850
AWUS01 KWNH 080410
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-081008-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0238
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 AM EDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...northern Kentucky, southern Ohio, southern
Indiana, far western West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 080408Z - 081008Z

Summary...A focused band of training convection was producing
spots of 1 inch/hr and 2-3 inch/3-hr rain rates especially across
southern Ohio.  The heavy rainfall will likely result in at least
isolated instances of flash flooding across the discussion area
through 10Z.

Discussion...Training convection has materialized along an axis
generally extending from Cincinnati to Bloomington, IN over the
past couple hours.  The orientation of the convection is favorably
parallel to steering flow aloft to promote areas of training and
heavier rainfall even as the band begins to very slowly shift
southward over time.  Updrafts within the convective band are
being supported by appreciable (40kt) southwesterly low-level
flow) and a very moist/unstable airmass characterized by 1.5 inch
PW values and 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE - highest with southwestward
extent across southern Indiana.

Rain rates within this band have been in the 1-1.5 inch/hr range
and 2-3 inch/3-hr range.  These rates are expected to continue -
even as the convective band migrates slowly south through 10Z.
These rates will also threaten FFG thresholds across the region,
which are as low as 1-1.5 inch/3-hr across northern Kentucky and
West Virginia.  Given the ongoing scenario, flash flooding is
likely to occur in a few areas across the discussion area, and a
special update to the excessive rainfall outlook has been
disseminated with an upgrade to Slight Risk for the general area.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39728334 39588193 39238092 38448067 37828095
            37688255 37588383 37488627 37548756 38148787
            39178750 39368650 39688484