Text Products for FWS Issued by MQT

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS73 KMQT 232120
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Mormon Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Marquette MI
520 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

After this evening`s showery/windy/colder weather, there
will be no precipitation Wednesday and Thursday as high
pressure overspreads the region.  A more unsettled pattern
will set up for the weekend, however.  Temperatures will be
below normal on Wednesday and closer to normal Thursday.
Northerly winds of 5 to 10 mph Wednesday will become southerly
by Thursday.  Lake breeze could result in wind shift though on
Thursday.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........38 at ignition...Max 46.
RH..................37 percent at ignition...Min 25 percent.
Dewpoint............12.
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 6 to 9 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3500-4400
                    ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Good (517) at ignition. Max...good (517.0).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......25.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   1   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............38  40  43  44  45  46  45
Dewpoint........14  12  12  11  11  12  12
RH..............37  31  28  26  25  25  26
33 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
33 ft wind spd..9   9   9   9   8   8   8
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   7   6   6   6
Wind gust.......11  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VIndx kt-ft/100.52  50  49  42  39  35  30
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 23.
RH..................Max 71 percent.
Dewpoint............15.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds up to 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......2800-3900 ft AGL decreasing to 100-1900 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (2.0-236.0).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............44  43  39  35  32  28  27  26  24  25  25  25
Dewpoint........13  13  13  15  16  16  16  16  16  16  16  17
RH..............28  29  34  43  51  60  63  65  71  68  68  71
33 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
33 ft wind spd..6   6   6   3   3   3   1   1   1   2   2   2
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   2   2   2   1   1   1   2   2   2
Wind gust.......7   7   7   4   4   4   2   2   2
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 3.4 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.24  17  11  8   4   1   0   1   1   1   1   1
Ceiling (kft)...

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 52.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Dewpoint............20 increasing to 24 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south up to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1900 ft AGL increasing to 3700-4900 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (3.0-443.0).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........6      4      3      3      4      15
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............27     30     41     48     51     50
Dewpoint........18     21     23     25     25     25
RH..............68     69     48     40     36     37
33 ft wind......SW 2   SW 2   S 7    S 10   S 10   S 10
20 ft wind......SW 2   SW 2   S 6    S 8    S 8    S 8
Wind gust.......              8      12     12     13
Mix hgt (ft)....100    300    1900   3700   4900   4400
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      5
VIndx kt-ft/100.1      2      13     25     39     44
Ceiling (kft)...

$$
Forecaster...TDUD
Requested by...Zachary Parmentier
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412061.0/MQT
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL zachary.m.parmentier@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
