Text Products for FWS Issued by MQT

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS73 KMQT 231625
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Lake LeVasseur Rx Burn...MI-DNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1225 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...After today`s sharp change from sunny/mild in the
morning to showery/windy/colder in the afternoon...high pressure
building into the upper Great Lakes should provide for a precipitation-
free couple of days before turning wetter/unsettled for the weekend.
Temperatures will be chilly by late April standards for Wednesday
but will be closer to normal Thursday.  Winds not expected to be
a concern for the most part...becoming southerly on Thursday with
the only question as to whether the lake breeze will switch winds
around to the north later Thursday afternoon.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........33 at ignition...Max 38.
RH..................48 percent at ignition...Min 35 percent.
Dewpoint............13.
33-foot winds.......Winds northeast at 12 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northeast winds 7 to 12
                    mph.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2700-3700
                    ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Good (460) at ignition. Max...good (460.0).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......25 late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   5   3   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............33  34  36  37  37  36  36
Dewpoint........15  14  13  12  12  12  11
RH..............48  43  39  35  35  35  36
33 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
33 ft wind spd..12  10  10  10  7   7   7
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..10  8   8   8   6   6   6
Wind gust.......13  11  11  11  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VIndx kt-ft/100.46  44  41  32  27  18  14
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 24.
RH..................Max 71 percent.
Dewpoint............15 increasing to 17 overnight.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    south 5 to 8 mph overnight.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    south up to 6 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL decreasing to 200-300 ft AGL
                    overnight.
Ventilation index...Poor (19.0).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   2   2   3   3   4   5   5   6   6   5   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............35  34  33  32  30  28  28  27  26  27  27  27
Dewpoint........13  15  16  17  17  17  18  18  18  18  17  17
RH..............40  44  50  53  58  63  65  68  71  69  68  67
33 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
33 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
Wind gust.......8   8   8   6   6   6   7   7   7   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VIndx kt-ft/100.9   6   3   2   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3
Ceiling (kft)...

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 33 percent.
Dewpoint............19 increasing to 28.
33-foot winds.......South winds 8 to 12 mph.
20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......100-1300 ft AGL increasing to 4600-5700 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (10.0-458.0) increasing to
                    excellent (600.0) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........5      6      5      5      7      9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............28     31     42     50     55     54
Dewpoint........18     20     23     25     26     28
RH..............64     63     47     38     33     36
33 ft wind......S 8    S 8    S 8    S 9    S 9    S 12
20 ft wind......S 6    S 6    S 6    S 7    S 7    S 10
Wind gust.......10     10     10     10     10     13
Mix hgt (ft)....100    300    1300   3400   5500   5500
Haines index....4      5      4      4      5      6
VIndx kt-ft/100.2      3      12     30     60     71
Ceiling (kft)...

$$
Forecaster...JPB
Requested by...Rob Shields
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411988.0/MQT
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL shieldsr1@michigan.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
