain, heat indices
will remain in the triple digits with heat indices peaking near 102
degrees with a moderate risk of heat-related impacts. The most
significant impact from this cold front will be overnight
temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 60s tomorrow night.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)

Key Messages:

 Increasing showers and thunderstorm chances into the middle of
next week, greatest chances Tuesday through Wednesday, threat of
strong to severe storms

 Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Orange County southward
Monday through Thursday next week

The new week begins with weak surface northeasterly flow and
temperatures from the mid 60s to around 70 early Sunday morning.
Moisture will stay below normal through Sunday morning keeping rain-
free conditions intact, then increase heading into the work week as
southeasterly flow returns Sunday night. Partly cloudy skies are
expected on Sunday due to PVA from 700-500mb disturbances riding the
mid-level ridge. Sunday`s highs from the mid 80s along the coast to
the lower 90s inland.

Moisture increases to above normal (PWATs > 1.75") Monday along with
over 90th percentile IVT to allow for a low to medium (30-40%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Dewpoints
climbing back to around 70 Monday afternoon along with temperatures
around 90 will lead to an increasing risk of heat-related impacts
that will persist through the work week.

Rain chances will increase through the middle of next week as a
trough pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley into the
Atlantic Ocean from Tuesday through Wednesday night. This time frame
will be our greatest chances (40-70%) for showers and thunderstorms,
south to north respectively, along with the threat of strong to
severe storms. Model agreement is best over the northern half of
Florida where conditions will be most favorable for convection due
to the proximity of the sub-tropical jet and mid-level PVA as the
trough progresses eastward. Both the GEFS and ECENS probs of CAPE >
1000 J/kg is at least 60% over the CWA with GFS soundings indicating
effective shear around 40 knots and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the EPS CAPE/SHEAR EFIs remain
high from 0.7 to 0.95, indicating a very unusual or extreme weather
scenario is likely. Surface winds shift southwesterly Tuesday and
continue through Thursday as the reflecting surface low moves into
the eastern CONUS and Atlantic.

Rain chances diminish Wednesday night as the trough shifts east into
the Atlantic. A low to medium (30-40%) chance will continue during
the day Thursday and Friday due to well above normal moisture and
shortwave disturbances extending over Florida on the tail-end of the
trough and another approaching mid-level trough from the west as we
head into next weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Weak to moderate south to southwesterly flow will continue this
evening before shifting to the north tonight after midnight in the
wake of the cold front. Weak winds around 10 knots are expected
across the local waters Saturday into Saturday night. There is a low
to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and
tonight across the Atlantic waters with rain chances quickly
tapering off morning into the afternoon hours from north to south. Weak
northeasterly winds Sunday will shift southeasterly Sunday night
and strengthen to 15-20 knots Monday afternoon. Moderate
southeasterly winds will shift southwesterly Tuesday night and
continue through the middle of next week. There is a 20 to 40
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday, increasing to
40 to 60 percent through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  67  84 /  30   0   0   0
MCO  74  93  67  91 /  30  10   0   0
MLB  73  88  70  85 /  30  10   0   0
VRB  71  91  69  87 /  20  20   0  10
LEE  73  91  67  90 /  30   0   0   0
SFB  73  92  67  90 /  30   0   0   0
ORL  74  93  69  90 /  30  10   0   0
FPR  71  91  68  87 /  20  30   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-
     254-259.

AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pena
LONG TERM...Forinash
AVIATION...Price/Metz