659
FXUS64 KMOB 160458
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1158 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours, although
there may be a few isolated instances of low end MVFR or IFR
visibilities in very patchy fog tonight. At the TAF locations this
will be most notable at KJKA. Northerly winds of 5 knots or less
tonight become light southeast to southerly at 5 to 10 knots on
Thursday and then southerly at around 5 knots Thursday evening.
DS/12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 655 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024/

..New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the next 24 hours. Northerly winds
of 5 knots or less tonight become light southeast to southerly at
5 to 10 knots on Thursday. DS/12

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

An upper level ridge will amplify over the southeast on Thursday
as the next shortwave begins to eject into the plains. The ridging
combined with a deep layer dry airmass will keep Thursday dry
under mostly sunny skies. Highs on Thursday will warm into the
upper 80s to around 90 inland to mid and upper 80s near the coast.
Lows tonight will be in the low 60s inland to mid and upper 60s
near the coast. /13

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The next storm system moves in from the west late Thursday as a
slow moving upper trough moves across the central plains bringing
more showers and thunderstorms to the area through Saturday
morning. A lead shortwave is expected to eject northeastward
Thursday night into Friday morning bringing a round of heavy rain
and thunderstorms to portions of the area. Additional rounds of
thunderstorms will develop across the area on Friday and continue
until a front finally clears the area out Saturday afternoon/evening.
Due to the wet ground conditions from heavy rains earlier this
week, WPC has areas along and northwest of I-65 in a Moderate
Risk of flooding (4-6 inches possible) with a Slight Risk to the
southeast of I-65. Severe storms are also possible on Friday for
portions of the area. SPC has a slight risk out for the western
half of the area with a marginal risk for eastern area. Damaging
winds again will be the main threat along with large hail. /13

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Dry and increasingly warm conditions expected Sunday through
Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds over the area. Temperatures
will be about 3 to 7 degrees above normal, with highs ranging
from 86 to 92 degrees and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. /13

MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Southerly winds will increase along with building seas late in
the week ahead of an approaching front. The approaching front will
bring showers and thunderstorms to the marine area at times
Thursday night through Saturday morning. Offshore flow return late
in the weekend into early next week in the wake of the front. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  88  70  85  70  84  68  90 /   0   0  40  70  50  60  10   0
Pensacola   68  86  73  84  73  81  71  88 /   0   0  30  60  50  70  20   0
Destin      70  84  74  83  74  82  72  87 /   0   0  10  50  50  70  30  10
Evergreen   60  90  68  85  69  83  65  89 /   0   0  30  70  60  70  20  10
Waynesboro  60  89  65  85  66  85  64  89 /   0   0  50  80  60  50  10   0
Camden      60  87  66  83  66  82  64  87 /   0   0  40  80  70  60  20  10
Crestview   61  91  67  86  69  85  65  90 /   0   0  20  60  50  70  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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