805
AWUS01 KWNH 090155
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-090600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Southern IND...Northwest KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090155Z - 090600Z

SUMMARY...Quick moving MCS with intense sub-hourly 1-2" totals
with trailing line that may orient favorably for training while
crossing wet soils.  Spots of 1-3" totals may result in possible
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um denotes a compact
cluster of severe thunderstorms with well defined bow crossing out
of S IL into SW IND.  An attendant flanking line also continues to
generate sufficient surface moisture convergence to develop new
rapidly cooling tops below -60C.  Cell motions are very rapid to
the east, but are generating along the western interface of a
surface ridge and south of a secondary northern stream warm front
that appears to exist from HUF to BMG to CVG.

A pool of modest remaining instability (1000 J/kg of MLCAPE)
exists in the proximity to the frontal zone though central KY has
been worked over pretty well. Solid moisture flux of 1.75" with
30-35kts of inflow at mid-levels ,should support intense rates up
to 2"/hr. However, duration is likely to be the issue given
forward speed.   In addition, the concern is area has seen recent
heavy rainfall and an additional 1-2" in sub-hourly will not
infiltrate well and run off quickly, especially further west.
However, current orientation of the trailing flanking line is
fairly parallel to deeper layer steering WSW flow and may allow
for a streak of 1-3" totals through similarly saturated grounds.
This is a narrow window of time before the remaining instability
is exhausted, but the risk for a couple instances of low-end flash
flooding will remain possible for the next few hours.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39058642 39018508 38748434 37988421 37458456
            37198515 37248603 37638747 38058788 38938726