766
FXUS62 KMLB 150922
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
522 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 522 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Messages...

-Higher shower and storm coverage today ahead of an approaching
 front, with some storms becoming strong to severe.

-Turning drier and hot into late week, with highs in the 90s
 nearing records for some locations.

-Potential for scattered showers and storms return into the
 weekend, with unseasonably hot and humid conditions continuing.

Currently...A swath of deeper moisture (PW values ~2.0 inches)
resides across north FL well ahead of a frontal boundary moving into
the southeast U.S. early this morning. Increasing moisture and
instability expected across northern portions of east central
Florida through daybreak. Band of convection already developing
across northern Lake and Volusia counties in this moist and
unstable airmass, and additional showers and storms will be
possible into the predawn hours, pushing eastward across areas
near to north of Orlando prior to sunrise. Strong to isolated
severe storms will continue to be possible with this activity,
and a Tornado Watch has been issued for Lake and Volusia counties
southward through Brevard and Osceola counties through 11 AM.

Today-Tonight...Band of deeper moisture (PW up to 1.8-2.0 inches)
will shift southward across central FL today well ahead of an
approaching front that will push into north FL this afternoon.
Mid to upper level trough will continue to shift across the
southeast U.S. leading to scattered to numerous showers and storms
developing across the area today, pushing eastward across the
area and offshore. Greatest coverage will exist across areas from
Brevard and Osceola counties northward into the morning/early
afternoon, with outflow from this system then leading to
increasing convective development across Okeechobee County and the
Treasure Coast into the afternoon/early evening. Some strong to
severe storms will continue to be possible through today, with the
primary threats being strong to locally damaging winds, coin-
sized hail, a tornado or two, and frequent lightning strikes.
Training of storms may also lead to some localized heavy rainfall
of 2-4 inches, which may lead to minor flooding.

Earlier start to convection and greater cloud cover across northern
portions of east central Florida today will limit highs to the mid
to upper 80s near to north of a line from Lake Kissimmee to
Melbourne and in the low to mid 90s south where convection will be
delayed and more sunshine will occur. Near record highs forecast
at Vero Beach and Fort Pierce today. It will be breezy with
sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible.

Convection will weaken into tonight, with some redevelopment of
showers and storms possible overnight as front shifts southward,
mainly across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Can`t rule
out a strong storm or two, but severe threat looks low. Lows will
still be mild in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Low pressure moves off the mid Atlantic coast on
Thursday. An associated moisture boundary continues to slowly sink
southward across the Florida peninsula before temporarily stalling.
There are model disagreements in how far south the boundary may
stall. A GFS solution keeps a band of moisture along the Treasure
and across Okeechobee county while the ECMWF pushes the boundary
further into south Florida. Have kept a mention of isolated to
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms in vicinity of the
GFS moisture while keeping areas from Melbourne/ Lake Kissimmee
northward dry. Mid level troughing and an associated area of
surface low pressure moves across the central U.S. on Friday and
broad ridging builds locally. Modest moisture returns northward, and
precip chances remain limited (~ 10-20%). Coverage remains generally
focused along the Treasure Coast and into Okeechobee county Friday.

Above seasonal temperatures are forecast to range the low 90s on
Thursday while a few mid 90s across the southern interior cannot be
completely ruled out. Highs further warm into Friday, more widely
ranging the 90s. Low 90s are forecast along the immediate coast,
warming into the mid 90s across the north interior. A few areas of
upper 90s could even be reached across the interior Treasure Coast
counties and in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Increasing moisture will
put heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s across much of
east central Florida.

Saturday-Wednesday...Aforementioned mid level troughing and surface
low pressure moves into the eastern U.S., moving offshore the
eastern seaboard Sunday night into Monday. Moisture increases ahead
of a cold front passage Sunday. PoPs ranging 40-50 percent on
Saturday increase to 50-60 percent Sunday, and greatest coverage is
forecast from Melbourne/ Lake Kissimmee southward on Sunday.
Conditions are forecast to dry some Monday and Tuesday behind the
front keeping isolated to scattered showers each afternoon. High
temperatures remain above normal through the period with Saturday
being the hottest day. High temperatures mostly range the mid to
upper 90s Saturday with heat indexes widely ranging the low 100s.
High temperatures a few degrees lower Sunday into early next week
but still warmer than normal with highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 522 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Some MVFR cigs may develop and build across mainly northern portion
of east central Florida through the predawn hours, with showers and
storms already getting off to an early start near to north of
KMCO prior to daybreak. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
will develop across the area today ahead of an approaching front.
Some strong to severe storms will be possible, mainly from Brevard
and Osceola counties northward into the morning/early afternoon,
with threat then shifting southward to include the Okeechobee and
Treasure Coast region during the afternoon hours. Tempo IFR/MVFR
conditions will occur with any of this activity, with the
potential for stronger wind gusts, hail, and heavy downpours. A
tornado or two also can not be ruled out. Breezy W/SW flow will
occur today, with speeds around 14-17 knots and gusts to 25 knots.
Winds then diminish into tonight, gradually falling to 8-10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 522 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Today-Tonight...Poor boating conditions will continue offshore where
southwest winds up to 15-20 knots will largely continue through the
day and then veer to the west into tonight. High coverage of showers
and storms expected today ahead of an approaching front, with some
strong to severe storms possible as they push offshore, producing
stronger wind gusts and frequent lightning strikes. A waterspout or
two will also be possible across the waters with this offshore
moving convection.

Thursday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) Boating conditions are
forecast to remain generally favorable late this week into the
weekend across the local Atlantic waters. Offshore winds 10 to 15
knots on Thursday will veer to out of the southeast on Friday,
becoming southerly to southwesterly Saturday and Sunday. Seas will
remain between 1 to 3 feet through the period, with some portions
of the offshore waters potentially reaching 4 feet at times.
Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible
across the local waters, with storms expected to move offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 522 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The wetter pattern will continue today, with another round of
strong to severe storms pushing through the area. This will be
followed by drying Thursday and Friday into late week. Min RH
values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds today, but
then should fall as low as 35 percent across portions of the
interior on Thursday afternoon. Winds will breezy out of the
southwest to west on Wednesday with little chance for a sea
breeze. Slightly less westerly flow Thursday should allow the sea
breeze to develop in the afternoon. High temperatures warm into
the mid 90s Wednesday across southern sections with heat index
values between 100-105. Widespread low to mid 90s Thursday but
lower humidity will limit the heat indices. Very good to excellent
smoke dispersion expected today and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  91  69 /  80  10   0   0
MCO  87  72  92  70 /  80  10  10   0
MLB  91  72  91  70 /  70  30  10   0
VRB  94  71  93  71 /  60  40  30   0
LEE  85  71  91  70 /  80  10   0   0
SFB  88  71  93  70 /  80  10   0   0
ORL  88  72  92  71 /  80  10  10   0
FPR  94  71  93  70 /  60  40  30   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tornado Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for FLZ041-044>046-
     053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...Tornado Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ550-552.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich